Chris Paddack Aside, the Marlins’ Rotation Is In a Great Spot
With Robby Snelling set to make his MLB debut on Friday, the future is bright for the Miami Marlins' starting rotation.
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Chris Paddack‘s Miami Marlins career was short-lived.
After being taken by the Marlins in the eighth round of the 2015 MLB Draft, Paddack was traded to the San Diego Padres at the 2016 MLB Deadline in a one-for-one swap of Fernando Rodney. At the time of the trade, Paddack was considered an up-and-coming arm in the Marlins’ farm system, and it came as a surprise to some that he was the one the Marlins dealt for a rental in Rodney.
Unfortunately for Paddack, he was shortly diagnosed with a Torn UCL and underwent Tommy John surgery that August.
It was only a couple of months ago, back in February, that the Marlins handed Paddack a one-year, $4 million contract in free agency to help fill an end-of-the-rotation role. Despite still having depth in the unit after the trades of Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers, the Fish decided that Paddack was a better option over the internal arms, most notably Braxton Garrett and Robby Snelling.
Well, on May 5, the Marlins decided enough was enough.
Clayton McCullough said in a pre-game interview that the decision to move on from Paddack was strictly “performance-based.”
Considering he was 0-5, with a 7.63 ERA in his six games started, I’d say the move was warranted.
Despite Paddack’s catastrophic performance to start the year, the Marlins rotation, as a whole, has actually been quite good.
If you were to remove Paddack’s stats from the rotation, entering May 6, their 3.49 average ERA ranks third-best in the National League, and fifth overall in all of baseball. Defining Paddack as “dead weight” might be understating just how much of a negative impact he was on the team.
In the seven games in which he pitched this year, he received an average of 3.14 runs per game. Though it is slightly below league-average, there was only one start in which he allowed fewer than five runs all season.
With that experiment in the rearview mirror, it’s time to focus on how good Miami’s starting staff has been to this point.
Stats were taken prior to play on May 8.
How Good Has the Rotation Been?
It doesn’t take much searching to see just how good the top four Marlins starters have been for them through the first couple of months of the 2026 season.
Although his most recent starts have not been as great, Sandy Alcantara came out of the gates on fire.
Heading into his fourth start of the season, before allowing seven earned runs in six innings pitched to the Detroit Tigers, Sandy’s ERA sat at 0.74 in 24.1 innings pitched. In fact, it took up until his third start for a team to even score a run on him.
Coming out of the month of April, with that blowup start, his ERA sat at 3.04, striking out 31 total hitters in 47.1 innings pitched.
The strikeout numbers post-Tommy John surgery had been slow to return, but it was clear that he had been making strides to return to the Cy Young caliber pitcher we all know him to be.
Heading into May 8, in 51.2 innings, he has pitched to a 4.01 ERA and a 3.46 xERA with 36 strikeouts, a groundball rate returning to his career norms, and only four homers allowed. His 104 ERA+ would actually rank third-best of the group of four. Sandy also leads the league in batters faced, having gone up against 218 batters so far.
The No. 2 in the rotation has probably been one of the more disappointing when you consider the expectations of the young 23-year-old heading into the season.
Eury Perez has not had the start to the season that any of us would have liked.
His latest start on May 6 included, in 41.1 innings pitched, he has a 5.01 ERA, striking out a little over a batter per inning, but he has allowed seven home runs already this year. He also has a walk rate over 4.50 per nine innings.
Eury, like Sandy, is still seemingly searching for the high-end stuff that deemed him one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball just a short time ago. These struggles coming despite an uptick in velocity across the board.
The issue comes right here.:
Any pitcher is going to have trouble getting hitters out when they are throwing meatballs right down the plate. So, if Eury is going to turn it around this season, following the five-earned, five-walk performance against the Orioles, command is going to be a big key in doing so.
Then, despite the questions in spring about his prospects for the starting rotation, Max Meyer has done nothing but prove that he is there to stay.
Coming off the injury-shortened 2025 season, Meyer entered Spring Training in a competition for a spot in the rotation, despite a strong showing prior. After winning the No. 3 spot out of camp, the former first-round pick has begun to consistently show the talent that had him drafted third overall in the 2020 MLB Draft.
In his 42 innings pitched this season, he has a staff-best 2.79 ERA, 2.90 FIP, 45 strikeouts, and an ERA+ at 149, which is also the best in the rotation. He dazzled in a recent start against the Phillies on May 2, where he struck out seven batters in seven innings, allowing just two base runners to reach.
We continue to go down the line. Now, coming off what he did last season, it is hard to say that his start to the season has been a surprise, but what Janson Junk has done to follow up his 2025 season has been darn impressive.
Junk came into 2026 coming off a career 2025 season. In his first season with the Marlins, after having been a late, minor league signing heading into camp, Janson pitched 110 innings in 21 games (16 starts) for the Marlins. The second-closest innings total he pitched in a major league season before that was 16 innings back in his debut 2021 season with the Angels.
So far, he has pitched to a 2.82 ERA across 38.1 innings in his seven starts this year. Where he seems to generate his success from is his walk rate, which currently ranks in the 92nd percentile in all of baseball, per Baseball Savant.
Considering the fact that Marlins fans were almost casting him aside as an option in the rotation coming into the season, Junk has made sure to silence the doubters and be one of the better pitchers in the organization so far.
Reinforcements Are Coming
In my opinion, the signing of Paddack should have never happened in the first place.
Sure, there were some questions being asked as to whether, after the departure of Cabrera and Weathers, they would have enough rotational depth to even start the season.
While hindsight is 20/20, I think it is fair to say that his 55 ERA+ would have been bested by just about any other internal option in the organization.
The first one that comes to mind is fresh off the recent news that the Marlins are going to be calling up top pitching prospect, Robby Snelling, to take the rotation spot left vacant by the dismissal of Paddack.
For Marlins fans, this one has been a long time coming.
It’s about time, too, because Snelling had been doing nothing but dominating the competition at the Triple-A level. Coming off a week in which he was named International League Pitcher of the Week, Snelling will look to make his MLB debut on Friday against the Nationals.
In his 29 innings down in Jacksonville, Snelling had pitched to a 1.86, second-best ERA in the International League, with 44 strikeouts, equating to a 40% punchout rate, and an opponents batting average of .116.
He is also coming off his second-best start of the season, in which he only allowed one baserunner via a walk and struck out nine against Triple-A Durham.
To say the left-hander is deserving of this promotion doesn’t do it justice. There was a case for him to have made the rotation out of Spring Training, but per service time manipulation tactics, holding him down until May guaranteed the Marlins of an extra year of control on Robby.
Nonetheless, I am sure I can speak for all Marlins fans when I say that I am excited to see what he can provide this team going forward.
Let’s not forget about one pitcher who we are still waiting to see make his 2026 debut.
Heck, when Braxton Garrett makes his debut in 2026, it’ll be the first time he appears in a major league game since 2024 — s season in which he only pitched 37 innings before going down with the elbow injury that has caused him to miss all of this time.
Coming out of the 2023 season, prior to the injury-riddled seasons to follow, Garrett had pitched in a career-high 159.2 innings.
After a long road back to the mound, Garrett entered camp vying for a spot in the five-man rotation to start the year. After falling short, Garrett started the year off in Triple-A Jacksonville, where it seems as if he has been pitching with a purpose.
The purpose of getting back to Miami pronto.
In 31.1 innings, Garrett has pitched to a 2.30 ERA, which is fourth in the International League, with 32 strikeouts, and an outing in which he no-hit the opposition, but still ended the game with a loss.
It is no longer a matter of if, but when Garrett will be called upon to pitch for the big-league club again.
Final Thoughts
In the grand scheme of things, the signing of Paddack was unnecessary. To be honest, there was nothing he showed in the past that likely warranted him being chosen for the fifth spot over the other options that the Marlins had internally.
Had Paddack been signed as a minor league free agent, the same as Junk was last season, if he pitched the way he did this season, then it may be a little easier pill to swallow. Since they decided he was worth a $4 million flier when they had arms like Snelling and Garrett ready to go, this goes down as one of the few blunders that Peter Bendix has made recently.
Either way, I cannot wait to see what this rotation continues to do as they progress further into the season.
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Written by
Cristian has been at Just Baseball since 2021, when he first started writing about prospects. He spent eight years working in Major League Baseball with the…