How Much Concern Should We Have with Colt Keith’s Slow Start?

Expectations are sky high for Colt Keith. His advanced approach, feel to hit, and power carried him quickly through the minors with multiple stops on top 100 prospect list. The hype was only amplified after the Tigers shelled out out a long term deal before he even debuted.

Keith’s 2024 rookie season was a bit of a mixed bag that ultimately ended up being average. A miserable April followed by an .881 OPS in May more or less told the story of his rollercoaster season. Ups and downs with hot streaks mixed in with growing pains resulting in, well, a typically rookie season.

While Keith’s .260/.309/.380 rookie slash line was solid, it was not exactly what many had hoped for. Of course, Keith is still a developing player and far from a finished product but his lack of power is a bit surprising. After an offseason of work, the expectation was for an improved Keith to help lift this lineup and provide more than he did his rookie season.

So far, Keith is coming up short. The sample size is too small to draw true conclusions, but there are a few areas of his game that are worth monitoring.

2025 Slow Start

Being a slow starter is not all that unusual and maybe Keith falls into that category. But, we will need years of a sample to size before writing off his Aprils. For now, we can only react to the information we have and go from there.

Through Keith’s first 12 games and 47 plate appearances he is slashing .171/.383/.229 with a 25% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate. The walk rate is great (more on that later), but the power is still lacking. With only two extra base hits, and an average exit velocity of 82.9 mph, Keith is not making the level of impact he needs to make in order to be a threat in the lineup.

Personally, I think Keith’s biggest hurtle right now might be mental. We are not seeing many “A swings” from him and he is not attacking pitches he should do damage with. One indicator is his bat speed.

This graphic, courtesy of our friends at Baseball Savant, shows Keith’s bat speed for each area of the zone. In order to generate power you need higher exit velocities which correlate with higher bat speeds combined with an optimal launch angle. To make this simple, the darker the blue the worse the bat speed is compared to other major leaguers.

Now, let’s take a look at all of the pitches Keith has seen this year and where the pitches land relative to the strike zone and how often he is swinging at strikes.

Keith has seen a lot of pitches outside of the zone which explains his high walk rate. However, he’s not swinging often enough on pitches in the zone. Now, this could be a case of working counts and taking 3-0 strikes, but there is also some truth in Keith being passive.

This is another indicator that Keith is not very confident to start the season.

Slow swings and taking so many hittable pitches tells me that he is not attacking. Perhaps he is thinking too much and not letting his instincts take over and trusting his ability. A confident hitter sees the ball well out of the pitchers hand and reacts quickly to put his best swing on pitches that land in his hot spots. I’m not seeing that from Keith, so far.

Keith confirmed this saying his confidence was at an all time low. His overthinking has really shown in the field where he’s back to playing second base after Gleyber Torres has been out with injury. In Seattle, Keith (with two outs), fielded a groundball with a runner on first and hesitated, pumped to second, and delivered a late throw to first resulting in all runners being safe.

That was not the only time Keith has looked overwhelmed in the field. A number of routine plays have been bobbled or throws have been off-line making his struggles pile up. Hopefully a soon to be back Torres can push Keith to first, or DH, and take some pressure off his plate.

Step one is finding ways to make the game easy for Keith again. I know this level will never truly be easy, but make it as easy as possible. Think less, react more. Allowing Keith to DH can help him focus on what his greatest value can be – hitting the baseball. Luckily, there’s a lot of season left an reason to believe he can turn it around.

Why Keith Can Right These Wrongs

The reason we are disappointed in Keith is because we know a much better player is in there somewhere. Expectations are not based off some fairy tale we have told ourselves, but instead off a great minor league career and solid rookie season.

Besides a move to DH, the Tigers can also play matchups more effectively and sit Keith against lefties. With Torres and Vierling coming back soon, playing platoons becomes easier. Keith has 17 at bats against lefties so far and is hitting .059 with a .217 OPS with six strikeouts. Against righties Keith has a .925 OPS with 10 walks and six strikeouts in 18 at bats.

Playing Keith in a platoon role, at least for now, can allow him to see favorable matchups and hopefully string together a few hits and boost his confidence. I don’t think he’s completely lost and in need of a demotion, but rather in need of a few good games.

Another good sign is his walk rate. Sure, he’s seeing a lot of uncompetitive pitches, but he’s also not chasing. Keith’s 19% chase rate is up there with the best in all of baseball. Part of that is being passive, but there’s worse things to be.

Remember how I said Keith might be a slow starter? Well, in the minors in 2023 Keith’s second lowest monthly OPS was in April. He still put up an .822 OPS, which goes to show just how good he can be.

As a rookie Keith had a 23% whiff rate and 20% strikeout rate, both around average and good for a rookie. Right now his whiff and strikeout rates are higher but I think he possesses the hit tool for those to level out.

Keith might take some time before he develops into a 25 home run hitter, but he has what it takes to shoot gaps and rack up doubles. I tend to think he’ll settle into being more of a line drive hitter than pure home run power, which is perfectly fine.

Final Thoughts

I think we can all agree that A.J. Hinch is a great baseball mind. When asked about Keith’s struggles Hinch said “I don’t worry about Colt. I think Colt is a really good player. Obviously he wants t be doing everything perfectly, and right now things aren’t perfect for him.”

I agree with what Hinch said and I do not have much worry with Keith, but I do want to see more positive signs. He’s too talented of a player to not trust his abilities and just go out there and play. Right now, I think his struggles are associated with the mental side of things and that can be ironed out.

Find ways to put Keith in situations where he can succeed, maybe give him a day off against tough lefties, and keep believing in him. He’s a big part of the Tigers lineup now, and well into the future. If sheltering him a bit now is what it takes, so be it. The Tigers need the best version of Colt Keith in order to reach their goals.