5 Things That Need To Go Right for the Reds To Make the Playoffs
Currently on the outside looking in, here's what the Cincinnati Reds need to do if they want to make it to the postseason.
| | 
Before play on Friday, August 29, the Cincinnati Reds sit in third place in the NL Central with a 68-66 record and are four games back of the New York Mets for the final wild-card spot in the playoffs.
Having lost six of their last seven, the Reds need to turn it around if they want to surpass the Mets in the wild-card standings. The Mets gave the Reds their shot with an abysmal start to the month of August, but they have turned it around winning eight of their last twelve.
With just under a month left in the season, it’s go time for this club. Here are 5 things that need to go right for the Reds to make the playoffs.
1. Elly De La Cruz Goes on a Tear
The phenom shortstop is having a really good year, slashing .273/.344/.453 with 19 home runs and 31 stolen bases. I don’t think it is unfair, however, to say that the team needs more from Elly. The in-game power just has not been there, as De La Cruz has just one home run since June 24.
This is a team that, maybe by approach, just does not hit for power. Most would agree — you need power in the lineup to compete for a postseason spot. And this lineup is missing a bopper.
For a guy who can hit the ball a mile and pop exit velos over 115 mph, he just does not hit the ball hard enough consistently or hit the ball in the air enough. De La Cruz is in the 56th percentile with a hard-hit rate of 44.7%. Moreover, the league average groundball rate is 44.3%; Elly is putting the ball on the ground over 51% of the time.
The lack of impact swings is not helped by the struggling defense, where De La Cruz has posted -4 Outs Above Average. For those thinking, “He has always made lots of errors!”, in 2024 his OAA mark was +14.
A sub-.550 OPS in the month of August has really been hard to watch. In June of this year, on his way to an All-Star nod, Elly slashed .344/.427/.656 with seven long balls. To expect that over a full year would be unfair. But, we don’t have a full year left. We are down to a month. If De La Cruz can have an awesome September, similar to his June output, then maybe… just maybe he can drive the Reds to the playoffs.
2. The Bullpen Gets Hot
Heading into the trade deadline, Reds fans were hopeful to pick up a high-leverage arm to add to the ‘pen to best help themselves in their quest of a playoff berth this season. That addition never came.
Emilio Pagan and Tony Santillan have held down the back end of the bullpen for the entirety of the year and have outperformed just about everyone’s expectations. Pagan, a free agent at the end of the year, has a 2.98 ERA and is eight in all of baseball in saves with 25.
However, in the month of August, Pagan is sporting a 4.50 ERA. The Reds cannot afford for him to fade down the stretch.
Santillan has been nails the entire year, posting a 2.70 ERA. He has been even better of late, allowing just three earned runs since the All-Star break, which is good enough for a 1.69 ERA.
The problem with this bullpen overall is the consistency. As a team, the Reds have blown a lead in 33 games this season, the fifth-highest total in baseball. Now, that doesn’t mean all 33 games were blown by the bullpen, but the ‘pen does lead the league in blown 9th-inning leads with six.
With the way this offense has struggled, they absolutely cannot blow any leads the rest of the way. It’s a lot to ask for, but that is the type of performance this team will need to make it to October.
3. The Complimentary Pieces Need To Do Their Job
It is no question that the Reds’ offense as a unit has been underperformed all throughout the year, but it’s been even worse in the second half of this season. The starting rotation has been carrying this team all year long, and it is time for the offense to handle their business.
While the Reds really need a surge from Elly, he can’t do it himself with the way others are performing.
In the second half, TJ Friedl is slashing .238/.354/.287 for a measly .641 OPS with one homer. Austin Hays is putting up a .236/.324/.354 slash line with a .678 OPS and just three long balls. Those are two players who are supposed to be big-time contributors in the top half of the lineup. They need to have an OPS in the .700s at the very least.
With Tyler Stephenson in the injured list, the Reds have needed Trevino to step back up into a full-time role like he was at the beginning of the year. Sadly, the results just have not been the same.
An incredible first half from Trevino resulted in the defensive-first catcher putting up a .744 OPS. In the second half, that number has dropped down to just .405. Even when splitting time with Stephenson, Trevino absolutely needs to be better.
Lastly, Matt McLain. What a rough year it has been. August has seen McLain lose his everyday role thanks to a sub-.500 OPS. Reds fans have seen McLain be an All-Star-level player in the past, but right now that player is just nowhere to be found.
But, his success may have as much impact on winning as anyone else on the team. This season, in games the Reds have walked away with a win, McLain has a .744 OPS. In games that resulted in a loss, he’s had a .511 OPS.
If, by some miracle, McLain can find it for just a month, it could lead to that playoff berth that looks to be on the verge of slipping away. Trade deadline additions Ke’Bryan Hayes and Miguel Andujar have been great for this ball club. But, the other complimentary pieces need to pick it up.
4. Lean Upon the Three Aces Down the Stretch
The starting pitching staff for the Reds has been absolutely stellar all season long. The rotation is led by a three-headed monster of Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, and Andrew Abbott.
Abbott has been the hero of this rotation, which led to an All-Star game nod. The month of August has seen him taper off a bit, posting a 4.50 ERA thanks to a couple of outings where he allowed four and six earned runs.
In his next start, Abbott will hit a career high in innings pitched as a big leaguer. It is crucial to this ball club that he has the stamina to go the full length of the season pitching at that All-Star level.
Lodolo was on one heck of a run before a blister issue popped up once again and caused a short IL stint. Before his start where he left early because of the blister, Lodolo was on a roll of eight straight starts allowing three or fewer runs. Seven of those eight he allowed two or fewer runs.
Included in that stretch was a complete game shutout, giving him a 2.60 ERA in the second half of the season. In his first game off of the IL, Lodolo went 4.2 innings and allowed four earned runs. If he can get back into his pre-blister groove, it will be a huge boost for the club.
Greene missed the most time this year of any of these three, but he is also the most important of the bunch. The ace of the staff, Greene needs to be the guy that is available and shuts down offenses every fifth day.
Greene had been out since June before making a return on August 13, where he went six innings of no-run ball. His following two starts were fine, but the Reds need him to return to greatness.
5. Play Clean Defensive Baseball
Heading into Friday’s game, the Reds have lost five of their last six. They have also committed an error in five of those six games. This team has needed defensive help for a long time and they got it when Hayes was acquired at the trade deadline. Hayes has posted 18 Outs Above Average, a mark that is fourth in all of baseball, putting him in the conversation as best defender in the sport.
Elly is currently leading the league in errors. There are times that you want to give him a pass because he makes some ridiculous plays to make up for it. But the amount of his errors that are about as routine as they come is getting old and needs to improve.
Overall, while this team is not filled with great defenders, it does not help when they are not put in positions to succeed.
For example, Noelvi Marte made the in-season switch from third base to the outfield this year, trying to learn right field on the fly. The other night he was starting in center field with Santiago Espinal in right. That is not setting your team up for success.
For this team to be successful, the errors need to go away. They are not talented enough to be able to get away with playing sloppy baseball, whether it’s in the field, on the basepaths, or at the plate.
Final Thoughts
With less than 30 games to go, this team needs everyone at their best. Looking at this list above, it may seem like this is going to take a lot of things going right to make the playoffs. And that’s true — it is. But that’s what it’s going to take.
Show that you truly belong in October by having your star play like a superstar, your staff mowing guys down, role players doing their jobs, and playing a clean game. It is going to take a lot, but I am excited to see what these guys are made of when the pressure is on.
Stats were taken prior to play on August 29.
Written by