Who is the Real Julio Rodríguez?

Who is the real Julio Rodríguez?

Most baseball fans would probably say he’s one of the most uber-talented stars in today’s MLB. And it’s true — Rodríguez is truly one of the more gifted athletes the game has to offer. He can put on a show on any given night.

It doesn’t feel hyperbolic to say that when he burst onto the scene as a rookie in 2022 with his supreme baserunning and fielding skills combined with an ability to hit and hit for power at a high level, he truly had the makings of being the next face of Major League Baseball.

But what has transpired since his 30/30 season as a 22-year-old back in 2023 really begs the question: Who is the real Julio Rodríguez?

All stats were taken prior to play on June 24.

A Superstar in the Making

For those who may not remember just how incredible Rodríguez was to start his MLB career, allow me to provide a quick refresher.

Rodríguez made his major-league debut on April 8, 2022, as a 21-year-old with the Seattle Mariners. In 132 games that season, Rodríguez hit 28 homers and 25 doubles while stealing 25 bases en route to an AL Rookie of the Year award, a Silver Slugger award, and a top-seven finish in AL MVP voting.

He finished 17th in MLB among position players with an fWAR of 5.8, a mark that was the fourth best among outfielders only behind Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, and Mookie Betts. His 148 wRC+ ranked eighth in all of baseball.

His performance was so impressive that the Mariners rewarded him with a 12-year mega deal in August of his rookie season, showing how much faith they had in their budding superstar.

He put together quite an encore in his sophomore season as a 22-year-old,racking up the 10th-most extra-base hits in the league with 71. Hitting 32 homers and stealing 37 bases while surpassing 100 RBI, Rodríguez entrenched himself as a top player in the game with another 5.8-win season.

He once again earned another All-Star bid, Silver Slugger award, and finished fourth in AL MVP voting this time around.

A perpetual All-Star, MVP candidate, and 30/30 threat, that’s the player fans expected to see moving forward. But his production these past two seasons have been a far cry from those benchmarks.

A Fall From Grace, or Just the New Normal?

Don’t get it mistaken, Rodríguez has not been a bad baseball player. Far from it, actually. He’s been quite solid by most player’s standards since his 2023 breakout.

The problem, though, is that Rodríguez isn’t supposed to be like most players. He is supposed to be the gold standard in center field with the potential to be the next face of the league. But he simply hasn’t been that level of player.

Take a look at the 2025 fWAR leaderboard, and he’s tied for 20th among position players in Major League Baseball at 2.6, a mark that is in the top 10 among all MLB outfielders. That’s not too shabby by any means.

But while he may be accumulating WAR, it’s how he is leaving his mark on the game that has completely shifted over the past couple of seasons.

A Power Outage

From 2022-2023, Rodríguez launched 60 homers, which was tied for 16th in MLB. That was the same number that Rafael Devers had, and it was more than players like Ronald Acuña Jr., Max Muncy, Eugenio Suárez, José Ramírez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Kyle Tucker had over that stretch.

That’s just to paint a picture of the company he was in when it came to the long ball.

His slugging percentage of .495 over those two seasons was 18th in MLB and higher than sluggers such as Marcell Ozuna, Kyle Schwarber, and even Juan Soto. His ISO of .216 was in the top quarter of baseball as well.

Oh, and he managed to steal the fourth-most bases in baseball over that stretch with 62 on top of that power output.

Now compare those numbers to what he’s done lately.

Dating back to the start of the 2024 season, Rodríguez has a total of 31 home runs. That’s tied for 52nd in MLB over that stretch.

Moreover, his slugging percentage of .410 ranks 80th in MLB and is the exact same as Andrew McCutchen’s mark over that stretch. Keep in mind, McCutchen is doing it in his age 37-38 seasons while Rodríguez is doing it in his age 23-24 seasons. His ISO of .144 is 93rd in baseball as well.

A drop-off in power of that size is borderline unfathomable for a player as young and as talented as Rodríguez. But his quality of contact trends back up the power sap.

His hard-hit rate is down nearly five percent from a season ago. He is sporting a barrel rate that is below the 50th percentile for the first time in his career at 7.7%, a far cry from where the number was earlier in his career when he was seemingly barreling everything.

He’s also putting the ball on the ground at the highest rate of his career this season at 49.6%, which is a five-percent increase from 2024. Relatedly, his line-drive rate dropped to a career-low 18.7% this season, one of the lowest marks in MLB.

For reference, Rodríguez never had a line-drive rate below 22.3% in each of his first three seasons.

Combine those trends, and it’s not surprising to see that he’s struggling to hit for extra bases.

Despite the Improved Strikeout Rate, the Results Haven’t Followed Suit

Interestingly enough, Rodríguez is striking out at by far the lowest rate of his career at 20.1%. That is 5.3% better than in 2024 and passes his previous career low of 24.5%. Generally speaking, a drop of that nature tends to yield better results, but that simply hasn’t been the case.

Even though he may be putting the ball in play more often, it isn’t translating to more hits, as his batting average has still dropped 19 points from 2024. That’s really where the step back in quality of contact is shining through this season.

Despite the sharp decline in quality of contact this season, Rodríguez’s xwOBA has remained in line with where that number has been throughout his entire career. That’s hard to believe given that he is currently producing career-low wRC+ and OPS marks.

However, his wOBA marks are largely being buoyed by his substantial drop in strikeout rate this season. When isolating the damage he’s done on batted balls, the numbers are much more worrisome.

When looking at Rodríguez’s wOBACON, or weighted on-base average on contact, his mark this season dropped 36 points from a season ago, placing him 100th in MLB. That mark is over 100 points lower than where it was in his rookie season and is nearly 70 points lower than in 2023.

wOBACON removes strikeouts, walks, and hit-by-pitches from the equation and accounts only for the performance on a player’s batted balls, whereas wOBA takes into consideration the entirety of a player’s game, including walks and strikeouts.

It’s a very similar trend with his xwOBACON, going from 21st in baseball a season ago to 79th this season.

Now, Rodríguez deserves credit for cutting his strikeout rate, especially to that degree. However, he hasn’t managed to do any more damage because of it. For a player with his bat speed and his raw power, it’s really surprising to see his results taper off despite putting the ball in play at a higher rate.

Has Defense Become Rodríguez’s Strong Suit?

While the focus has largely been placed on Rodríguez’s offensive game to this point, it must be addressed how much better he has been defensively this season when compared to the rest of his career.

Rodríguez has always been a solid defender throughout his MLB career. Given his speed and athleticism, he’s always graded out well in outs above average (OAA) due to his range. But he’s taken his defense to a new level this season.

Rodríguez has already notched 14 defensive runs saved (DRS) in 2025, which is the second most in all of MLB, regardless of position. Just two seasons ago, he ended the year with -5 DRS. That shows just how impressive that number is, and we’re not even at the halfway point in the season.

Likewise, despite playing in a fraction of the games compared to previous seasons, Rodríguez already has +9 OAA. That’s the eighth-most in MLB, putting him in the 98th percentile in that category, and he’s already surpassed his mark from a season ago.

Were you as surprised as I was when you read that Rodríguez was top 20 in fWAR this season, despite his dip in offensive production? Well, given how stellar he has been in center field, it’s easy to see why that number is as high as it is.

When Rodríguez first broke onto the scene, his bat was his calling card, and whatever production he provided in the field was a bonus to his value. But what’s transpired over the past season and a half is flipping that narrative.

When looking at Baseball Savant’s definition of Fielding Run Value, Rodríguez’s mark has never been higher than this season. Conversely, his Batting Run Value has never been lower. That was a trend that started last season, and it’s been even more drastic of a gap in 2025.

Is It Time To Alter Expectations?

Recently, Just Baseball staffers were discussing a fun topic: Who is the best MLB player under the age of 25?

If that question were posed just two years ago, Rodríguez probably headlined the discussion. Perhaps it wasn’t a discussion at all, and Rodríguez was the clear-cut No. 1 choice.

What if I told you that Rodríguez is still qualified to be in that conversation?

He’ll be 24 for the entirety of the 2025 season. In fact, he’s not that much older than some of the names on Just Baseball’s Top 100 Prospects list. Crazy, right? But this time around when faced with that question, it’s debatable whether or not he even cracks the top five in the conversation.

Not only does that highlight just how fast things can change in this what-have-you-done-for-me-lately league, but it puts into perspective how early expectations can truly change the perception of a player.

Rodríguez is top 10 among outfielders in fWAR this season and 22nd in all of baseball with 6.5 fWAR since the beginning of 2024, and that’s even with a 114 wRC+ over that stretch. Yet, it’s felt like a drastic disappointment considering what he accomplished early on in his career.

Perhaps Rodríguez is chasing that level of production, and those expectations are bleeding into his performance at the plate. Or maybe the player Rodríguez has been since 2023 is the new norm. That’s still a very good player in this league, it’s just not the league-defining superstar many were expecting to see.

It’s yet to be seen if fans will ever see that version of Rodríguez again, and his production throughout the rest of the 2025 season could very well dictate how fans perceive him as a player moving forward.

So, who is the real Julio Rodríguez? Fans just might get the answer in the coming months.