Should The Dodgers Be Concerned About A Suddenly Tight NL West?

The race for National League West supremacy is on.

Contrary to preseason expectations, that means the “super team” Los Angeles Dodgers haven’t already secured their eleventh division title in the last 12 seasons.

Now, that’s not to say the Dodgers won’t wind up doing so: FanGraphs still projects a 73.1% chance of Los Angeles clinching the NL West as of August 11. But that’s not even the best mark in their own league, let alone across the entire sport.

The Milwaukee Brewers, for example, are nearly a lock to clinch a second consecutive NL Central crown, with 92.5% odds per FanGraphs. And the Philadelphia Phillies have similarly high odds of winning the NL East, sitting at 88.3%.

Therefore, these calculations leave the Dodgers as the most vulnerable of the three National League division leaders in mid-August.

Should Los Angeles be concerned about a NL West race that has become, perhaps, too close for comfort?

The Dodgers are banged up, but reinforcements are coming

Injuries can strike even the deepest and most talented rosters, and the Dodgers have had plenty to handle this season.

The latest blow came Saturday night against the Pirates when rookie right-hander River Ryan, called upon to fill a rotation spot in the wake of said injuries, suffered right forearm tightness and had to leave his start early.

Ryan’s premature exits adds to an already lengthy list of Dodgers pitchers on the shelf, including Walker Buehler, Dustin May and Yoshinobu Yamamoto.

Buehler and Yamamoto are both expected back this season (Buehler may even pitch this week in Milwaukee). Tyler Glasnow and Clayton Kershaw are walking injury risks, though both are healthy for now.

It’s a good thing the Dodgers acquired Jack Flaherty from the Detroit Tigers on trade deadline day, because their rotation is otherwise depleted. And that remains true even as some of the above names above make their return: How far can Buehler and Yamamoto be pushed after long absences, for example?

We haven’t even touched on the lineup, either, which has been without Mookie Betts for the last several months. His return appears to be imminent, along with the likes of Max Muncy and Tommy Edman, the latter of whom has yet to play in 2024.

Those three should further reinforce a lineup that has already been solid and has multiple superstars in Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani, as well as a resurgent Teoscar Hernandez.

All in all, the Dodgers have been extremely banged up this season. That has undoubtedly contributed to their slower roll in recent weeks. But for all the injuries Los Angeles has endured, the race around them has really started to heat up.

Diamondbacks and Padres have gotten hot at the right time

This is arguably the more pressing concern for the Dodgers at the moment.

No matter how many injury reinforcements Los Angeles receives over the season’s final month and a half, that won’t impact the high level of play we’ve seen from division rivals in Arizona and San Diego.

To illustrate this point, here were the NL West standings on July 15, the start of the All-Star break:

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/11/2024.

That seven game lead? It all but disappeared in less than a month. Check out the standings heading into play on August 11.

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 8/11/2024.

As you can see, the Padres have trimmed the Dodgers’ lead down to 2.5 games and the Diamondbacks have pulled to within 3.5.

San Diego Padres

I want to highlight the Padres, in particular, who have lost just four games since the All-Star break. They swept the Dodgers in San Diego at the end of July and hold a firm grip on a wild card spot, one that they don’t seem likely to relinquish at their current pace.

It’s worth noting that these two rivals meet once more at the end of September in a three-game series at Dodger Stadium between September 24 and 26. That showdown could potentially have division implications if the Padres can keep this race close until then.

Here’s one major reason to believe that they can: San Diego will be receiving their own injury reinforcements soon. Ace pitcher Joe Musgrove, for example, makes his return against the Pittsburgh Pirates on Monday.

Also on his way back is superstar outfielder Fernando Tatis Jr., as well as left-handed reliever Wandy Peralta, who was a key signing last winter.

Furthermore, it doesn’t hurt that rookie Jackson Merrill has suddenly morphed into a clutch hitter.

But the Padres aren’t the only threat facing the Dodgers right now.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Let’s not forget what the Arizona Diamondbacks accomplished against the Dodgers in last season’s playoffs: a three game Division Series sweep en route to their first National League pennant since 2001.

Based on that alone, Arizona should not be counted out of this race. But their case is even more convincing when you realize they’re only trailing Los Angeles by 3.5 games as of the start of the play on August 11.

There’s also a common thread here: The return of injured regulars.

The Diamondbacks have plenty of their own in the pipeline, the most recent being starter Merrill Kelly on Sunday against the Phillies, but also rotation mates Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez.

First baseman Christian Walker is expected back in August from an oblique strain as well, though trade deadline acquisition Josh Bell has filled in admirably. It’s unknown if catcher Gabriel Moreno will return in 2024, but if he does, that’s icing on the cake.

A Diamondbacks team that could regain full strength by the end of August is a scary proposition for the Dodgers and their attempt to hang onto the National League West. Like the Padres, Arizona faces Los Angeles once more this season in a critical four-game set at Chase Field between August 30 and September 2.

So, should the Dodgers be concerned about the NL West?

To some degree, they should be.

No one expected the NL West race to be close at the start of the season. That seemed like a reasonable enough expectation given the Dodgers’ big splashes and subsequent formation of their “super team.”

But give credit to the San Diego Padres and Arizona Diamondbacks, who have each fought through plenty of their own early season adversity to make this race legitimately intriguing down the stretch.

It remains to be seen if both clubs can sustain their current level of play, but make no mistake: San Diego and Arizona are playoff-caliber teams come October.

All three of these teams can also expect some, if not most, of their injured regulars to return at some point this season. That matters too, given that all three can still improve between now and the start of the postseason. So even though the Dodgers are playing banged up, the Padres and Diamondbacks are as well. That essentially negates the injury excuse.

The odds are still in the Dodgers’ favor to capture yet another NL West title. But maybe we should start writing that in pencil instead of ink for the time being.