Top Notes From the Cincinnati Reds’ ZiPS Projections for 2026

The 2025 season was a rollercoaster for Cincinnati Reds fans. At times, this team looked like a surefire seller, and other times, it had the pitching to make a playoff run. The ups and downs of the season eventually led to a playoff berth and a series in which the Reds fell to the L.A. Dodgers.

After a memorable season in Cincinnati, fans have now shifted their focus toward the 2026 team that’s trying to improve on the edges. The bullpen was a primary concern, the outfield a significant need, and infield depth would be welcomed.

Cincinnati started the offseason by bringing back closer Emilio Pagán before adding lefty Caleb Ferguson, righty Pierce Johnson, and lefty Brock Burke to the bullpen as well. Although those moves do not make for the splashiest of headlines, all come with a solid track record and give the Reds proven veterans out of the bullpen.

Offensively, well, things have been quiet. The Reds’ most notable move was actually trading away Gavin Lux, who they acquired just last winter for Mike Sirota and a comp pick. The outfield was addressed by trading for Dane Myers, who will platoon against lefties, and signing JJ Bleday, who will try to prove 2024 wasn’t a fluke.

Overall, I don’t think the Reds have made any bad moves, but they also haven’t made any impactful moves, either. It’s a roster that resembles last season’s not only in name, but in projection.

Oh yes, projections. Everyone’s second favorite offseason topic, behind transactions. Today, I want to focus on the ZiPS projection system, a system created by Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs that has been refined over the past two decades.

ZiPS utilizes information such as a player’s past performance and general aging trends to help paint a picture of the type of season that player might have. For a more detailed outline, I suggest reading this article.

Cincinnati Reds ZiPS: Position Players

Of the nine projected starters in the Reds lineup, only two – Ke’Bryan Hayes and Tyler Stephenson – have over three years of service time. This is a young team that has gone through some growing pains the past two or so seasons and now, in theory, should be ready to take a step forward.

The Reds ZiPS projections are not too kind. Of the projected starters, Elly De La Cruz (111 OPS+), Sal Stewart (100), and Bleday (106) are the only players with a projected OPS+ over 100. Yikes. I should note that the system does struggle to predict younger players due to sample size issues, but even considering that, the numbers are concerning.

Here are my top takeaways

• Matt McLain & Sal Stewart Are Tied for Second in fWAR – As far as offensive projections go, I think these two names being near the top is exactly what the Reds need in order to take a step forward, offensively.
  
  Matt McLain‘s struggles were immense in 2025, and the team has not found a true backup plan, unless the Lux trade paints Stewart as the backup plan. Regardless, McLain is going to get another chance to prove, another year removed from surgery, that he can be the player the Reds need him to be. A .237/.319/.392, 17 home run, 18 stolen base projection is far from exciting, but it would be better than his 2025.
  
  Stewart is the new unknown, and we all love the unknown. Rightfully so. Stewart made a strong impression in only 18 games as a 21-year-old rookie and has the tools to be a ceiling raiser for this team. Projected for 19 home runs and a 100 OPS+, I think Stewart will surpass those numbers.
  

• Elly De La Cruz Has a Similar Season to ’25 – I want to be clear, nothing that I am about to say is a complaint. Elly literally just turned 24 years old and has the tools to turn any season into a memorable one. However, his .261/.334/.453, 23 home run, 40 stolen base projection is not the superstar leap we all are waiting for.
  
  Sure, the 4.5 fWAR projection is nearly two wins higher than the next position player on the list, but the expectations are higher for a reason. I think we all agree that De La Cruz’s 2025 was a step back from 2024, even if the strikeouts are trending in the right direction.
  
  This team is going to go as far as Elly will take them. They need him to make up for the power that is lacking in the rest of the lineup and put up a career-best season to help raise the ceiling. ZiPS, unfortunately, does not see that level of leap for 2026.
  

• Power Is a Problem – Of the players on the projected active roster, according to RosterResource, the Reds have two (De La Cruz and Bleday) projected to hit 20 or more home runs. Stewart and Spencer Steer come in at 19 and Christian Encarnacion-Strand at 18.
  
  I should note that outfielder Rece Hinds is projected to hit 20 home runs but also receive 445 at-bats, which I think is next to impossible. Will Benson is projected for 16 home runs, keeping a what if scenario alive, but that would be setting a new career high for him.
  
  The team has made it clear that contact over power is their approach, so I’m not entirely surprised. However, for a team focused on putting the ball in play, only having Elly projected for a batting average over .260 (at .261) doesn’t scream “threat.”
  

• Prospects Will Have to Wait – Projecting prospects is not what this system does best. The sample size is not there, and playing time is hard to predict. Right now, the names that I think have the best chance to make an impact are Edwin Arroyo, Hector Rodriguez, and Tyler Callihan.
  
  Arroyo comes with a .256/.300/.333 projection, good for a 72 OPS+. Rodriguez isn’t much better with a 76 OPS+, and Callihan a 75 OPS+. I do think that’s a low bar and one that each player has a reasonable path to surpass, but it’s not clear how playing time could shake out.
  
  The Reds are going to give opportunities mostly to players who we saw last season. Maybe they make another addition from outside the organization, but I do not think 2026 is lining up to be a year where top prospects get a runway.

Cincinnati Reds ZiPS: Pitching Staff

I know the offensive projections did not provide a lot to be excited about, but the pitching staff is a different story. The obvious strength of the 2025 Reds, the rotation might even be better in 2026. Or, at least deeper. Brandon Williamson and Julian Aguiar are set to return from injury, while Chase Burns will be given a bigger opportunity.

The name that logged significant starts and is not returning is Nick Martinez. The bullpen is losing Brent Suter and Scott Barlow, who were mostly fine but not high-impact arms. The rotation is once again looking like a strength, and I think the bullpen will show better as well.

Here are my top takeaways from the projections:

• Chase Burns Establishes Himself, Rhett Lowder Doesn’t – We all saw the raw talent Burns flashed in 2025. A 13.92 K/9 and 2.65 FIP across 43.1 innings should give you every reason to be excited for what he could bring in 2026.
  
  Projected for 21 starts and a 3.78 ERA with 123 strikeouts across 104 innings, Burns would quickly raise the floor, and ceiling, of this rotation. He should have every opportunity to cement himself into this group, with inning restrictions being the only thing that could hold him back.
  
  Rhett Lowder, who has dealt with injuries in his young career, is projected for 23 starts, which is certainly high, considering the rotation is set, and he’s working back from injury. The more concerning stat is his 4.71 ERA and 80 strikeouts across 107 innings. ZiPS doesn’t seem to like Lowder, at least not for 2026.
  

• New Bullpen Additions Impress – I had to pull these projections from the ZiPS articles for the players’ previous teams, so I cannot say with certainty if anything would change once they are added to the Reds. But, ZiPS likes what the Reds have done.
  
  Burke is projected for a 3.71 ERA with an 8.3 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9. Ferguson is right behind him with a 3.83 ERA, which is also exactly what Pierce Johnson is projected for. They aren’t huge names or headline creators, but they’re productive veterans that sometimes don’t get the credit they deserve.
  
  The Reds’ bullpen needed some help, and if these three pitchers produce the way ZiPS projects them to, then the Reds are going to have a very strong pitching staff. I will note, ZiPS projects Tony Santillan (4.24 ERA) to pitch closer to his expected number from last season and is lower on Connor Phillips (4.92 ERA) than most fans.
  

• The Best Reds Rotation in Recent Memory – I’m not sure how deep your personal Reds memories go, but for me, I cannot think of many rotations I’d rather have from recent Reds history. We’re looking at Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Chase Burns, Nick Lodolo, and Brady Singer, with Rhett Lowder, Chase Petty, Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson, and others serving as depth.
  
  It’s a deep rotation that comes with a lot of upside. Greene is projected for a 3.55 ERA with 159 strikeouts across 137 innings. I’d love to see 30 starts out of him, but his injury history halts the projections from getting there. Abbott comes in at a 3.80 ERA, Burns 3.78, Singer 4.39, and Lodolo 4.25.
  
  Personally, I think these are pretty conservative. A number of these guys had career years in 2025, so I understand why they are not all projected to repeat. But, if October comes around and each starter has an ERA under 4.00, would it surprise you? I don’t think so.
  

• Graham Ashcraft’s Trajectory Continues – The move from rotation to bullpen was always going to give Graham Ashcraft a better chance to succeed. Leaning into being a two-pitch pitcher in shorter stints helps his stuff play up and lets him avoid seeing hitters multiple times.
  
  Year one was a success: a 3.99 ERA, 2.72 FIP, 55.9% groundball rate, and career-best 8.82 K/9. ZiPS is projecting a 3.82 ERA, 3.45 FIP, and 8.5 K/9 for 2026. Considering this projection includes data from his time as a starter, I expect his numbers to be better than what you are seeing.
  
  You don’t often see major projected jumps in success for players with a unique prior sample like Ashcraft (starter to relief pitcher). In a case like this, his projections staying relatively in line with the year prior is actually a good sign.

Final Thoughts

If the Reds want to return to the postseason, they either need to add more offensively or the current options all have to outperform their projections. Unlikely, I know. Although I do think a couple of position players will outperform their projections, a more stable veteran with a baseline the team could count on is still a need.

As of today, the Reds are a good team that is still likely on the outside looking in. The Cubs have continued to improve, while the Pirates made a number of offseason moves, and the Brewers are still the Brewers. The Cardinals? Not too worried.

When you look at the projections as a whole, I think they tell the story of the Reds pretty well: A pitching staff that is an obvious strength with a bullpen that has been solidified, but an offense that will hold them back.