Top Five Pitchers To Avoid Drafting in Fantasy for 2025

Everyone is trying to find the most value when it comes to sleepers. Paying cheap prices for large production is always a recipe for success in fantasy baseball. Fantasy managers always try to get the most bang for their buck.

But how about those guys who are charging too much for their services? While evaluating potential 2025 busts, I’d like everyone to think about the following five pitchers inside the Top 150 ADP and ask yourself one thing: Does the price match the results?

Avoid These Pitchers in Your Fantasy Baseball Draft

Jack Flaherty Has a Low Floor – ADP #142

Jack Flaherty finds himself back with the Detroit Tigers after helping the Dodgers win a 2024 World Series title.

Many were critical of Flaherty before last season as a result of his awful 2023 tenure with Baltimore and the fact that we hadn’t seen ace-type success out of him since 2019. He responded by becoming the most added starting pitcher in fantasy baseball in early 2024, sitting down batters one after the other.

His second half with Los Angeles wasn’t quite as sharp, though it got the job done. So, we should expect the same out of him in 2025, correct?

Incorrect. I would be much more comfortable with Flaherty if he landed around an ADP of 200. His price nowadays is simply too expensive for the pitcher we know him to be. He is not an ace.

Flaherty’s ceiling is SP2 in big league rotations, while the floor can stoop pretty low when he’s not locating his stuff. His ERA versus righties (3.91) was surprisingly much higher than against southpaws (2.58). The improved slider was great in the first half last season until teams started catching on when it came to his pitch mix, causing some regression down the stretch.

There are just too many starting pitchers with better upside being drafted behind Flaherty: Jared Jones, Sandy Alcantara, and Cristopher Sánchez. He also has not been the most durable guy thus far in his career, failing to ever reach 200 innings pitched.

He’s back in his pitcher-friendly Comerica Park, yet I’m fully out on Flaherty in 2025.

Carlos Rodón Is Streaky – ADP #136

Just in the past week, this Yankees team has been decimated with injuries. Ace Gerrit Cole is out with Tommy John surgery in addition to Luis Gil missing significant time to begin the year. This thrusts Max Fried into the no. 1 role, making Carlos Rodón their no. 2.

If I were a Yankee fan, that simply would not sit well with me. Rodón is not the player New York thought they were getting back when they signed him. If there’s one word to describe his tenure in the Bronx so far? Streaky.

The 6.85 ERA in 64.1 innings back in 2023 was ugly. We thought he would regain his ace self last season, only to deliver a 3.96 ERA, a figure not supported very well considering his xERA was 4.14, in addition to a 4.39 FIP.

And to be honest, when I look at the career numbers, I don’t think we should be surprised by the underperformance. A 1.25 WHIP is much higher than where I thought his 162-game average would have landed. Rodón’s K/9 with the White Sox and Giants was around 12.0, dropping to 9.0 in 2023 and 10.0 in 2024.

He doesn’t have the wipeout stuff he once did, plus the velocity has continually dipped. He’s still getting whiffs, and batters often chase at the offerings. However, the loud contact and exit velocity given up by him have been evident in the last two seasons.

Just like with Flaherty, there are too many options being drafted after Carlos. If you’re giving me a choice between Bryan Woo and Carlos Rodón, give me Woo all day long. I’ll always choose upside with a bit of injury risk compared to streakiness and inconsistent results with weakening metrics across the board. 

Tanner Bibee Is a Workhorse, Not an Ace – ADP #100

Any time a guy is being drafted within the top 100, it puts a whole new target on his back. The earlier someone is taken, the more value they should return for your team.

Tanner Bibee isn’t my least favorite pitcher on this list, though I don’t like some of the traits he often shows. Many of those habits showed in the 2024 ALCS, causing the Guardians to pull Bibee early when they crucially needed him to perform.

Here’s my problem: Bibee is being drafted like an ace with elite bat-missing skills instead of the workhorse he is. To his credit, Bibee tossed 173.2 innings with a 3.47 ERA. To me, that sounds like a pitcher who goes more in the 150-175 ADP range. But Top 100? Let’s be real here, people.

His 2023 K/9 was 8.9, while the 2024 mark landed at 9.7. If I’m investing in a starting pitcher at such a high price, I want them to give me strikeouts. I want them to be able to avoid serious contact.

Batters don’t often chase at his stuff, and the groundball rate was one of the worst in the majors. Surrendering that many fly balls and line drives without an amazing ability to miss bats is a recipe for disaster. Especially when I see Tyler Glasnow, Logan Webb, and Zac Gallen being taken after Bibee. 

Roki Sasaki Needs Time To Adjust – ADP #95

No matter how big and bad Japanese pitchers are, there’s no perfect way to prepare for facing MLB batters. Learning what hitters go after and their overall habits is something that truly takes time for international talent. Plate approach is completely different, which could cause Roki Sasaki to struggle in his first season. 

There’s no doubt about it, Roki Sasaki has one of the most talented arms around. The splitter is maybe the nastiest pitch I’ve seen so far in spring training. But he is more of a dynasty league target in my eyes compared to redraft leagues.

Sasaki will most likely improve as the year progresses. However, those outings early on are important for your squad, and I wouldn’t take a chance on him. After all, why would we?

Spencer Schwellenbach, who has already proven he can pitch like an ace in the majors, is being taken in the exact same round. Luis Castillo, a proven major league pitcher with ace upside, is being taken a round later. Same goes for Joe Ryan, Hunter Greene, and Hunter Brown. I’ll take every single one of those guys before I take the unnecessary risk on Sasaki.

Blake Snell Is Too Inconsistent – #49

Not sure if I’ve ever come across a more confusing pitcher in my time as a baseball fan. Because in terms of success, I have no answers.

Blake Snell has won two Cy Young Awards (2018 and 2023), while every other season of his has arguably been disappointing. Even last season, a late signing with the San Francisco Giants caused his first half to net horrible results. He later turned it on, though the overall profile is just odd and untrustworthy. 

I don’t care how many awards you win. If you’re being taken inside the Top 50 ADP, I need you to have a walk rate lower than his 4.1 career average. He doesn’t give into throwing strikes to guys he doesn’t want to challenge, electing to face other hitters in the lineup. But what happens when he faces deep lineups?

I’ve seen this habit come back to bite him before, and I will never be able to trust his style of pitching at such an expensive price. Do not forget that Snell has finished with an ERA over 4.00 three separate times throughout his career.

And as far as durability goes? Forget about it. Even with the eventual six-man rotation Los Angeles hopes to implement, Snell is not a workhorse. He rarely pitches past the fifth inning. 49th overall is a massive ask for someone who isn’t consistent and has an extreme habit of issuing free passes. Sign me up for Framber Valdez or Michael King two rounds later.