How Should the Red Sox Handle Triston Casas Ahead of 2026?

The case of Triston Casas puts the Boston Red Sox in a difficult position.

As the team decides whether to play or deal him come 2026, Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow and Co. have three options: take Casas’ last two underperforming seasons at face value and dump him, keep him under the assumption he’ll return to his old self, or trade him to a team willing to exchange someone Boston deems more valuable. 

The 25-year-old first baseman has not completed a full season since 2023. He missed four months of the 2024 season with a rib fracture and played just over a month of 2025 before rupturing his patellar tendon. 

In those short seasons, he slashed .241/.337/.462 for an .800 OPS (124 OPS+) and .182/.277/.303 for a .580 OPS (62 OPS+), respectively. He also scored a 0.6 (2024) and -0.9 (2025) bWAR across the two seasons. His defensive metrics were poor, as he produced -2 OAA in 2024 and -3 OAA in 2025.

He wasn’t living up to the hype.

He wasn’t playing like a Red Sox No. 26 overall pick; like someone who played for the 18U U.S. National Team; who won the WBSC’s international baseball Player of the Year award; who, in the years leading up to his draft, recorded a slash line of .416/.555/.791 with 11 HR and 52 RBI in 52 high school games.

He also hadn’t played a 162-game sample, making his underperformance hard to take at face value. The last time he played a close-to-full season in 2023, he got the job done. 

In 132 games, he slashed .263/.367/.490 for an .856 OPS (129 OPS+). He also posted a 2.2 bWAR, his highest in a big league season. 

Casas Did It Once. Can He Do It Again?

In his injured seasons, Casas only played 63 and 29 games.

Maybe he is a player who, in proper health and with time to overcome his slumps and make adjustments, could thrive. The problem with this supposition is that even his best season was a relatively small sample, meaning that his exceptional performance could have been a one-off. 

On the other hand, it was the season in which he played the most games, and the fact that he posted good numbers in his largest sample could mean Casas will morph into a valuable asset again. 

If Breslow and Co. had a larger sample of Triston Casas data to work, it would be much easier to determine his value. 

So, can he do it again? Only time will tell. And only Breslow and Co. have the power to answer in a way that determines his future. 

If Breslow and Co. Think He Can’t

In this case, Breslow can search for another team that is willing to give up assets for Casas. If the Cardinals value Casas for his past performance and not what he’s done most, Willson Contreras is a feasible trade target for Boston. 

In 2025, the 33-year-old slashed .257/.344/.447 for a .791 OPS (123 OPS+). He posted a 2.5 bWAR. 

While he spent 2025 at first base, he was previously a catcher. This is another spot at which the Red Sox could use some offensive assistance. 

One Red Sox catcher, Connor Wong, slashed .190/.262/.238 for a .500 OPS (42 OPS+) and -0.6 bWAR last season. His counterpart, Carlos Narváez, started the year hot but regressed for a season slash of .241/.306/.419, a .726 OPS (100 OPS+), and a 2.6 bWAR.

So, if the Sox want a fresh first baseman who can also catch, if they are not willing to risk it with Casas, and if St. Louis thinks Casas can regain his 2023 form, this trade could appeal to both sides. It would be a massive help for the Red Sox. 

Another option for Boston is to sign a free agent first baseman. Pete Alonso and Josh Naylor are off the board, but Ryan O’Hearn is still available. Cody Bellinger can also play first base.

If the Red Sox choose to go this route, they could option Casas to the minors, look for a trade partner, or, if it came to it, they could designate him for assignment. Another team would almost surely claim him off waivers.

If Breslow and Co. Think He Can

Casas could surprise Red Sox nation. He could pull a Trevor Story.

Story had not played a full season with Boston until 2025 due to injuries, but he managed to put up a 3.8 bWAR and slashed .263/.308/.433 for a .741 OPS (104 OPS+) this past year.

They could keep him as their first baseman and focus on trading an outfielder, most likely Gold Glover Wilyer Abreu or 2023 All-Star Jarren Duran. With such a deal, they could add some veteran help for the rotation or bullpen.

Whatever happens to Casas, it all depends on one thing: Does Breslow think he can be his 2023 self again?