Brandon Lowe Is a Perfect Fit for the Pittsburgh Pirates
With the top bats slowly coming off the free-agent market, trading for Brandon Lowe should be at the top of the Pirates' priority list.
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As the 2025 offseason has slowly progressed, one of the key narratives circling the baseball world has been the Pittsburgh Pirates’ willingness to spend money.
For the Pirates and their fanbase, this is uncharted territory to say the least, as the largest free agent contract in team history was a three-year deal handed to Francisco Liriano, worth just shy of $40 million.
This flexibility is something the Pirates front office has dreamed of for years, which has created a very different atmosphere around the team. Unfortunately, despite seemingly having the room to make a big splash, we’re just two weeks from the new year and the Pirates have yet to land a sizable free agent.
To make matters worse, multiple players the Pirates have had very serious interest in have now found homes for the 2026 season, leaving the club empty-handed in the process. With the market more picked over by the day, the Pirates may have to expand their payroll through a different space: the trade market.
While numerous players could be a good fit, the Pirates have to choose quite carefully when they inevitably make a big move. This leads the team to Tampa Bay, where Rays’ second baseman, Brandon Lowe, has been available and would make the perfect fit.
Let’s dive into why Lowe is the perfect trade candidate for the Pirates and examine what a package for the left-handed slugger may look like.
A Closer Look at the Numbers
Now eight years deep into his big league career, Lowe has established himself as one of the best offensive second basemen in the sport. This narrative continued in 2025, as Lowe put together his first All-Star campaign since 2019.
In the 134 games Lowe played this season, the 30-year-old slashed .256/.307/.477 with 31 homers and a 114 wRC+, and he also racked up 1.7 fWAR in the process. This was Lowe’s first 30-homer campaign since 2021 and the fourth season he’s hit at least 20.
A significant reason for Lowe’s consistent success has been his consistent quality of contact skills, which continued into the 2025 season. Lowe has never posted a barrel rate under 10%, often surpassing that mark as well. In fact, Lowe’s barrel rate sat just shy of 13% this year, a number that was good enough to be in the 81st percentile of MLB.
It doesn’t end there, either. Lowe maintained an average exit velocity above 91 mph this year, a number he’s only surpassed twice during his whole career. He also saw his exit velocity peak at 112.6 mph this year, the second-highest number he’s recorded.
Lowe has also been known for his ability to crush fastballs, a quality he maintained during the 2025 season. He slugged over .550 against four seamers while also posting a .400 wOBA and a hard-hit rate above 59%. Considering that Lowe saw four seamers 30% of the time in 2025, he had plenty of chances to do serious damage.
Lowe’s game does come with a few weaknesses. For starters, his plate discipline is an area where he lacks. His strikeout rate crept up just shy of 27% this season, while his whiff rate sat at an abysmal 33.4%. He chased quite a bit as well, which contributed to these two numbers being so high.
Sliders were another weak point of his game, as he registered a strikeout rate just shy of 33% against the pitch, alongside other poor metrics. He’s also statistically one of the worst fielders at second base, as his -13 OAA came in at the 1st percentile.
Aside from these few weaknesses, Lowe has consistently been one of the top second basemen in baseball since he debuted in 2018. He’ll give you elite power production from the left slide of the plate, a quality that’s hard to come by when talking about second basemen.
Lowe’s bat has stayed consistent as he’s aged, something that teams will value heavily when evaluating his game. If this trend continues, he’ll be a very productive player deep into his 30s.
Why the Pirates Would Benefit From Lowe
After taking a closer look and evaluating Lowe’s strengths and weaknesses, we can determine why he’d be such a good fit for Pittsburgh. The Pirates have been closely linked to Lowe all offseason, and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t make this deal if given the opportunity.
For starters, the Pirates haven’t had a 30-homer hitter since Josh Bell in 2019, and they desperately need to add slugging to their lineup. Taking that a step further, the Pirates haven’t had a second baseman reach this threshold since Jeff King in 1996.
With Lowe proving to be a steady power threat over his career, there’s a very good chance that both of these droughts could be snapped simply by adding him to the Pirates’ roster. A potential 30-homer bat in their lineup would be game changing, as the Pirates were the only team not to reach the 140-homer mark in 2025.
The Pirates only had two hitters post a wRC+ above 100 during the 2025 season, a mark that simply makes competing in 2026 impossible without serious additions. Lowe hasn’t posted a wRC+ below 100 during his entire career, meaning he’d immediately become one of the best pieces of their lineup overnight.
Aside from his on-field play being a huge upgrade, Lowe is one of the more acquirable impact bats that could be moved this offseason. This is largely thanks to the fact that Lowe only has a year left on his contract, which would keep a return from being too unreasonable.
Lowe’s salary for the 2026 season is just $11.5 million, which is quite affordable given his offensive output. This is well within the Pirates’ budget, since early indications had the team potentially increasing payroll by $30 million or more this offseason.
Considering that the Pirates were in the Jorge Polanco sweepstakes until the very end, they have some money to hand Lowe an extension. If a deal is made, we could see Lowe sign an extension immediately after the move, similarly to how the Dodgers extended Tyler Glasnow right after acquiring him from the Rays.
The bottom line is that if this deal is made, Lowe would immediately provide a huge uptick in this lineup’s offensive production without breaking the bank, something they desperately need.
What Could a Potential Trade Package Look Like?
Given the fact that Lowe only has one more year on his contract, the return for him will likely be less than people think. Especially with the Rays tending to truly maximize the talent in their players, the Rays may be able to find a package they like a lot without seeming like too much on the surface.
The Pirates have a surplus of young talent — specifically young arms. This is something the Rays value heavily and often develop well. Taking this into consideration, a deal will likely have an emphasis on young pitching, something that could allow for both sides to win.
Zander Mueth is the starting pitcher who really jumps out to me as the best suitor for this deal. Mueth, a former second rounder back in 2023, comes with tremendous potential even though he struggled this season.
Mueth was limited to only 26 innings in 2025 between the Complex Leagues and in Low-A, where he ran into some trouble. He posted a 6.58 ERA, struggling to find the strike zone along the way. However, his individual pitches have flashed loads of potential since he was drafted.
Mueth has two plus pitches in his four-seamer and slider, with his changeup also having some room for growth. With Mueth still just 20 years old, there’s a lot of potential for the Rays’ pitching development to work with.
The Rays will likely also request another piece on top of Mueth, especially given his inconsistency in the 2025 season. This is where the Bucs could add in a lower-tier hitter to get the deal over the finish line, and third baseman Murph Gray stands out as a good fit for this mold.
Gray was selected by the Pirates in the second round of the 2025 MLB Draft out of Fresno State, and he has some very projectable tools. Most notably, Gray has pretty impressive raw power and doesn’t whiff often, but he still has some work to do on his swing at the next level. This profile is exactly something the Rays would be interested in, as he’s a raw prospect with room to grow.
Together, Mueth and Gray form a very well-rounded prospect package with plenty of raw tools and upside. Since the Rays have a strong track record of maximizing the talent in these types of players, I think these two are good risks for them to take.
For the Pirates, they’d finally make the big splash they’ve been searching for this offseason without sacrificing valuable depth from their farm system in the process. With their extensive pitching depth, Mueth will have a tough time cracking any rotation in the future. As for Gray, he also has some serious infield depth to compete with moving forward.
By dealing from their pitching depth, the Pirates can inch closer to addressing some major concerns around their offense with this one move. While no trade is guaranteed to pay off, targeting a player like Lowe reflects the type of calculated risk they should be making at this stage of the rebuild.
Written by
Jay Staph, a huge baseball fan and stat nerd, founded and ran his own baseball writing website, BSBWrites, at just 16-years-old. With focal points around prospects,…