Taj Bradley: Next in the Long Line of Tampa Aces

The Tampa Bay Rays, after an uncharacteristically slow start, have quietly been playing much better baseball, posting winning records in May, June, and July, all while creeping back into the expanded wildcard hunt. This lines up with the return of Taj Bradley, the 23-year-old who is in the midst of a breakout campaign.

In his rookie year last year, Bradley struggled to the tune of 5.59 ERA across his 21 starts. While his 4.71 FIP suggested that his ERA was inflated beyond the level at which he was performing, he has seen essentially every statistic improve this season.

Bradley has dropped his WHIP by .3, as it now sits at just a 1.08 compared to his 1.38 a season ago. He’s seen his hits per nine drop by 2.4, and has significantly limited the long ball this season, as his home runs per nine have dropped from 2.0 to 1.2. All of this has resulted in a much-improved 3.07 ERA, a 2.52 run improvement.

Taj Bradley Is the Next Big Rays Ace

One thing Bradley has always been able to do is strike hitters out, with a double-digit K per nine both last season and this season. There is no question that his stuff is electric, and this year he has been able to harness his 96 MPH fastball and 91 MPH splitter and cutter to great effect.

While he throws incredibly hard, it is actually Bradley’s offspeed run value that grades out the best, placing him in the 97th percentile in baseball. His fastball run value, though, is still in the top 15% of baseball, an impressive combination for the young pitcher. Bradley’s expected batting average, strikeout percentage, and fastball velocity are all in the top 20% of the game.

When looking to see why Bradley’s numbers have improved so dramatically year over year, there are a few things that come to mind. First, he is greatly improved against right-handed hitters. Last season, righties hit .282 against Bradley, with a .343 OPB and a .603 SLG. He gave up 31 extra base hits to righties in 2023, along with 20 free passes (19 walks and a hit by pitch). These numbers were simply unsustainable, and quite frankly surprising given that Bradley himself is right-handed.

This season, though, has been an entirely different story. He has held right-handed hitters to a measly .185 average, .256 OBP, and .338 SLG. He’s essentially halved the damage done from the right side of the plate year-to-year, and went from well below league average to well above it. He has only allowed 9 extra base hits to righties, and his 46 strikeouts against right handed hitters is just eight off his mark from last year.

Altering His Pitch Mix

One change that may have led to this improvement is Bradley’s alteration in his pitch mix. Last season, he threw his cutter almost 30% of the time, and hitters hit .312 off of it. His split finger fastball, on the other hand, had a .190 batting average against, but he only threw it around 12% of the time.

This season, Bradley has greatly increased his splitter usage, which is now his second-most featured pitch behind his fastball. Throwing both the splitter and the cutter both between 20% and 30% of the time has increased both pitches effectiveness, with opponents hitting just .161 and .183 against them, respectively. 

Additionally, his splitter has increased horizontal break from last year, getting Bradley an extra 1.6 inches of movement. His cutter, too, has increased its break by nearly a full inch. When hitters have to worry about a 96+ MPH fastball, these seemingly insignificant increases in run can, and have, had massive impacts on Bradley’s effectiveness.

With this improvement in pitch mix, coupled with his unquestionably electric stuff, it is no wonder that Bradley has burst onto the scene as a true ace for Tampa Bay. And, at just 23 years old, Bradley figures to be a key piece of the rotation for a long time to come. He is a true arm talent that rotations can be built around, and he is yet to enter the prime of his career. If he is able to continue to harness his velocity and movement and improve his command, Bradley will be a monster on the mound for years to come.