2025 Baseball Hall of Fame Contemporary Era Election Preview

The BBWAA Baseball Hall of Fame election is six weeks away, but we don’t have to wait that long to see new players get sent to Cooperstown.

The Hall of Fame Contemporary Era Committee will meet for the first time in three years to pick the first players in the Class of 2026. Last time this group met, they elected Fred McGriff by a unanimous vote. Now, there’s a new group of eight players looking to earn baseball’s highest status.

We will find out who, if any, will be celebrated next July in Upstate New York on Sunday at 7:30 p.m. EST.

How the Vote Works?

The Contemporary Era includes players who made their best contributions to the game after 1980.

A panel of 16 voters gets together to decide who they see as worthy. The voters typically consist of former players, executives, and media.

According to MLB.com, the panel includes Hall of Famers Fergie Jenkins, Jim Kaat, Juan Marichal, Tony Pérez, Ozzie Smith, Alan Trammell and Robin Yount; MLB executives Mark Attanasio, Doug Melvin, Arte Moreno, Kim Ng, Tony Reagins and Terry Ryan; and media members/historians Steve Hirdt, Tyler Kepner and Jayson Stark.

With eight players on the ballot, these voters are allowed to select up to three.

It will likely remain unknown who each voter selects. Anyone who receives 12 votes, or 75%, earns induction into the Hall of Fame. With that said, let’s meet players who might be Hall of Famers come Sunday evening.

Barry Bonds/Roger Clemens

If you’ve ever followed the Baseball Hall of Fame voting process or have any knowledge of 1990s and 2000s baseball, these two need no introduction. You know the numbers: 7 MVPs, 7 Cy Youngs, 762 home runs, 4,672 strikeouts.

There’s no questioning that Bonds and Clemens had two of the most remarkable careers MLB has ever seen. What has been questioned to no end is the way they did it.

Bonds and Clemens were both named in the 2007 George Mitchell report, which alleges both players used performance-enhancing drugs to gain an unfair advantage.

During their 10 years on the BBWAA ballot, a minority of writers — though enough to make a difference — gatekept these players from the plaque gallery in Cooperstown. Bonds and Clemens received support from about 2/3 of the voters while on the traditional ballot. This method has not been better for them.

These two made their own appearance on an era’s committee ballot in 2022.

In that vote, their peers viewed them through the lens of their flaws. Both players received fewer than four of the 16 possible votes. It could have been three, could have been zero. As much as many fans would like to one day see their induction, it’s highly unlikely that this will be the year.

Only three voters, Trammell, Moneno, and Hirdt, also voted in the last election; Bonds and Clemens were on the ballot. Although a new electorate might be helpful for them, this year’s player pool is much older than last one.

Older players tend to be less accepting of players with steroid allegations. If they couldn’t win over the last group, which included their peers like Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas, it’s hard to see this group being any more open to them.

Electability: 10/10

Likelihood of election: 1/10

Carlos Delgado

For the second time ever, a vote will be held to decide Delgado’s Hall of Fame candidacy.

The former Blue Jays slugger made his lone appearance on a BBWAA ballot in 2015, one of the worst years he could have done so.

In that year, he debuted on the ballot alongside Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and John Smoltz, while also sharing a space with 10 other future Hall of Famers. On one of the most stacked ballots of all time, Delgado received 3.8% of the vote, failing to reach the 5% required to return.

Offensively, Delgado had the makeup of a Hall of Famer.

In fact, his .929 career OPS was just four points short of Edgar Martinez in a near identical number of plate appearances.

His 473 career home runs rank 28th-highest since integration. The only non-Hall-of-Fame players ahead of him are not yet eligible to be on the ballot or have been kept out due to PED use.

Delgado is one of 31 players to post at least eight seasons with 615+ plate appearances and an OPS+ above 130. Like the last stat, the rest of that list consists of Hall of Famers, those who have been deliberately kept out, or those who have not yet been eligible.

Unfortunately for Delgado, his peak came during the heart of the steroid era. His hitting accomplishments in the late 1990s and early 2000s were overshadowed by the likes of Bonds, Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Manny Ramirez.

Along with that, Delgado was held down by his defensive prowess, or lack thereof, at first base. According to Fangraphs, his -209.1 career defensive runs above average are the 12th lowest all time. This buried his career WAR to around 44, well below what the standard traditionally is for the Hall of Fame.

I could see the writers looking at Delgado the same way they viewed McGriff three years ago, a slugger who was clean during the steroid era that deserved more recognition for what he did during that era.

On the other hand, it will probably be tough for voters to ignore the fact that Delgado couldn’t even get a second look from the BBWAA.

Electability: 5/10

Likelihood of election: 4/10

Jeff Kent

After a 10-year stay on the BBWAA ballot with moderate support throughout, Kent debuts on an era committee ballot as a potentially attractive candidate for the voters.

During his time on the traditional ballot, the all-time home run leader at the second base position hung around 14-18% of the vote in each of his first six years on the ballot. He then started climbing the ladder in year seven before eventually finishing at 46.5% of the vote in 2023.

The 2000 NL MVP is one of 34 hitters ever with over 9,500 career plate appearances to maintain a .500 career slugging percentage.

Of the other 33, the only non-Hall-of-Fame players are either not yet eligible or have been deliberately left out. As far as counting stats go, he is one of 28 with 2,400+ hits, 350+ home runs, and 500+ doubles.

On the downside, Kent didn’t have the most impactful peak.

In his 17 big league seasons, he only surpassed a 140 OPS+ three times and a 130 OPS+ five times. There are other second basemen in the Hall of Fame who also did that, but most of them were strong defenders, which Kent was not.

Kent is an extension of the many modern second basemen that have been overlooked by both the BBWAA and era committees. Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, and Willie Randolph come to mind.

An election in Kent could result in an invitation to re-examine some of those cases. As a guy who struck around on the BBWAA ballot and had some motion, Kent has a decent chance on Sunday.

Electability: 7/10

Likelihood of election: 8/10

Dale Murphy

Murphy is one of the two veterans on these era committee ballots, having appeared on three others before this one. Murphy hung around on the BBWAA ballot for 15 years, never amassing 23.2% of the vote in the process.

He appeared on his first era committee ballots in 2018 and 2020, but failed to reach four of the 16 votes in the process. He returned in 2023, where he received six of the 16 votes. It does appear that there is a growing level of support for Murphy’s candidacy within the committee.

During an eight-year stretch from 1980-1987, Murphy was playing at a Hall of Fame level. In over 5,000 plate appearances during this span, he slashed .284/.374/.517 for a 139 wRC+.

He won two MVPs during this span and more home runs than anyone not named Mike Schmidt. His 39.7 fWAR during this span ranked ninth highest among position players. Seven of the eight players ranked above him are Hall of Famers, with Keith Hernandez as the exception.

The problem with Murphy is what he did outside of that peak.

Ideally, a player inducted into Cooperstown will have a Hall of Fame peak, and they play well enough outside of their peak to solidify their case. Murphy did not do that.

From 1976-1979 and 1988-1993, which made up 42% of his career plate appearances, he managed 4.1 bWAR in 12 seasons. Murphy dealt with knee injuries during his career, hindering his performance during these years.

He did not receive any MVP vote shares, Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers make an All-Star team in any of these years. He also averaged a 96 OPS+ during this time, marking him as a below league-average hitter for most of his career.

Fortunately for Murphy, there is a very recent precedent for this formula making its way to the Hall of Fame. Last year, Dave Parker reached the 75% threshold during an era’s committee election.

Parker posted 31.1 bWAR during his five-year peak from 1975-1979, but just 9.0 bWAR in the remaining 14 years of his career, which made up roughly 69% of his career plate appearances.

With Parker now being in, Murphy’s case may look more appealing, but he will still need to gain six more votes over his last appearances to make it.

Electability: 5/10

Likelihood of election: 4/10

Don Mattingly

Mattingly is the other of the mainstays on the contemporary era ballot. Like Murphy, he is making his fourth appearance on this ballot. Mattingly debuted on the BBWAA ballot by achieving 28.2% of the vote in 2001. He would never reach that height again in his remaining 14 years, getting as low as 8.2% before falling off the ballot.

In 2018 and 2020, he received fewer than four votes. But in 2023, he emerged as a Hall of Fame hopeful. Mattingly earned eight of the 16 votes in his last election, just four away from 75%.

Each of Mattingly’s best six seasons came between 1984-1989, which included his 1985 AL MVP.

In those years, he hit .327 for a 143 wRC+. He averaged 34 strikeouts per season in that time. His 31.7 fWAR in this span ranked tied for sixth among position players.

All players ranked above him on that list are Hall of Famers. Mattingly showed remarkable bat-to-ball skills throughout his career.

According to Fangraphs, he is one of just 15 players with at least 7,000 plate appearances with a K%+ at or below 40, meaning his career K% was 60% the league average.

Mattingly also suffered injuries that affected the back half of his career.

His peak ended at age 29, and he retired before turning 35. Outside of that six-year prime, he posted 9.4 bWAR in eight seasons.

That’s eight of his 14 career seasons where he averaged just over 1.0 bWAR per season. Unfortunately, this downfall overshadowed his peak. His 42.4 career bWAR would be the lowest of any first baseman elected to the Hall of Fame since integration.

Despite this, Mattingly’s case does have motion. As someone who defined an otherwise dark era of Yankee baseball and maintained a career .300 average, it’s easy to see how he caters to the old-school way of thinking.

Mattingly has the most votes of any returner to this ballot, giving him a visible path to induction on Sunday night. He just needs to pick up four more votes.

Electability: 4/10

Likelihood of election: 7/10

Gary Sheffeld

After falling off the BBWAA ballot in 2024, Sheffield makes his debut on an eras committee ballot. Although Sheffield fell off the BBWAA ballot, he left with a lot of momentum.

After sticking between 11-13% for his first five years, he turned a lot of heads in the back half of his time. Sheffield finished with 63.9%, around the same number that Bonds and Clemens plateaued at.

Offensively, the case for Sheffield is clear. Of course, his 509 career home runs rank 27th on the all-time list. But it wasn’t just the volume of dingers that made him a viable candidate.

He is one of 24 players with 10,000+ plate appearances and an OPS+ at 140 or higher. He is also one of just four players with 500+ home runs and 250+ stolen bases. The other three are Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, and Willie Mays — three of the best players of all time.

The reason Sheffield has been neglected all these years is because of PED allegations against him. He was named in the aforementioned Mitchell Report, which connected him to the BALCO scandal. Sheffield has denied using steroids during his career, which is enough for BBWAA voters to ignore.

Along with that, his -300.9 career defensive runs above average are the lowest of all time, according to Fangraphs.

Although Sheffield has a strong case, there’s an inclination to believe anyone connected to steroids will have a hard time pleasing this crowd. If Bonds and Clemens couldn’t swing four votes, it’s hard to imagine Sheffield, who faces the same allegations but was not as talented, will do any better.

Electability: 9/10

Likelihood of Election: 1/10

Fernando Valenzuela

Valenzuela appears on a Hall of Fame ballot for the third time, and his first in over 20 years. Previously, the former L.A. lefty first appeared on the BBWAA ballot in 2003, where he narrowly stayed on after getting 6.2% of the vote.

The next year, he dropped to 3.8%, falling off the ballot. He has never been picked up for an era’s committee election, but was selected for this one in the first committee election since his passing in 2024.

The best stretch of Valenzuela’s career at the very beginning. It wasn’t just his Cy Young award at age 20 in 1981. From Ages 20-25, he averaged a 2.97 ERA and 118 ERA+.

From 1981-1986, he was – without question – the best starting pitcher in baseball.

During that stretch, he led all pitchers in fWAR (31.9), innings pitched (1,537), and ERA among the 85 pitchers with at least 750 innings pitched.

Unfortunately, the rest of his career was marred by health issues, especially a 1998 left shoulder.

From age 26 on, Valenzuela pitched to a 92 ERA+ in his final 1,375.1 innings. His strikeout rate dipped from 20% before 1987 to 13.3% after.

Valenzuela finished his career with a 104 ERA+, which would be tied for the second-lowest for any starting pitcher in the Hall of Fame. That, combined with his less than 3,000 career innings, makes this case a tough one.

Electability: 2/10

Likelihood of Election: 2/10