Four Reasons the Blue Jays Defied Odds To Win the AL East

At the beginning of the 2025 season, it felt like this could be the beginning of the end for the Toronto Blue Jays. FanGraphs had them with a 42% chance to make the playoffs and a 14.8% chance to win the division. At the same time, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was set to hit free agency at season’s end.

The idea of Vlad’s absence beyond this year, before his 14-year, $500 million extension was agreed to in early April, made this year feel do-or-die for Toronto. If it were one last chance with their franchise icon, they needed to make it count.

Fortunately, this early-season deal put that doom and gloom off the table, but the team’s performance early in the season didn’t add much positivity. At the end of play on May 27, the Jays sat at 26-28, eight games behind the division-leading New York Yankees. Their division odds sank as low as 2.8%, and their playoff odds as low as 22.6%.

There are several reasons across this roster why the Blue Jays played the last four months of the season with the best record in the AL and locked up the AL East and the AL’s number one seed in the playoffs.

Veteran Resurgences

When Toronto went 74-88 in 2024 and finished in the cellar of the AL East, the offense behind Vlad Jr. was a big reason why. The team outside of its first baseman slashed .231/.303/.369/.672 for a 93 wRC+, which would’ve been 24th in baseball. Guerrero needed the supporting cast he expected in 2025, and George Springer and Bo Bichette answered the call.

In one of the most remarkable resurgences we’ve ever seen, Springer, who recently turned 36, just polished off one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from him. His 166 wRC+ set a new career high, and his 5.2 fWAR was his best since 2019. In every facet of offense, he looked like the George Springer of old this year. He posted career highs in barrel rate (16.1%), hard hit rate (47.6%), and his 11.8% walk rate was also his highest in six years.

This was perhaps the year that Springer made the best swing decisions of his career. 78.3% of his swings came against pitches in the strike zone, the highest rate he’s posted since he debuted in 2014. His career-low 20.4% chase rate aided this feat.

Springer did his job better than ever on the most hittable pitches. Against pitches in Statcast’s definition of the “heart” of the strike zone, he hit .413 and slugged .795. It marked a career high in batting average and his highest slugging since 2021. His 4.5 RV/100 against these pitches was not only a career high, but it ranked second in the majors among hitters to see at least 500 such pitches.

Springer’s comeback year wasn’t just his best year with the Blue Jays – it was one of the best seasons we’ve ever seen from him.

After a sub-.600 OPS season in 2024, Bichette came back in a big way this year. He ended the regular season slashing .311/.357/.483/.840 for a 134 wRC+ in 628 PAs. It was the best offensive output he’s posted in a full MLB season. He did this by bringing back his vintage self.

With a high line drive rate, career low 14% strikeout rate, and increased power numbers, Bichette posted a .307 expected batting average, the second time in his career landing over .300 in that category. It landed fourth among qualified hitters.

One of the areas where Bichette’s numbers fell off a cliff in 2024 was when facing breaking balls and offspeed pitches. He not only brought those abilities back this year, but was one of the best in the league at crushing non-fastballs.

Bo Bichette vs Breaking + Offspeed by Year

Among the 188 hitters to face at least 750 breaking balls and offspeed pitches this year, Bichette ranked second in average, 10th in slugging and 10th in RV/100. His 2025 resurgence was fueled by a revived skill of hitting and driving these pitches.

The Baby Jay Boom

Among the major contributors to the Blue Jays’ surprise season were Addison Barger and Ernie Clement, two pieces that were not expected to be this vital to the team.

Barger, 25, slashed .243/.301/.454/.756 in his first full big league season. His 76 mph average bat speed, 51% hard-hit rate, and 91.7 mph average exit velocity indicate more could be on the way in the future.

The third base/right field hybrid hit .197 with a .601 OPS in 225 plate appearances throughout 2024. His breakout was powered by a stance change that came about this year.

Barger opened his stance from 15 degrees in 2024 to 54 degrees in 2025, giving him one of the most open stances in the majors. Between years, it helped him raise his average bat speed by one mile per hour, up his barrel rate by 3%, and improve his slugging percentage by over 100 points.

As for Clement, his relentless ability to pull the ball allowed him to exceed expectations.

Although he doesn’t have overwhelming power, Clement pulled the ball in the air enough to make it matter this year. His 22.2% pulled air rate was nearly identical last year, but his ability to sustain it over 588 plate appearances allowed for his consistency.

But where Clement really shone was wherever he was put in the infield. He tallied at least 15 games at first, second, third and short, becoming just the seventh player to do so in a season. His 13 Outs Above Average ranked tied for 13th in the sport.

Overall, Clement overperformed his expected success rate in the field by 3%, converting 80% of possible plays. He maintained above-average numbers at all four of the infield positions, making him one of the most dynamic defenders in the game and one of the most important fielders in an already stacked Blue Jays defense.

Kevin Gausman’s Return to Acehood

Kevin Gausman’s 2024 season was underwhelming. At age 33, his 107 ERA+ and 3.77 FIP were subpar compared to the rest of his Blue Jays tenure. Although much of his 2025 looked like more of the same, he snapped back into ace form down the stretch.

In his final 17 starts of the regular season, Gausman posted a 2.78 ERA and 3.02 FIP in 107 innings. Among the 54 qualifying starting pitchers in that span, he ranked 10th in ERA, ninth in FIP, second in innings pitched, and his 2.9 fWAR ranked tied for third in the majors and led the AL.

For years, Gausman’s success was defined by an elite four-seam fastball. But in 2024, that success wasn’t there. That year, opponents hit .281 and slugged .475 off his four-seamer with even better expected numbers. This year, they hit .230 and slugged .380, a 95-point drop in opponents’ slugging.

Gausman’s best secondary was also a big success for him in 2025. Against his splitter, opponents hit .181 and slugged .294 with an 82.8 mph average exit velocity and 38.6% whiff rate.

Gausman sacrificed some of his splitter’s velocity in exchange for movement to bring it back to form. Between 2024 and 2025, it went from an average velocity of 86 mph to 84.9 mph. However, its average downward movement rose from 30.9 inches to 33.8 inches. The result was a 5% increase in whiff rate.

Bullpen Breakouts

The Blue Jays bullpen was abysmal in 2024. With a 4.82 ERA and 4.84 FIP as a unit, the Jays’ -2.1 bullpen fWAR was overwhelmingly the worst in baseball. In 2025, they posted a sub-4.00 ERA and FIP, good enough to be around the middle of the pack. While Toronto’s bullpen may not be show-stopping, it is a significant upgrade over last year.

The Jays added Jeff Hoffman to be their closer ahead of this season. Although that signing hasn’t worked out to perfection, he’s had plenty of support around him. Guys like Brendon Little, Braydon Fisher, Tommy Nance, Eric Lauer and Seranthony Domínguez all posted an ERA below 3.05 for the Blue Jays out of the ‘pen this season.

Little led Blue Jays relievers with a 1.3 fWAR in his 68.1 innings pitched. In those innings, he struck out 91 batters while posting an impressive 43.5% whiff rate and 59.9% groundball rate. With an above-average chase rate, Little posted a remarkable 70.8% whiff rate on pitches out of the zone, the highest among the 4,717 individual seasons since 2008 with at least 500 outside pitches thrown. Walks are a byproduct of his struggles to throw the ball in the zone, but he is unhittable at all times.

Fisher’s 1.85 ERA out of the bullpen was the sixth-lowest among qualified relievers this year. He has a slider that he throws primarily to righties, and a curveball that he throws primarily to lefties. Both pitches had a sub-.200 batting average against and sub-.300 slugging percentage against throughout the season.

Nance posted a sub-2.00 ERA and FIP throughout his 31.2 innings pitched this year, Lauer threw 30.2 innings out of the ‘pen with a 1.76 ERA, and Domínguez posted a 3.00 ERA in 21 innings after being traded over from Baltimore.

These improvements across the roster by the Blue Jays allowed them to win an unexpected AL East title. They will need to be firing on all aspects like this throughout October to make a deep postseason run and bring the World Series back to Canada