Profit was not achieved last night. What an ugly game to sit through as a Braves ML backer. The Braves had their chances, both early and late. We can blame Ramon Laureano for his mistakes, but at the end of the day, two runs won’t cut it. Once Luis Severino exited, they went without a hit. Ramon Laureano can at least say he got a hit in this game, which only four other Braves players can say.

Let’s get you two winners this Friday to make up for it.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 88-91 (-7.61 U)

Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays @ 7:07 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Andrew Heaney (3.60 ERA) vs. Yusei Kikuchi (4.54 ERA)

Yesterday’s loss felt like the nail in the coffin for the Blue Jays. On the flip side, the Rangers have won five in a row and are sneakily only two games back of the Astros for first place and slowly creeping up the Wild Card Standings. Just on morale, the Rangers have to be narrowed in on this series, while I find it hard to believe the Blue Jays locker room is cheery right now.

Andrew Heaney has been rock solid since May began. He’s thrown 15 straight starts of three earned runs or less. He doesn’t often go long, but he’s giving the Rangers a chance to win, which is all they should need. It’s been even better in opposing ballparks. In his last 15 road starts, he’s averaging 1.5 runs per game.

I was initially surprised to see Heaney’s numbers against this current roster. Through 48 PA, the Blue Jays hit .316 with a .410 xwOBA. Scary. But I realized these stats are from 2021 when players like Justin Turner were much better, and Heaney had a terrible year. Credit to Heaney; he did throw a six-inning shutout in Toronto in 2021, so he has experience there.

As you can see from the chart, there are better offenses against lefties. They are in the bottom five in relevant metrics this season and below average over the last 30 days. Since the All-Star break hit, the Blue Jays have 30 PA against lefties with a -9 wRC+. It’s hilariously bad, but it’s a small sample, but the larger sample shows this is a below-average offense against lefties.

Yusei Kikuchi lines up on the other side. He faced Texas last year and allowed six earned runs in a 10-0 win by the Rangers. He’s an average left-hander; his xERA is about league average. As does Heaney, but the Rangers are getting much better against southpaws.

As you can see from the chart, the Rangers have been a top-five offense against left-handed pitching over the last thirty days. Since the All-Star break ended, they’ve racked up 56 PA vs. LHP and posted a 154 wRC+. I like their chances against Kikuchi, who seems to be cruising early but has continued to fall apart lately.

The Rangers bullpen could be better, but it’s in a great rest spot. Yesterday, they used very rested arms so that they could go on back-to-backs, and the rest of the bullpen is ready to go. The Blue Jays bullpen has two relievers I like, rested Chad Green and Yimi Garcia, but the rest is up for debate. I’ll go to battle with this current Blue Jays bullpen any day of the week.

Based on the matchup, I made this game -110 on both sides. I believe in momentum, and I think the Rangers are owning that right now. I know four of the wins came against the White Sox, but if the Rangers get hot, it doesn’t really matter who the opponent is. I’m taking the road team to +100.

The Pick: Rangers ML (+110) Risk 1 Unit

Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: George Kirby (3.20 ERA) vs. Drew Thorpe (3.03 ERA)

I bet this last night when I saw the weather in Chicago. I already liked both starters in this matchup, and the Mariners had an off day, so the bullpen is in great shape. The White Sox bullpen is in a decent rest spot, and the Mariners’ offense still leaves much to be desired. Add it all up, and we should see a low-scoring game.

The wind sparked up a profitable system. When we have crosswind or wind blowing in at 5 MPH or more, the under is 207-148-21 (58.3%) for an ROI of 11.1%. That system is profitable enough long term to ride without any explanation, but I like the under without the wind involved.

I don’t think you need me to tell you how alarming both offenses are. The White Sox have the lowest wRC+ in baseball this year against righties at 72, and the Mariners rank 24th at 92.

As you can see, nothing has changed for the White Sox. In the last thirty days, they have been the worst or the second worst in relevant stats against right-handed pitching. Since the All-Star break ended, they are also last in wRC+ at 29 through 226 PA. Enough of a sample to say the White Sox are bad. We knew that.

Kirby should dominate. He’s been tough on righties, posting an OPS under .600 against them this year. The White Sox lineup is filled with them, as the only lefties he should face are Gavin Sheets (.679 OPS), Nicky Lopez (.586 OPS), Brooks Bladwin (.269 OPS), or Andrew Benintendi (.559 OPS). I’m projecting Kirby for six innings while allowing two earned runs. That puts us in a great spot.

Drew Thorpe gets another crack at the Mariners after allowing two runs in five innings in his first start. It was bumpy early for Thorpe, but he’s one of the best pitching prospects in the game. He was the main piece in the Dylan Cease trade and has an 80-grade changeup. He’s been fantastic lately, only allowing three earned runs in his last three starts over 18.1 innings to give him a 1.47 ERA. His last start came against the Royals on the road where he threw six shutout innings. He’s legit.

He faces a pitiful Mariners offense that couldn’t even hit him when he was fresh on the scene. Not only have they been in the bottom five in every metric against righties over the last 30 days, but they have also had a 65 wRC+ against righties since the All-Star break. They should put Randy Arozarena in the lineup today if he can, but Randy and the Mariners don’t like changeups.

Drew Thorpe’s most used pitch is his changeup, and it’s genuinely fantastic. The Mariners have the lowest xwOBA in the league against changeups at .260. Randy is hitting .205 against changeups with a 0 run value. I project Thorpe for the same; six innings and two runs are allowed. I wanted to back his props, but his earned run line is so juiced toward the under, and his strikeout line is a line he’s never reached before.

I see up to three runs allowed after they exit. The Mariners have everyone available, and they do have a top-ten bullpen. The White Sox bullpen is not good, but they have a few key arms rested, and it’s not as if I trust the Mariners to go crazy against them. The system says to take through the entire game, and the Mariners bullpen should put up zeros.

I project four runs from the starters and no more than three runs from the bullpens. This total is dropping since I bet it, but I would go with that if you can get a plus price on 7. So take this at 7.5 (-120) or 7 (+100).

The Pick: Mariners vs. White Sox Under 7.5 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units