It’s Jake Burger Season for the Marlins

I don’t blame you if you stopped paying much attention to the Miami Marlins well before the All-Star break.

The Fish got off to a putrid start in 2024, losing their first nine in a row. By the end of April, they were 7-24, the worst record in the National League.

Then, after a surprisingly competitive showing over the final three weeks of May (11-6, +21 run differential), the Marlins fell flat on their faces in June. They went 9-17, dropping to 30-54 on the season.

By that point, they would have needed to play at a 112-win pace over the rest of the year to match their 84-78 record from 2023.

Through the first three months of the season, the Marlins ranked last in the NL in runs scored, OPS, and wRC+. Their starting rotation had the second-highest ERA and FIP in the league, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies.

The only hitter on the team with a wRC+ above league average was Jazz Chisholm Jr. (106 wRC+). Almost every starting pitcher the Marlins were counting on was sitting on the injured list.

Just about the only thing that wasn’t a complete disaster in Miami was the bullpen. Supporting an injury-depleted starting rotation, Marlins relievers ranked third in MLB in innings pitched over the first three months of the season. Even more impressive, they ranked fifth in fWAR.

However, president of baseball operations Peter Bendix hosted a bullpen fire sale at the trade deadline. He sold off All-Star closer Tanner Scott, as well as A.J. Puk, Bryan Hoeing, JT Chargois, and Huascar Brazobán. Those five pitchers had combined for a 1.83 ERA over 147.1 innings out of Miami’s bullpen before the deadline.

Marlins relievers have a 5.35 ERA in 20 games since.

All that to say, I couldn’t blame you if you wrote the Marlins off as a team worth your attention in 2024. But if you did, you might not have noticed Jake Burger’s remarkable midseason turnaround.

So, let me tell you all about it.

Jake Burger Is Red Hot

Since the calendar flipped to July, no MLB player has hit more home runs than Burger. The Miami Marlins third baseman/first baseman/DH has crushed 17 homers since July 1.

Burger also ranks second among qualified NL batters in isolated power (.365) in that time, trailing only Giants phenom Tyler Fitzgerald. He is third in slugging percentage (.660), behind Fitzgerald and NL MVP contender Ketel Marte. He ranks fourth in wRC+ (178) behind Fitzgerald, Marte, and NL Triple Crown candidate Marcell Ozuna.

What’s more, if you look slightly further back into June, you’ll find that Burger is one of just two players to hit 18 or more home runs in any 40-game span this year. Any guess who the other player is?

Most Home Runs in Any 40-Game Span (2024)

In short, Burger has been one of the best hitters in baseball this summer. You just might not have noticed, considering the pitiful team he plays for and the unfortunate way his season began.

After getting off to a strong start to his Marlins tenure in 2023 (130 wRC+ over 53 games), Burger slumped badly over the first three months of 2024.

In 62 games from March to June, Burger hit .217 with a .601 OPS and 64 wRC+. He wasn’t the worst player on the team (that would have been Tim Anderson, who was DFA’d at the beginning of July), but his poor performance relative to expectations was a big reason why the Marlins were so disappointing.

Burger suffered an intercostal muscle strain in mid-April, and it’s possible that affected his production when he returned from the IL in early May. Then again, it’s not as if Burger was hitting particularly well before the injury either (90 wRC+ in 64 PA).

Thus, his full-season numbers obscure his recent run of success. In 103 games, Burger has 24 home runs and a respectable .770 OPS. His 111 wRC+ is only impressive once you realize it has risen 47 points in less than two months.

Burger the (Quarter) Pounder 

Whenever a player gets hot over a relatively small sample of games, it’s always important to consider how sustainable his success really is.

In this case, it would be unreasonable to expect Burger to keep homering at a Judge-like pace. However, no one lucks into 18 homers in a 40-game span – especially playing their home games at loanDepot Park.

Indeed, Burger has been tearing the cover off the ball as of late. Since July 1, 55.6% of his batted balls have been classified as “hard-hit” according to Statcast. Only two NL batters, Austin Riley and James Wood, have a higher hard-hit rate in that time.

Meanwhile, Burger’s .406 expected wOBA ranks fifth, behind only Joc Pederson, Ketel Marte, Francisco Lindor, and Shohei Ohtani.

It’s really a simple recipe for success. Burger is hitting more balls in the air, and he’s hitting them significantly harder. He’s also pulling more fly balls than he ever has previously in his career.

Interestingly, Burger is actually swinging at fewer pitches in the strike zone and making contact at a lower rate. As a result, his strikeout rate is up from 25.5% to 29.4%.

However, his quality of contact is so much better that it more than makes up for all the extra strikes.

Jake Burger Is a Bright Spot in Miami

For the most part, things have continued to tumble downhill in Miami. The Marlins went 10-14 in July, and they are 6-12 so far in August. Their 16-26 (.381) record since July 1 is the worst in the National League.

However, this team is not completely devoid of bright spots. Xavier Edwards is a dynamic young hitter and a true threat on the basepaths. Jonah Bride has done nothing but hit for the past seven weeks. Rookie hurler Valente Bellozo has pitched surprisingly well since joining the rotation out of necessity.

Above all, Jake Burger has been one of the most dangerous hitters in the league this summer – even if almost nobody has noticed.