What We Learned From Buster Olney on the ‘Just Baseball Show’

This time of the year is always going to bring intrigue. Insiders’ phones are pinging non-stop, and the news leading up to the Winter Meetings next week has the stove sizzling.

Peter Appel and Jack McMullen had a sit-down with ESPN’s Buster Olney on The Just Baseball Show, surrounding the latest rumors in Major League Baseball as we approach the opening of the Winter Meetings.

Olney provided us with multiple nuggets about what he’s hearing surrounding the top free agents on the market, from Kyle Schwarber and Kyle Tucker, to Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz, while also touching on potential blockbuster trades, like Tarik Skubal getting moved after all.

The Minnesota Twins hold some of the top trade chips on the market, but will they actually be moved?

Which segment of the free agent market will start to pick up steam first?

Below, we will dive into all of the most interesting talking points from the conversation, as we get a rare look behind the scenes on what the talk is around baseball ahead of the Winter Meetings.

The Trade Market Is Swirling

Even though there are still plenty of marquee free agents available to sign, Olney made it clear that the trade market is probably as hot as it has ever been, and it all has to do with the impending lockout after the 2026 season.

Teams are scouring the league to try and see where they can match up in trade talks to try and fill their roster needs that way, rather than commit significant money to a player that leads into what has the potential to be a lost season in 2027.

Owners, as has been reported for some time now, are reluctant to want to spend money. The interesting note is what followed that statement by Olney.

He referenced how general managers are looking to gauge trade interest in players who are under contract after the 2026 season. They are trying to find ways to rid themselves of committed money as soon as possible in order to maintain maximum flexibility with whatever new stipulations are to come once a new CBA has been agreed to.

Olney also referenced a couple of players that he has heard the most rumors around heading into the meetings in Orlando. MacKenzie Gore was the first player he was quick to mention.

With the price of starting pitching continuing to rise, a young, controllable starter like Gore has been in high demand.

Teams mentioned were the San Francisco Giants, Baltimore Orioles, and the Houston Astros; teams that typically do not commit a lot of money on the opening market to starting pitchers, but are in need.

Steven Kwan was also mentioned, but he was quick to follow by saying that the chances he moves are low because the Guardians are still looking to compete in the upcoming season.

We also asked him about the biggest potential fish on the trade market

Chances of a Tarik Skubal Trade

Olney stated that he has been talking a lot with high-level executives since the season ended, and their tones have certainly changed as time has passed.

What he was hearing at first was that the likelihood of a Tarik Skubal trade was that he was unlikely to move. Not because the interest wasn’t there, but because there wasn’t any inclination that the Tigers were willing to listen to offers for him.

As the meetings approached, and he rekindled talks with those same executives, he is now hearing that the Tigers are seriously weighing their options with their ace.

With Scott Boras as his agent, the likelihood of an extension happening is essentially zero, leading to the Tigers’ Front Office contemplating whether one final season of Skubal, where they would risk losing him to a single compensation pick, should he sign elsewhere, worth passing up on multiple years of control that would come with the package they would receive in return.

While he noted that the price for Skubal is incredibly high, and rightfully so, Olney does believe that they are going to get blown away by the offers they receive for the back-to-back AL Cy Young Award winner.

What Are the Twins Actually Going to Do?

For all of the fans out there of the TV Show “The Office”, just picture the “snip, snap, snip, snap” scene of Michael Scott and that is a perfect encapsulation of where the Minnesota Twins ownership and Front Office currently stand on the state of their organization.

After moving on from significant players on their roster at the deadline, and rumors continuing to swirl around Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, and Pablo Lopez, the Twins are looking to begin the 2026 season with them on the roster. Olney was clear to say that they should “Rip the Band-Aid off” and fully commit to what looked like a full teardown to the studs.

He did mention that the Twins have been “collecting thoughts” regarding which direction they wanted to head in before ultimately deciding to put an end to the rumors.

Outside of that organization, the consensus he is hearing is in agreement that they should lean in to starting fresh with their roster.

Kyle Schwarber Is the Key to Free Agency

There was one keyword that Olney used when describing the significance of Kyle Schwarber in free agency, and that was “linchpin”.

While the Phillies have been clear in their intentions to retain the designated hitter, Olney also mentioned the NL East rival New York Mets as one of the teams he has heard is kicking the tires on signing Schwarber.

Coming off a season where he clubbed 56 home runs, it should not come as a surprise that Schwarber’s decision could be the first to come, and has the chance to be the one to set the free agent market.

Kyle Tucker’s Market

When we asked about Kyle Tucker’s current market, Olney was just as confused as the rest of us have been with where it seems teams are.

While the Blue Jays have been reported to be the most aggressive up to this point, coming on the heels of the news that he had been seen at their Spring Training facility in Dunedin, FL, Tucker’s market is actually cooler than many had initially anticipated it would be.

He referenced back to the industry’s thoughts dating back to when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. signed his big extension and how that should have been the indicator that he was going to surpass the illustrious $500 million number.

The main concerns surrounding Kyle Tucker are the injuries he has sustained in the past two seasons, most notably the under-reported shin fracture that held him out of the majority of the 2024 season, and the severe second-half struggles he had in Chicago this last season.

When it came to mentioning what he is hearing regarding a contract for Tucker, he stated that some executives around the league were thinking he could go the one-year with options deal, similar to the one that Alex Bregman signed last offseason, to try and recoup some of the value he seemed to have lost.

The enthusiasm around the outfielder is “low”.

Starting Pitchers Will Move First

We polled our Discord for questions that some of our members would like for us to ask Olney during the interview, and the one we got was to ask which market he saw moving quicker once the Winter Meeting kicked off.

The answer was simple: starting pitching.

This shouldn’t really come as a surprise to anyone who has been reading the tea leaves surrounding Major League Baseball.

The need for starting pitching continues to grow more and more each year. With players like MacKenzie Gore, the Marlins’ starting pitchers, and the Twins’ starters being thrown around consistently, it does feel as if the starting pitching market is going to set precedent to what we will see this upcoming Winter Meetings.

This was something that the pre-Thanksgiving Dylan Cease signing should have told us.

Cold Market for the Polar Bear

Pete Alonso’s name has rarely been mentioned since the opted-out soon after the conclusion of the regular season, and it is not by accident.

Olney told Jack and Peter that the market just has not been there for Pete to start the offseason. While a return to the Mets feels like the best fit, there are true sentiments around the league that his market might be low enough to where he suddenly becomes affordable to those teams who did not feel as if they would be able to afford his services.

Josh Naylor’s contract with the Mariners was referenced when he spoke about how the market just hasn’t materialized the way he and Scott Boras had hoped it would.

Will the Yankees Spend?

The Yankees are always mentioned as a suitor for the high-end free agents, so, when we asked Olney about the chances they spend “big” this offseason, he told us that he did not see them spending $200m on one player this offseason.

With a payroll currently projected to be at $213m entering the 2026 season, it does not seem like the Yankees are going to be players in the big market this winter. Kyle Tucker has been a name linked to them for some time, but he does not see how they would enter the fold with what he is likely to command.

The interesting note that he brought up during this question was how the World Series run by the Toronto Blue Jays has leveled out the playing field between big spenders like the Yankees, Dodgers, Mets, and Phillies with the rest of the league.

Can the Mets Still Retain Edwin Díaz?

Edwin Díaz was labeled as the best relief pitcher on the market heading into the offseason after he executed his opt-out from the contract he had with the Mets.

When we asked about how his market had been shaping out and if a potential return to the Mets was still on the table, he was unsure. What he did openly say was that he would label Díaz as the likeliest to be the player getting “stuck” this offseason.

When we asked him what gave him that sense, he mentioned how the typical big spenders either already had significant money invested into the back end of their bullpen (i.e the Dodgers with Tanner Scott) or bigger needs elsewhere on their roster.

Framber’s Value

The one final question that was asked to Olney was surrounding Framber Valdez and if he was the one pitcher remaining who would get the highest dollar amount on the open market.

While he did not shut that down, he did reference Tatsuya Imai being the pitcher who may ultimately get more money, but there are questions around the league regarding his command which may limit his market.

He was also asked if he thought the incident earlier in the year had soured teams on Valdez, and he was under the impression that it did not impact his value, or other teams thoughts about him.