Did the Cardinals Do Enough to Hang in the Wild Card Race?

The St. Louis Cardinals had a nice trade deadline.

They patched some of their holes, acquiring Erick Fedde and Tommy Pham, shipped out in-need-of-a-change-of-scenery outfielder Dylan Carlson, and added a reliever in Shawn Armstrong, who should be able to give them some innings down the stretch.

Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said his “​​shopping list was right-handed reliever, starter and a right-handed bat,” so mission accomplished there.

But was it enough to transform St. Louis from a team on the outside looking in, amid several other teams in the same situation, into a club that goes on a run and earns a berth in October?

According to FanGraphs, the Cardinals have a 10.2% chance of winning the NL Central and a 16.5% chance of reaching the postseason. It also gives them the second-most difficult remaining schedule in the National League, as St. Louis still has series remaining against the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers. 

To make matters even more difficult for St. Louis, the only teams it faces the rest of the way that it is in direct competition with for a playoff spot are the Milwaukee Brewers (x6), Pittsburgh Pirates (x4), San Francisco Giants (x3), and San Diego Padres (x4). Out of those four teams, only the Padres and Brewers are currently holding a spot, so the Cardinals don’t have a ton of opportunities to directly make up ground on any teams ahead of them.

With all that said, Pham, Fedde, and Armstrong were all solid additions that didn’t cost too much for St. Louis. So, let’s dive into what each brings to the Cardinals and what weaknesses they might help paper over.

Did the Cardinals Do Enough at the Deadline?

Erick Fedde
Acquired for: Tommy Edman, Oliver Gonzalez

While his Cardinals debut was far from what he had delivered so far this season with the Chicago White Sox, Fedde was one of the top additions made at this year’s deadline.

The 31-year-old righty has returned from a year in Korea and found the formula to being a successful major league starter after six trying seasons with the Washington Nationals.

Now firmly the No. 2 starter in the Cardinals rotation, Fedde has a 3.34 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 21.% strikeout rate and 6.5% walk rate over 162.2 innings this season. Health permitting, he will give St. Louis a chance to win every time he takes the mound over the final two months.

It was clear entering the deadline that the Cardinals needed to add one, arguably two, starting pitchers to shore up a staff that has been a glaring weakness for multiple years at this point.

With Lance Lynn hitting the injured list on July 31, St. Louis’ rotation now features Fedde, Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, Miles Mikolas, and Andre Pallante — a group that certainly looks better now than it did in July, but wouldn’t one more addition have helped instill a little more confidence in the starting five of a team going for it?

On July 30, the Cardinals’ rotation ranked 22nd in ERA, 20th in strikeout rate, 12th in walk rate, 24th in average against and 13th in innings pitched.

So, if there was a time for St. Louis to take a shot at a ceiling raiser for its rotation, it was this deadline. And, of course, you can only buy what’s available on the market, but it seems like Fedde plus another starter would have been the ideal outcome if the Cardinals do, in fact, want to be playing in October.

Regardless, Fedde, Gray, and Gibson make for a respectable enough top three, and even though the strikeout is king in October, is probably a trio that could get you through a Wild Card series if necessary.

Fedde’s success in his return to MLB has stemmed from his four-pitch mix, featuring four offerings that have returned solid results. His cutter, sinker, and sweeper all have positive four values, according to Baseball Savant, and his changeup has only allowed a .211 average against.

So with St. Louis’ solid bullpen, the Fedde addition gives them exactly what they needed, and might just have been the best move made ahead of the 2024 trade deadline.

Tommy Pham
Acquired for: Tommy Edman, Oliver Gonzalez

With the struggles that Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt have faced this season, adding an impact right-handed bat was almost a must for the Cardinals.

Heading into deadline day, St. Louis ranked 27th in baseball with an 83 wRC+ against left-handed pitching.

So securing Pham in the seven-player trade with the White Sox and Dodgers, made the deal even sweeter for the Cardinals.

And Pham rewarded them for their interest in a reunion immediately, launching a grand slam in his first plate appearance back in St. Louis.

Pham might have been the most affordable, perfect match for the Cardinals available at this deadline, based on his ability to his lefties and ability to slot in across the outfield.

This season, Pham is slashing .274/.375/.500 with three homers against southpaws and has a 45.8% hard-hit rate in those matchups. Defensively, he has spent time in right, center, and left, and while he grades out as a below-average fielder at each spot, having the option to get his bat into the lineup in three different spots could be a boon to an offense which could use an extra bat.

Pham’s addition likely moves Brendan Donovan to the infield more frequently, which would potentially give Nolan Gorman a bit of time off his feet, as his strikeout rate has reached 37.9% after a rough stretch of at-bats in July.

While Pham does offer a seamless fit into the St. Louis lineup, similarly to the Fedde conversation, another hitter the Cardinals could turn to off the bench might have been a welcome addition.

Currently, St. Louis’ bench features Brandon Crawford, Pedro Pages, Matt Carpenter, and, after Sunday’s reported recall of Victor Scott II, a defensive center fielder in the fourth spot.

Carpenter is the only option there with a wRC+ north of 100, and even then, the veteran infielder only has eight extra-base hits this season, so if the Cardinals need to pinch-hit in a big spot, they don’t have a very encouraging group to turn to.

Shawn Armstrong
Acquired for: Dylan Carlson

While it surely stings to give up a former top prospect in Carlson for a rental reliever, this deal seems like a solid move for everyone involved.

For Carlson, it gives him a fresh start with a new organization that has a reputation for getting the most out of its players.

And for Armstrong and the Cardinals, it gives the veteran right-hander the opportunity to recoup some value on a team pushing for the postseason before he hits free agency this winter.

Despite arriving in St. Louis with a 5.40 ERA, Armstrong has looked a little bit better than that number would suggest.

With the Tampa Bay Rays in 2024, Armstrong had been striking out 23.4% of the hitters he face, walking 8.9% and allowing less than a home run per inning. So, some advanced stats — FIP (3.77), xFIP (4.21), and SIERA (3.89) — have liked him more than what some traditional numbers would suggest.

Now in the Cardinals’ bullpen, it will be up to Armstrong to figure out how to keep runs from crossing the plate more effectively than he has up to this point.

While his strikeouts, walk, and home runs numbers have been decent, the quality of contact he’s allowed has been significantly different from what he did for the Rays in 2023. Armstrong ranks in the 31st percentile or worse in barrel% against, hard-hit rate, xERA, xBA, xSLG, and average exit velocity allowed. So hitters have figured out how to square up his stuff.

A move to a new league and division should help as he is tasked with getting NL Central hitters out.

Armstrong won’t be thrust into leverage situations in St. Louis, as the Cardinals’ bullpen ranks seventh in ERA and fifth in FanGraphs’ Clutch rating, but if he can figure out a way to limit some of the damage done against him, he could make a strength even stronger for his new club.

Overall, the Cardinals’ deadline additions have to be considered a win. They addressed their starting pitching hole, added a bat that can hit lefties, and made their bullpen even stronger. However, in the context of earning a spot in the 2024 postseason, it feels like St. Louis may have needed to go even bigger if it wants to pass either the Milwaukee Brewers or two of the Atlanta Braves, Arizona Diamondbacks, and Padres.