Who Should Win the AL Gold Glove Awards in 2024?

The value of good defense is much harder to quantify than the value of good hitting or pitching. That means selecting the deserving Gold Glove winners can be a difficult task. However, it’s much easier now that we know the three possible winners at each position.

Rawling announced the finalists for the 2024 Gold Glove Awards earlier this week. And despite a few notable snubs, most of the best defensive players in baseball were honored with a selection.

To clarify, a “finalist” for an award like this isn’t the same as a “nominee.” There will be no additional voting. These are simply the top three vote-getters at each position in each league.

The winners have already been decided and will be announced on ESPN on November 3.

Until then, we have a couple of weeks to speculate and debate who will win and who should win the Gold Glove Awards this season.

Here are my picks for the most likely and most deserving winners in the American League.

Catcher

Finalists: Cal Raleigh (SEA), Jake Rogers (DET), Freddy Fermin (KCR)

Cal Raleigh led all AL catchers in games and innings played behind the dish in 2024. He ranked first in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Deserved Runs Prevented (DRP). He also ranked a close second behind Alejandro Kirk in Baseball Savant’s Fielding Run Value (FRV).

Raleigh’s signature skill is pitch framing. He ranked first in the framing metrics at both Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus and a close second behind Jake Rogers in the framing metric at FanGraphs.

If you’re a fan of more traditional stats, no catcher had more putouts or assists. No catcher started more double plays or caught more runners stealing.

• Should win: Cal Raleigh, SEA
• Will win: Cal Raleigh, SEA

First Base

Finalists: Ryan Mountcastle (BAL), Carlos Santana (MIN), Nathaniel Lowe (TEX)

Usually, giving out the Gold Glove at first base is more like picking the least detrimental defender rather than the best defender. In 2024, however, Carlos Santana was genuinely excellent at first.

The veteran racked up 8 DRS, 14 OAA, 11 FRV, and 3.9 DRP, all of which were league-leading totals. He also played more defensive innings than any other AL first baseman in his age-38 season.

• Should win: Carlos Santana, MIN
• Will win: Carlos Santana, MIN

Second Base

Finalists: Andrés Giménez (CLE), Nicky Lopez (CHW), Marcus Semien (TEX)

Andrés Giménez might be the reigning Platinum Glove winner, but this was actually a surprisingly difficult decision. This award could go to Giménez or Marcus Semien, and neither would be the wrong decision.

DRS vastly prefers Giménez, but DRP gives Semien the edge. Meanwhile, the two are neck and neck according to OAA and FRV.

Semien also has the edge in traditional stats; he played more defensive innings at the keystone and made fewer errors. That said, Giménez’s reputation – he’s beaten Semien each of the past two years – ultimately gives him a leg up.

• Should win: Andrés Giménez, CLE
• Will win: Andrés Giménez, CLE

Third Base

Finalists: Alex Bregman (HOU), José Ramírez (CLE), Ernie Clement (TOR)

This is the first time my personal choice differs from who I think will actually take home the hardware. Alex Bregman and José Ramírez finished the season tied in DRS, but Bregman far outproduced Ramírez according to the comprehensive defensive metrics at Baseball Prospects (DRP) and Baseball Savant (FRV).

Bregman also played more games at the position, racking up more putouts, assists, and double plays. He is the deserving winner.

Nevertheless, Ramírez had a better overall season, and he has a better reputation as a defender. I think he wins this one handily.

• Should win: Alex Bregman, HOU
• Will win: José Ramírez, CLE

Shortstop

Finalists: Anthony Volpe (NYY), Brayan Rocchio (CLE), Bobby Witt Jr. (KCR)

Anthony Volpe, Brayan Rocchio, and Bobby Witt Jr. are all talented defensive players. That’s why they play one of the most important positions on the diamond.

Of the three finalists, DRS favors Rocchio, OAA and FRV favor Witt, and DRP favors Volpe. However, Volpe outranks Rocchio in OAA and FRV, and he outranks Witt in DRS. Both Volpe and Witt also finished with a pretty substantial lead over Rocchio in games started and defensive innings at shortstop.

Volpe would be my choice, and in most years, he’d be the clear favorite as the reigning winner. However, Witt’s MVP-caliber campaign will probably give him the voting boost he needs to take home the trophy.

• Should win: Anthony Volpe, NYY
• Will win: Bobby Witt Jr., KCR

Left Field

Finalists: Alex Verdugo (NYY), Colton Cowser (BAL), Steven Kwan (CLE)

Colton Cowser only started 91 games in left field, but he still managed to rank second among all AL left fielders in OAA, FRV, and DRP. The only player who beat him in any of those metrics was Daulton Varsho, who is a finalist in center field instead.

On that note, I think Cowser deserves credit for the 310 innings he played in center and the 73 innings he played in right this season. He racked up an extra OAA at each.

Unfortunately, Cowser is up against Steven Kwan, who has a reputation as one of the best defensive outfielders in the game. His metrics aren’t quite as strong this season, but the two Gold Gloves he already has in his trophy case will help him win a third.

• Should win: Colton Cowser, BAL
• Will win: Steven Kwan, CLE

Center Field

Finalists: Jarren Duran (BOS), Jake Meyers (HOU), Daulton Varsho (TOR)

Daulton Varsho has been, perhaps, the best defensive outfielder in baseball over the past three seasons, but his constant shuttling between positions has kept him from winning a Gold Glove. This could be the year that changes.

Varsho shuttled around once again in 2024, but he settled in as Toronto’s primary center fielder after Kevin Kiermaier left for L.A. He only played 672 innings in center, but he tied for first among AL center fielders in DRS and tied for fourth in FRV.

Overall, Varsho led all AL outfielders in DRS and FRV and ranked fifth in DRP.

The only argument against Varsho is his lack of playing time in center field, but that doesn’t really bother me in this case. The man is long overdue for a Gold Glove.

• Should win: Daulton Varsho, TOR
• Will win: Daulton Varsho, TOR

Right Field

Finalists: Wilyer Abreu (BOS), Juan Soto (NYY), Jo Adell (LAA)

This was a very easy decision. Red Sox rookie Wilyer Abreu led AL right fielders in DRS, OAA, FRV, and DRP. In none of those metrics was it even particularly close. Abreu should – and will – win the Gold Glove in right field.

And while we’re at it, he has a much stronger Rookie of the Year case than you might have realized…

• Should win: Wilyer Abreu, BOS
• Will win: Wilyer Abreu, BOS

Pitcher

Finalists: Cole Ragans (KCR), Seth Lugo (KCR), Griffin Canning (LAA)

This is always the hardest category, since the sample sizes are so much smaller. Not only do pitchers play far less often than position players, but they don’t make nearly as many defensive plays.

Still, there was one name who stood above the rest this season: Seth Lugo. The veteran right-hander led AL pitchers in assists and ranked second in DRS. He did not make a single error all season (and he played a ton). He was also good at controlling the running game, giving up just five stolen bases all year.

• Should win: Seth Lugo, KCR
• Will win: Seth Lugo, KCR

Utility

Finalists: Willi Castro (MIN), Mauricio Dubón (HOU), Dylan Moore (SEA)

This is Mauricio Dubón’s award to lose. After winning his first utility Gold Glove last year, he’s the deserving favorite to take home the prize once more. He spent time at every position except for pitcher and catcher in 2024, compiling 6 DRS, 10 OAA, 7 FRV, and 3.1 DRP.

This could have been another difficult decision, but Dubón makes it easy.

• Should win: Mauricio Dubón, HOU
• Will win: Mauricio Dubón, HOU