The Reds Miss Out on Kyle Schwarber, and the Bigger Picture
After missing out on Kyle Schwarber, the Reds appear to be throwing in the towel on big spending this winter. That won't sit well with fans.
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When the Cincinnati Reds were rumored to be in on Kyle Schwarber, it was a case of the stars aligning for Cincinnati. Born in Middletown, Ohio, a city of 51,000 people located 38 miles from Cincinnati, Schwarber publicly spoke fondly about the prospect of finishing his career playing for his hometown team.
Bringing in hometown talent has been a theme recently with Brent Suter and Luke Maile, both from the greater Cincinnati area. But, neither came with the resume or impact that Schawarber would have brought.
A proven leader and clubhouse darling, Schwarber’s lefty bat and plus-power fit exactly what this Reds lineup needed. Now in the twilight of his career, Schwarber’s contract demands were reasonable enough that the Reds could have made a deal happen and proven to their fans that sneaking into a Wild Card game was not the ultimate goal.
A report from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal highlighted the Reds interest in Schwarber was heavily due to the potential ticket sales the move could have produced. After reportedly offering five years and $125 million, the Phillies topped the offer matching the term, but adding $25 million more.
Now, a five-year $125 million offer is competitive. That would have nearly doubled the largest free agent contract in Reds history ($64 million) and for a moment, it gave fans a slither of hope that this winter might finally be the time Cincinnati gets serious about building a team.
That hope was quickly squandered.
The Reds Take Their Ball and Go Home?
After the Reds missed out on Kyle Schwarber reports (Rosenthal) came out that the Reds would not pursue other expensive free agents this winter. On Dec. 9, over 100 days left in the offseason and many of the best free agents still unsigned, the Reds are reportedly out of the impact market.
While this is a report and not law, what have the Reds done in their history to make us believe it is not true? They haven’t signed this level of free agent in the past. They have continued to say things you just don’t hear other GMs, or owners, saying. And, you don’t hear those things for a reason.
If the main driver in signing Schwarber was ticket sales, do they really think a different impact player wouldn’t do the same? I’ve never heard of someone attending a game because someone who happened to be born nearby is playing. Will people skip out on the ballpark if Pete Alonso was a Red simply because he was born 900 miles south? Elly De La Cruz was one of the top jersey sales and is believed in Cincinnati and he was born in an entirely different county.
Bottom line, people want to see a winner. They want to go to the games knowing they have a good chance of saying “And this one belongs to the Reds” like they heard some many times on the radio growing up in the 70s, or through stories past down from their parents.
The hardest part of this entire situation is knowing how close the Reds are to being a serious team. They continually rebuilt and traded away talent in order to build towards brighter days and those days are happening right now. At least I thought so.
After making the playoffs with a payroll under $120 million the time to spend is, or was, now. The team has enough core pieces, a playoff-caliber rotation, and a few obtainable needs heading into the winter. You have saved on payroll for the past few seasons, but when the time to make a splash came we are seeing a pencil dive into the shallow end.
What’s Next For the Reds?
I’m not sure when the next time a fit as perfect as Schwarber will come around. In my opinion, he checked all the boxes while also being old enough to avoid the massive contract while also having strong interest in joining the Reds.
We could have all forgotten about this if that same money was shifted to a different free agent, but all indications are that will not happen. The Reds have roughly $10 million to spend, not including any deduction from their current roster.
On a more positive note, the Reds do have talent that comes with years of control and a level of untapped potential. Writing the team off entirely would be irresponsible and a kneejerk reaction. However, if the $10 million budget is true, we at least know the Reds are not doing all they can share the same dream you have – a championship.
Sure, they can sign some bounce-back and under-the-radar players but what are the chances of those working out combined with multiple players taking a step forward, a rotation repeating, and a clean enough bill of health to improve on last season?
Nick Krall has said they are a draft and develop team, which is ironic considering the lack of success that path has brought them for the past 30 years. So, I doubt a big trade to get the missing bat is in play. In order for the Reds to be better than their 83-win 2025 season you need a lot to go their way. Oh, and luck. Lots and lots of luck. Prospects aren’t coming up to save any narrative this season.
If the Reds’ best offer to land the perfect fit and impact bat came up $25 million short, will they ever land the type of free agent that can change the trajectory of the team? If doubling your biggest signing ever doesn’t land the player, what will?
I don’t think the Reds will ever be major players in free agency, which is oaky. I get it. But, when the once-in-a-blue-moon scenario presents itself, you have to take advantage. And if you miss out, that money that you showed is possible, cannot suddenly disappear for the rest of the options.
Fans are not that ignorant.
Final Thoughts
At one point you likely had a GI Joe or Barbie. That lifeless toy was the focal point of your entertainment, but you don’t play with it now, do you? At some point you realize what you spend your time on changes. Interests change when the thing that had your attention doesn’t evolve or provide you the same level of joy.
At some point, if the Reds do not change their ways, fans are going to turn away and leave the Reds in the same Goodwill bin that held your once loved GI Joe collection.
One thing in life that is inevitable is change and the Reds are looking like the penny – all but extinct.
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