Which Free Agents Will (and Won’t) Receive a Qualifying Offer?

Every offseason, Major League Baseball calculates the qualifying offer by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. This year, that number is set at $22.025 million. In less than five days, teams will have to decide which (if any) of their pending free agents are worthy of such an offer.

What’s the incentive for teams to extend the QO? If any player who receives it, rejects it, and then signs elsewhere, his former team receives a compensatory pick in next summer’s draft.

As for the players? Unfortunately, there isn’t much upside. Some might be happy to get the offer (14 free agents have accepted the QO in the last 13 years), but for most, it only drags down their earning power in free agency. Teams that sign free agents who rejected a QO are penalized with lost draft picks, and sometimes slashed international bonus pool space too.

A total of 144 players have received the qualifying offer since the system was put in place during the 2012-13 offseason. That’s an average of just over 11 per year. Last year, 13 players recevied a qualifying offer and all but one rejected it, with the Reds’ Nick Martinez the only exception.

So, who might receive a QO this time around? Let’s talk about which of this year’s free agents are eligible for the qualifying offer, and of those eligible players, which ones are likely to receive and/or reject it.

Qualifying Offer Candidates

Locks

• Kyle Tucker
• Bo Bichette
• Dylan Cease
• Framber Valdez
• Kyle Schwarber
• Ranger Suárez
• Edwin Díaz

No explanation necessary. These are star-caliber players who are sure to command much more than $22 million on the open market. Their former teams have no reason not to extend the qualifying offer to secure draft pick compensation next summer.

The only instance in which any of these players might not receive and reject a qualifying offer is if they re-sign with their former team within five days of the end of the World Series. That’s what happened the last time Edwin Díaz reached free agency, which is why he’s still eligible for a QO this winter.

Near Locks

• Michael King
• Zac Gallen

Michael King and Zac Gallen should receive the QO, unless the Padres and Diamondbacks know something the rest of us don’t. King struggled with injury throughout 2025, while Gallen struggled through the worst season of his career.

Based on their track records, both pitchers are easily worth a one-year, $22.025 million commitment. Yet, there is a small possibility the Padres could be concerned about King’s long-term health and/or the D-backs could be worried about Gallen continuing to regress.

Close Calls

• Brandon Woodruff
• Trent Grisham
• Devin Williams
• Robert Suarez
• Gleyber Torres
• Jack Flaherty*
• Lucas Giolito*

These are all players who should comfortably out-earn $22.025 million in guaranteed money this winter, but the big question for their former teams is whether they’re worth that much for a single season.

Brandon Woodruff is an ace-caliber pitcher with serious injury concerns. If he played for a wealthier team, I might have him in the “near lock” category, but this is the Brewers, who might be hesitant to offer a $22 million AAV to a healthy pitcher.

Trent Grisham enjoyed a terrific walk year with the Yankees, but this was the first time since his breakout in 2020 that he’s looked like the kind of player who might earn a QO. How sustainable was his success? That’s what the Yankees will have to decide.

As for Devin Williams, he would have seemed like a QO lock at this time last year, but he struggled like never before in his lone year in the Bronx. The underlying numbers suggest he’s going to bounce back, but $22.025 is a high price tag for a reliever who comes with any sort of performance questions.

To that point, Robert Suarez is on this list despite coming off the best year of his career. Why? Because only the very top tier of relievers command $20+ million salaries. We know Suarez is great, but he’s also in his mid-thirties. Is he one of the game’s upper-crust elite closers? That’s the $22.025 million question.

Gleyber Torres signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Tigers last offseason, and he played well enough to make that contract look like a steal. That, along with the fact that he’s still under 30, should position him to receive a raise this winter.

Whether that raise should be more than $7 million, however, is a close call. The Tigers might also just prefer to spend that money elsewhere. With that said, Torres probably wants a multi-year deal after settling for a prove-it contract last year, so Detroit might just take the slight risk and extend him the offer, hoping he’ll decline.

Jack Flaherty and Lucas Giolito both have contract options worth slightly less than the qualifying offer. Flaherty’s is a $20 million player option, while Giolito’s is a $19 million mutual option. If either pitcher decides to opt out of his deal, there’s a good chance he’ll receive a qualifying offer.

It’s Possible

• Jorge Polanco
• Tyler Mahle

Both Jorge Polanco and Tyler Mahle looked better than ever in 2025.

In Polanco’s case, there’s no doubt he put up a QO-worthy campaign. However, none of his three previous seasons were on the same level. If the Mariners believe he can replicate his 2025 numbers, there’s a chance they’ll give him the offer. But if they’re more convinced by his overall numbers from a 12-year MLB career, they’re probably going to pass.

As for Mahle, his 2.18 ERA was easily a career-best. The problem? He only made 16 starts. A healthy Mahle is worth $22 million, but we’re talking about a pitcher who made three starts in 2024 and five in 2023. He’s only surpassed 25 starts and 130 innings once in his big league tenure. It’s a question of upside vs. dependability, and I don’t think his ceiling is high enough to outweigh the injury risk.

Not Happening

• Luis Arraez
• Emilio Pagán

The Luis Arraez of 2022-23 would have been a lock for a qualifying offer, but his offense has declined in the last two years. His .303 batting average from 2024-25 is still impressive, but not impressive enough to make up for the fact that he doesn’t contribute in any other ways. Few everyday players walk less often or hit for less power, and Arraez is a non-factor on the bases and in the field.

If the Padres made him a qualifying offer, he’d probably accept and look to rebuild his value in 2026. There’s no way San Diego wants to be on the hook for that salary.

Emilio Pagán performed well enough in 2025 that I decided to include him on this list. In 70 games for the Reds, he racked up 32 saves with a 2.88 ERA and a matching 2.88 xERA. That’s a damn good year.

Still, if closers like Williams and Suarez are only in the “close calls” category, there’s no way Pagán is getting a QO. He’ll be 35 next year, and he’s not exactly known for his consistency.

Who Can’t Get the Qualifying Offer?

Previously Received QO

Players who have previously received a qualifying offer are ineligible to receive another. Only a handful of the free agents listed below would have been realistic QO candidates this winter anyway, but just in case you know someone who’s trying to argue that the Blue Jays should give Max Scherzer a qualifying offer, you can use this list to shut that down.

• Alex Bregman
• Cody Bellinger
• Pete Alonso
• J.T. Realmuto
• Chris Bassitt
• Nick Martinez
• Raisel Iglesias
• Kenley Jansen
• Justin Verlander
• Marcell Ozuna
• Max Scherzer

Switched Teams In-Season

Players are only eligible to receive a qualifying offer if they spent the complete preceding season with one team. Some of these free agents would have made for interesting QO discussions (and others not so much), but those conversations will have to wait for a future offseason.

• Shane Bieber
• Eugenio Suárez
• Josh Naylor
• Harrison Bader
• Ryan O’Hearn
• Merrill Kelly
• Kyle Finnegan
• Ryan Helsley