2025 MLB Draft Scouting Report – SS Billy Carlson

Primer: As we inch ever closer to July 13th, I’ll start writing up individual scouting reports for prospects in the 2025 and 2026 draft classes. These reports will be incorporated into our draft board (currently sits at 200 players) and include insight from live looks mixed in with season data to help classify each player with grades.

Each report will consist of tool/pitch grades, future value, film, and honest critique/development ideas for the future.

Prospect Name: Billy Carlson

Position: Shortstop (SS)

School: Corona High School (CA)

College Commitment: Tennessee

Height/Weight: 6’1/180

Bat/Throw: R/R

Age on Draft Day: 18 years, 11 months

Dates Seen: 4/10/2024, 7/17/2024-7/21/2024, 4/9/2025-4/10/2025

Body: Carlson possesses a lean, wiry frame with plenty of projection remaining. Long levers, high waist. There’s room to add ~15-20 pounds of muscle. Twitchy profile.

Swing Mechanics: Carlson utilizes an upright, narrow stance and triggers his operation with a medium-height leg kick with a closed front hip. Hands start high, and there’s some movement going into his load; twitch is evident in his hips when they explode open at foot strike.

Hit: There’s some passivity in his approach, though Carlson doesn’t have a ton of swing-and-miss to his game. He’s posted a contact rate north of 80% since the start of 2024, and he seldom chases pitches out of the zone. Carlson will manipulate the barrel and utilize both sides of the field to his advantage. Scouts were worried about the steepness of his swing and hitting the ball on the ground too often, though Carlson has done a better job of lifting the baseball. The projection here is an above-average, or better, hit tool. GRADE: 55

Power: Given the wiry nature of Carlson’s frame, paired with robust bat speed and a tight coil with his core, there’s solid power projection here with above-average raw juice. The power has ticked up over the past calendar year thanks to the added loft to his swing, as he’s shown the ability to hammer the ball to both sides of the park. He’s routinely posted exit velocities that clear the triple-digit barrier. As he grows into his body, he’ll likely lose some athleticism, though that will come with more over-the-fence production. With this in mind, I’ll place an average grade on his in-game power, though above-average juice is not out of the question. GRADE: 50

Run: Carlson gets out of the box very well and has shown off plus speed. He possesses an athletic gait and has posted home-to-first times in the 4.2-4.25 second range, with the 4.2 mark grading out as plus for a right-handed bat. GRADE: 60

Field: Carlson is a wizard at shortstop, letting his athleticism/twitch shine in the dirt. He’s got incredible range, soft hands, and advanced footwork for the position. He glides to his left and right, allowing him to cover plenty of ground with bounce to his step. He’s got a great internal clock, too. You won’t find many guys better than Carlson at the “six.” He’ll stick there for a long, long time. GRADE: 60

Arm: Carlson’s arm strength is amongst the best in recent memory. He’s a secondary pitcher who has been up to 96 MPH, though he’s flashed higher velocity readings across the diamond during drills. He’s got a quick release and sublime accuracy, as well. It’s a double-plus arm. GRADE: 70

Summation: In a class that has some quality bats at the top of the prep ranks, Carlson looks to be the best one moving forward. His defensive prowess is something teams covet, especially at a keystone position, and his offensive potential is as high as it can get. Assuming that Carlson can grow into more power, it’s a potent bat with the potential for multiple Gold Gloves and All-Star Game appearances. His grade will come with extreme risk, but finding this kind of talent is rare. He’ll hear his name called within the top five picks come July.

FV: 60 (Extreme)

Role: All-Star Player

Grade: Early First Round (Top five picks)