Why the Twins Should Trade Pablo Lopez
As the Minnesota Twins look to cut payroll, they should consider trading ace Pablo Lopez for the right return.

The Twins are currently in quite a unique situation. The team is up for sale, but there has been no indication that a deal will happen anytime soon. The Pohlad family, who is still in control, have made it clear that cutting payroll is a priority.
If that remains the case, the Twins should consider moving Pablo Lopez.
There have been whispers all off-season that the Twins are listening on stars Carlos Correa and Pablo Lopez. Shedding payroll seems to be of the utmost importance to the Minnesota Twins ownership.
If they are indeed going to go this route, Pablo Lopez is the best candidate to move.
There are a couple of reasons that the Twins should consider moving Lopez. First is that the Twins would be trading from a strength. The Minnesota Twins have a plethora of young and controllable pitching. Lopez would also command good value on the trade market.
Here is a dive into what trading Pablo Lopez would mean for the Minnesota Twins.
The Twins Can Stomach a Lopez Trade
Trading an ace is always going to sting. However, the Twins do have a strong rotation and it is filled with controllable arms. Rookies Simeon Woods-Richardson, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews all showed promise last season.
Not to mention established starters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober who have multiple years of control.
Last season the Twins starting rotation had some unique stats. They finished the year ranked second in both strikeout rate and walk rate.
Their ERA however ranked 22nd which is far from impressive. Part of that is due to a rather atrocious home run rate which ranked 25th in baseball. Their xFIP which normalizes home run rate indicated a fair amount of bad luck as they ranked fifth.
Long story short, this unit has the tools to be successful even if they were to move off of Pablo Lopez. Here are their options for the rotation entering the year:
Player | Age | 2024 Stats | Free Agent |
Joe Ryan – RHP | 28 | 135.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 3.44 xFIP | 2028 |
Bailey Ober – RHP | 29 | 178.2 IP, 3.98 ERA, 3.83 xFIP | 2028 |
Simeon Woods-Richardson – RHP | 24 | 133.2 IP, 4.17 ERA, 4.55 xFIP | 2031 |
Chris Paddack – RHP | 29 | 88.1 IP, 4.99 ERA, 4.09 xFIP | 2026 |
David Festa – RHP | 24 | 64.1 IP, 4.90 ERA, 3.58 xFIP | 2031 |
Zebby Matthews – RHP | 24 | 37.2 IP, 6.69 ERA, 4.05 xFIP | 2031 |
Marco Raya – RHP* | 22 | 97.2 IP, 4.05 ERA, 4.01 xFIP | N/A |
Stats do not often tell the full story and added context is helpful. Ryan struggled with injuries to finish the year, which led to his lower inning output. Woods-Richardson showed really well in his first 100 innings or so before ultimately running out of gas down the stretch.
The Twins also called up Festa and Matthews in the middle of a playoff race, asking them to make big starts. That is not exactly the most conducive environment to make your debut. Especially considering Matthews started the year in High-A.
Both should improve with a full major league spring training.
The Twins will still be able to field a competitive rotation from the players listed. Not to mention Louie Varland and Brent Headrick, who should be primarily bullpen arms but can make starts if necessary.
Financial Flexibility
Lopez currently has three years and $65.25 million left on his contract. Trading him this offseason would free up $21.75 million in payroll for this season. That would take their projected payroll down to $118 million, which is $12 million less than what their final payroll was in 2024.
That freed up money could allow the Twins to get a little creative with the remaining free agents that are available. Particularly, the Twins need a right-handed outfield bat.
Currently the Twins are slated to start Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner in the corners. Larnach has a career wRC+ of 60 against left-handed pitching. Wallner on the other hand has a 44 wRC+ against lefties in his career but a mark of 80 in 2024 shows some promise.
The Twins are in desperate need of a right-handed outfielder.
Austin Hays is a name that comes to mind. Last season he hit .354 with a 167 wRC+ against lefties. He also plays good defense in a corner. This would be a perfect fit to fill the short-end of a platoon with Larnach.
Another option would be Randal Grichuk. He hit .319 with a 151 wRC+ against lefties last season. In contrast to Hays however, Grichuk can hit righties as well. A 116 wRC+ last season shows that. He also does not strike out much, which would provide a nice contrast to Wallner.
That is just an idea for what the money could be used for in the short-term. There is flexibility in the long-term as well.
For starters, they could offer Joe Ryan an extension. Ryan has been a good performer in Minnesota and when he is on, he has frontline starter stuff. Buying out his final two years of arbitration could likely secure him for the foreseeable future at a nice discount.
At the end of the day, these are just thoughts and hypotheticals to what trading Lopez would free up financially.
Trade Value
All of the big name free agent starting pitchers have already signed with new teams. The best pitchers currently available are going to be on the trade market.
Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo are the best available options that are being actively shopped. Pablo Lopez would likely command more than either of them.
Cease only has one year of control left and likely won’t command that large of a return.
Castillo is about $3 million more expensive per year with three years of control like Lopez. However, Lopez is three years younger than Castillo with similar stats. He has a higher ERA than Castillo but more innings and a higher fWAR over the last three seasons.
If nothing less, Castillo and Lopez should fetch similar returns.
Yes, $21 million over the next three years might put some teams off but it shouldn’t. A team is going to have to give up some prospect capital to get him but when looking at some similar contracts, it is justified.
There were two contracts signed this off season that you can compare to Lopez. The first is Luis Severino, who signed with the Athletics for three years at $22.3 million per year.
Severino is older than Lopez by two years and has performed significantly worse over the last three seasons. Lopez is coming off a down year and still outperformed Severino who had his best season since 2018.
The other contract is the Sean Manaea deal with the Mets. Manaea is set to make $25 million a year over the next three seasons. Similar to Severino, Manaea is four years older than Lopez and is coming off one of the best years of his career. Despite a career year for Manaea, Lopez was considered more valuable by fWAR.
This should lead the Twins to believe that Lopez will command a strong prospect return. Three years of team control at well under market value should give teams a good reason to part with a sizable prospect package.
Ultimately if you are the Twins, you should only part with Lopez for the right package. Here are two teams who need starting pitching and could field a competitive package.
Atlanta Braves
The Braves are looking to recapture the NL East and that is going to be no small feat.
Philadelphia looks just as strong and the Mets have added Juan Soto. The Braves have also lost starters Charlie Morton and Max Fried. That is a lot of production to replace, and they currently haven’t made any significant additions to boost this rotation.
Pablo Lopez would be a great fit in Atlanta. He would slot in as the number three in the rotation behind Chris Sale and Spencer Strider. This would be one of the best front threes in all of baseball, not to mention Reynaldo Lopez and Spencer Schwellenbach.
The Braves are also currently slated to be $31 million under their 2024 payroll. They can add Lopez and still be $10 million under their previous payroll. If the Braves are serious about contending for another division title they should consider trading for Lopez.
This is a deal that was discussed on the Friday episode of the Just Baseball show. The Braves would send Drake Baldwin (JBB #28) and then another prospect. Currently in Atlanta it is going to be hard to fit Baldwin in with Sean Murphy locked up until 2028.
Baldwin would get a significant amount of playing time in Minnesota as the backup to Ryan Jeffers. Considering the organizational depth at catcher, a package centered around Baldwin would be hard to pass up.
Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles have been incredibly frustrating over the past couple of seasons. They made the move last season for Corbin Burnes, but he is no longer in Baltimore.
This off-season they have added Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano to the rotation. That is not a rotation that should scare anyone.
The addition of Pablo Lopez would give the Orioles the ace that they desperately need. Despite a significantly weaker system than they had last season at this time, they still have the prospects to make a trade like this happen.
Creed Willems is a fan favorite in Baltimore but he does not really have a place with Adley Rutschman and Samuel Bassallo ahead of him. Willems could offer the Twins some more depth at catcher in the organization.
He will be 22 this season and should make it to Triple-A if all goes to plan in 2025.
The Orioles could also offer one of Cade Povich or Chayce McDermott. Povich was drafted by Minnesota but was traded away in the Jorge Lopez deal. Either of these arms would offer Minnesota a young and controllable starter with decent upside.
The final piece would probably have to be one of Baltimore’s outfield prospects. Likely Jud Fabian or 2024 first round pick Vance Honeycutt. It is hard to say if this would be enough for Minnesota to bite.
If it isn’t, they could offer Top 10 JBB prospect Coby Mayo for Lopez. A package centered around Mayo would be hard for Minnesota to turn down and he is currently blocked in Baltimore.
Who’s to tell what is currently on the table for Lopez in trades, but he is available, and could be the best piece for the Twins to move if they need to shed salary while still contending in 2025.