Will Orioles’ Early Rotation Issues Doom Their Season?

One of the biggest talking points surrounding the Baltimore Orioles this past offseason was that the front office failed to make any major additions to the starting rotation.

The Orioles were reportedly in on guys such as Blake Snell and Max Fried, but they failed to sign either of those arms. Then, after losing the free agency battle for Corbin Burnes, the Orioles were left without an ace.

At the beginning of spring training, GM Mike Elias and manager Brandon Hyde were adamant that the team could succeed without an ace. In fact, Elias even said that “it’s nice when you have one, but it’s not something you’re going to have all the time.” 

Now, just a little over two weeks after Opening Day, the Orioles’ rotation is already in a crisis.

The team lost Grayson Rodriguez in spring training to an elbow/triceps injury. This past week, Zach Eflin was placed on the 15-day IL with a right lat strain, which is the same injury that kept Rodriguez out for the last two months of the 2024 season.

What remains of the rotation is not a sight for sore eyes.

Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer have been two of the worst starters in baseball. As of April 14, Morton is sporting an ERA of 8.78, and Kremer’s isn’t much better at 8.16. They’ve each surrendered 13 earned runs on the year, which is tied for the second-most in Major League Baseball.

Kremer has also allowed the 11th-most hits thus far with 21, and he is tied for second in homers allowed with four.

The rest of the rotation is anchored by Tomoyuki Sugano and Cade Povich, who have had up and down starts to the year. Sugano boasts a 3.86 ERA but has already dealt with “double hand cramping” in his first start. Povich has surrendered 24 hits in 15.0 innings of work, struggling to get deep into ballgames.

Needless to say, it hasn’t been a hot start for Baltimore’s starting rotation.

So, what can the Orioles do about this? Are they just holding out for reinforcements until guys return from the IL? Is there anyone on the farm who can plug into the big-league rotation? What about the trade market, will they finally make a splash to address a significant position of need?

Let’s dive into the options the Orioles have to address their ailing rotation. 

When Will the Reinforcements Come Off the IL?

In addition to the rotation, the Orioles are dealing with plenty of injuries to the pitching staff, both in their farm system and in their major league bullpen.

Orioles pitchers who are on the IL

• Zach Eflin
• Kyle Bradish
• Grayson Rodriguez
• Tyler Wells
• Albert Suárez
• Trevor Rodgers
• Andrew Kittredge
• Chayce McDermott

In order to turn this ship around, the Orioles will rely on getting these guys back and healthy.

The name that has the most pressure upon his return is Kyle Bradish. In 2023, Bradish was the ace on an Orioles team that claimed the No. 1 seed in the American League. Bradish finished fourth in Cy Young voting, posted a 2.83 ERA (which was the fourth-best mark in MLB), and was in the top 15 in baseball in BB/9 (2.35) and xERA (3.77) among qualified starters.

After sustaining an elbow injury before spring training in 2024, Bradish only made eight starts in 2024 before getting Tommy John surgery. Even in that brief stint, Bradish managed a 2.75 ERA while striking out 53 hitters in just 39.1 innings.  

We do not have any specifics on when we can expect Bradish to return to the mound. However, if Bradish can produce similar results to what we’ve seen in previous years, he could provide a massive boost to the Orioles rotation for the stretch run. They just have to get there first.

In terms of the other big arms missing from the rotation, the Orioles are also without front-line starters Grayson Rodriguez and Zach Eflin.

Rodriguez suffered an elbow/triceps injury while ramping up during spring training. While Rodriguez has thrown a handful of bullpens since the beginning of the season, Orioles GM Mike Elias recently said there is still no timetable for his return.

In Eflin’s case, the team is still determining how much time he is expected to miss. The hope is that it is only a matter of weeks rather than months.

Which basically means they still do not know how long he will be out.

Any team in baseball that loses their three best starters by mid-April would be facing tough times. However, to quote famous 80s R&B singer Billy Ocean, “when the going gets tough, the tough get going.”

For Bradish, Rodriguez and Eflin to have a chance to pitch in meaningful innings, the team must play well enough to put the team in that position for when they make their return.

Bounce Backs From the Veterans  

While the Orioles wait for Bradish, Rodriguez, and Eflin to return to the mound, the team desperately needs their healthy arms to carry the load in the meantime. Specifically, there is added pressure on both Morton and Kremer to elevate their play.

However, March and April have not been kind to either arm throughout their careers. In those two months, Morton and Kremer have career ERAs of 4.31 and 6.27, respectively.  

In a limited sample size so far this year, the duo has been getting hit hard. After posting career lows in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in 2024, Kremer has surrendered an average exit velocity of 90.9 mph and a hard-hit rate of 44.4% this season.

In Morton’s case, the 41-year-old has surrendered a career-high 62.5% hard-hit rate while posting an astounding 17.5% barrel percentage. For context, that barrel rate would have been the highest mark last season by more than six percentage points.

So, how do Morton and Kremer turn it around? 

Luckily for O’s fans, these guys must be fans of warmer weather. In the month of May, Morton and Kremer have respective career ERAs of 3.76 and 4.10, respectively.

The stats also say that Morton and Kremer have been unlucky so far. Morton is rocking an xERA of 6.11, while Kremer has an even more optimistic one at 4.74. While those numbers are still not great, any improvement would be welcomed by Orioles fans until the cavalry — Bradish, Rodriguez, and Eflin — return to the bump. 

How Can the Farm Help?

It is no secret that during the Orioles’ rebuild, the front office’s mantra was “grow the bats, buy the arms.” While that has provided the team with a lineup full of young, productive hitters, the organization’s current selection of pitchers to call up from the farm is quite thin.

While their top pitching prospect, McDermott, rehabbing a right lat strain, Brandon Young is the most likely guy in the farm to have a shot with the big-league team. In three starts so far in Triple-A, Young has allowed five across 16.1 innings to go with 17 strikeouts.

Brandon Young threw 5.1 hitless innings tonight, walking one batter with eight strikeouts 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

He earned his first win of 2025 tonight and hasn't allowed an earned run this season (11.1 IP, 2 BB, 11 SO). pic.twitter.com/khCDDiIZyc

— Norfolk Tides (@NorfolkTides) April 6, 2025

Last year, split between Double-A and Triple-A, Young pitched to a 3.57 ERA across 111 innings pitched. He made 18 starts in Triple-A, with 89 of those innings coming at the highest level of the minor leagues.

To protect him from the Rule 5 Draft, Young was added to the team’s 40-man roster back in November.

While the Orioles don’t have many pitching prospects that could bolster their rotation this season, they do have plenty of position player prospects who could entice teams with starting pitching at the deadline or even before it.

The most immediate way to add a new ace to the rotation will be via trade. Names like Sandy Alcántara, Pablo López, and maybe even Dylan Cease could be available for the right price.

If the internal solutions aren’t there for the Orioles off the IL, going into the market and getting a top arm may be their best bet to contend this season.  

Let’s Take a Breath

Yes, it is easy for Orioles fans to get upset with the front office for not bolstering the rotation.

And yes, it is easy for Orioles fans to be mad with the baseball gods for hitting them with the injury bug so early on.

However, it’s important to remember that it is only April, and there is plenty of baseball left to be played.

Despite this year starting off extremely poorly, let’s see if the team can turn it around. Elias and company are not going to trade for an ace just because the rotation has started off cold.

If by June things have not gotten any better, then we can have start having conversations about blowing up the rotation. For now, let’s hope the guys can figure it out.