What Do the Cardinals Need to Add to Make a Run?
The Cardinals did enough in the offseason to put themselves back in the NL postseason picture, now they need to add the final pieces to their roster if they want to make some noise down the stretch.
The St. Louis Cardinals are within striking distance of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central and among the glut of teams competing for a wild card spot in the senior circuit.
But it’s certainly clear that they have some work to do ahead of Tuesday’s trade deadline if they want to compete down the stretch.
Only reinforcing that notion has been the early activity around them in the standings, with the Brewers adding pitching, the New York Mets reinforcing multiple parts of their roster and the Arizona Diamondbacks trading for A.J. Puk.
While the Cardinals are clearly improved from last season, when they won 71 games and finished last in the Central, their roster — as currently constructed — doesn’t have what it takes to make a run, even if they do sneak into the postseason.
St. Louis currently ranks 16th in baseball with a 99 wRC+, 18th in ERA with a 4.04 mark and 11th in DRS with 19.
With a roster built of primarily veterans heading towards the later stages of their careers, this could be the year that the Cardinals may need to push all their chips in to capitalize on this window before handing the keys over to the likes of Jordan Walker, Tink Hence, and Victor Scott II.
So, if St. Louis does intend to continue down the path of contention, aiming to put itself in the best position possible come October, here are some of the areas that will need to be addressed before 6 p.m. ET on July 30.
Starting Pitching
After signing Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn in the offseason, it seemed obvious that the Cardinals would likely be in a position where they needed to add another impact arm ahead of the deadline — if they ended up close to a playoff spot.
Currently running out a fivesome of Gray, Gibson, Lynn, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante, St. Louis ranks 23rd in starter ERA (4.44). While FIP (4.08) and SIERA (4.06) suggest the group should have gotten slightly better results this far, it’s still far from a playoff rotation.
Gray has looked every part of the ace the Cardinals acquired, striking out 30.6% of the hitters he’s face, while walking just 6.0% and Gibson has done a solid job of eating innings, but beyond those two, St. Louis could use another starter or two that they would feel confident giving the ball to in the postseason.
Potential trade options: Yusei Kikuchi, Jack Flaherty, Erick Fedde, Jameson Taillon, Frankie Montas
It seems unlikely that the Cardinals would shop at the top of the market — in the Garrett Crochet, Tarik Skubal category — unless they are convinced Jordan Walker can’t become a star. So adding from the tier of rentals or No. 2 or 3 starters on short-term deals might be the best way to go.
If St. Louis could add two arms from the group above, it would set them up nicely for the remainder of the regular season.
Already connected to Fedde by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Chicago White Sox righty could offer one of the more natural fits in the Cardinals’ rotation. The 31-year-old has a 2.98 ERA over 117.2 innings, and while his strikeout numbers aren’t elite, he’s limiting walks and home runs and has solid rates that would function well in front of St. Louis’ defense.
As far as a rental goes, Flaherty is the best one on the market, but how would both sides feel about a reunion? It seems like an unlikely fit, so perhaps Kikuchi would be the better option.
The Cardinals could also prioritize a lefty starter at the deadline, as their pitching staff ranks 24th in wOBA against left-handed hitters.
Kikuchi has kept great numbers against opposing lefties, keeping hitters to a .238/.295/.388 slash line in same-handed matchups.
A Skubal or Crochet-type would obviously be an excellent addition in St. Louis, but without the top-tier farm system of some teams that could aim to land the two southpaws, the Cardinals will need to add from the secondary group of starters available.
Right-handed Hitting
Despite running out the likes of right-handed hitters Willson Contreras, Nolan Arenado, and Paul Goldschmidt, the Cardinals have been among MLB’s worst teams in hitting against southpaws.
St. Louis owns an 81 wRC+ against lefties and has just a 27.3% hard-hit rate in those matchups.
The Cardinals have fared well against righties, ranking in the top 10 of wRC+ across baseball, so adding a lefty masher at the deadline is a must.
With Contreras, Masyn Winn, and Alec Burleson the only St. Louis hitters holding a wRC+ north of 110, any offensive addition would likely provide a boost, but with not a single Cardinals outfielder posting above-average numbers against lefties, there needs to be some sort of addition to bolster that group.
Potential trade options: Tommy Pham, Jonathan India, Justin Turner, Taylor Ward, Kevin Pillar, Luis Rengifo, Lane Thomas, Isaac Paredes, Jose Siri
Adding a righty who can serve as the Cardinals’ designated hitter against lefties and one who can platoon with Nolan Gorman at second base may also be needed if St. Louis wants to give itself legitimate options off the bench.
PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | HR | Hard-hit% | BB% | K% | |
Tommy Pham | 26 | .255 | .377 | .471 | 141 | 2 | 45.9 | 14.8 | 23.0 |
Taylor Ward | 76 | .333 | .382 | .522 | 152 | 3 | 50.0 | 7.9 | 21.1 |
Kevin Pillar | 75 | .371 | .413 | .629 | 191 | 3 | 32.8 | 4.0 | 16.0 |
Lane Thomas | 99 | .329 | .414 | .518 | 163 | 3 | 32.9 | 10.1 | 13.1 |
Jose Siri | 92 | .222 | .283 | .469 | 109 | 5 | 50.0 | 8.7 | 32.6 |
As far as outfielders go, Pham, Ward, Pillar, and Thomas all would be significant upgrades who can provide reasonable defense in the corners, but with Lars Nootbaar, Brendan Donovan, and Burleson handling the bulk of the duties in those spots, could St. Louis look at a center fielder as its main priority?
There aren’t many righties who perform well against lefties seemingly available on the market, but if Siri could be had from the Tampa Bay Rays, he could be a solid addition for the Cardinals.
Pillar and Pham have both spent time in center this season, but St. Louis might prefer Nootbaar to slide over if it was to acquire either of the two.
Looking at other positional fits, Turner, who has a 124 wRC+ against lefties, could be a nice addition as a designated hitter type or potential bat off the bench. India and Rengifo seem like perfect complements to Gorman and would have the ability to slide around the infield if needed, but the Cardinals would need to pay hefty for either since both have multiple years of control remaining.
St. Louis’ struggles against lefties, both pitching and hitting, need to be addressed at the deadline. Ideally, it would add two players on both sides of the equation to give them the flexibility they currently don’t have for the rest of the season.