Top Landing Spots for Free Agent Sean Manaea

Heading into this year’s MLB off-season, the starting pitching market seems to be the focal point of many front offices. With other free agents such as Blake Snell and Yusei Kikuchi landing huge contracts, the top arms on this market will likely continue to command the top dollar.

One of these other players is left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea.

Manaea, a 32-year-old starting pitcher, is coming off one of the best years of his career playing for the New York Mets.

In his career year, Manaea threw 181.2 innings, recorded a 3.47 ERA, 114 ERA+, alongside 184 strikeouts, and a 2.8 fWAR. This isn’t just impressive because it’s one of the best years of Manaea’s career, but it comes after struggles in back-to-back seasons. Even with these past struggles looming over Manaea’s free agency, he looks like a completely different pitcher.

After struggling in the 2022 National League Championship Series, Manaea began working with Driveline to completely reinvent himself as a pitcher. Now two years into the process, Manaea has dropped his arm slot to a more comfortable place for him as a pitcher.

Manaea based his new delivery off of Chris Sale’s, which has given him the same level of deception Sale used to succeed his entire career.

Given the level of success Manaea found last year, the demands of this year’s pitching market, and his new windup, it’s safe to say that teams may be very interested in his services. The only question is if he will be perceived and paid to be a frontline starter, and for how many years.

Taking all of these things into consideration, let’s map out some of the best potential landing spots for Sean Manaea this winter.

New York Mets

For many, Manaea returning to New York is the most likely scenario for his free agency this winter. After coming off of a career year, and his playoff success down the stretch, there’s plenty of reason to assume that this pairing isn’t just a one-year-wonder.

With Manaea, Luis Severino and Jose Quintana having all hit free agency, the Mets need to overhaul their rotation again this offseason. They already completed step on in that process, as they just signed Manaea’s former A’s teammate Frankie Montas on a two-year deal.

Montas’ contract is very similar to the one Manaea signed with New York last year, where he can opt out and hit free agency after the season (both are represented by Scott Boras).

After Manaea opted out, the Mets tendered him a $21.05 million dollar qualifying offer, which he rejected. There’s a good chance Manaea earns something close to that $21 million per year, but the left-hander should be able to get it over at least three years, if not four or five.

If there’s any owner in the league who isn’t afraid to pay up for quality starting pitching, it’s Steve Cohen. Cohen handed out record deals to both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, which made them two of the highest-paid players in the league in terms of AAV.

If Manaea is looking for a longer-term deal, he may also find that in New York as well.

Manaea’s ERA of 3.47 was second in the rotation, only finishing behind David Peterson. Given the fact that Manaea threw 60 more innings than Peterson, this type of success will be hard to replace. He also produced the most strikeouts out of anyone on the roster.

When Manaea was asked to reflect on the season following the Mets’ elimination in this year’s NLCS, he replied by saying, “There’s nobody I’d rather do it with.”

Taking all of these things into consideration, Manaea reuniting with the Mets this off-season feels almost too perfect. While this may not be the deal that ends up happening, it’s certainly one of the more likely matches for both sides.

Baltimore Orioles

The Baltimore Orioles are another team that enters this year’s off-season looking to upgrade in the starting pitching department. With their ace, Corbin Burnes hitting free agency and potentially going elsewhere, they are in serious need of a frontline arm.

Manaea could be the perfect solution for this team.

Coming off of a season where the O’s went 91-71, their starting pitching was one of the places that they struggled mightily. In their 6-man rotation, Corbin Burnes is the only pitcher who finished with an ERA under 3.50. This is truly alarming for a team that finished with 90 wins, and for one that has to fight in the offense-heavy American League East.

Had Manaea been on this team, he would’ve had the second-lowest ERA, second-highest ERA+, and first in strikeouts. If you remove Burnes from the equation, he would’ve been first in all of these areas. A pitcher of Manaea’s caliber is exactly what this team needs to cement them as a true contender, especially if Burnes decides to leave.

The only question then becomes, will the Orioles be willing to pay up for Manaea’s talents?

I think it’s possible, especially with the new ownership group taking over. David Rubenstein leads this new group of owners, with a net worth of nearly $2 billion dollars. While we need to see some action before we can truly be certain if they’ll pay up, it’s definitely in the realm of possibility.

One thing is for certain, however. Now is the time to buy if you’re the Baltimore Orioles.

With young, budding stars such as Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday at the MLB level, now is the time to go all in. If the Orioles are looking to upgrade their starting pitching, Manaea could be the perfect fit.

Boston Red Sox

This off-season, rumors are circling that the Red Sox are looking to make some serious upgrades to their team in many ways. From rumors of landing Juan Soto, to potentially making bids to other superstar pitchers, its becoming clear that Boston may be looking to spend this off-season.

If pitching is truly a place they want to spend, Manaea may be a perfect fit.

The Boston Red Sox put together one of the more interesting rotations in baseball last season, and parts of their staff really shined bright. Their ace, Tanner Houck pitched nearly 180 innings of 3.12 ERA baseball, while also putting up a 137 ERA+.

Also, Nick Pivetta put up a 4.14 ERA, alongside 172 strikeouts in 145.2 innings of his contract year. Kutter Crawford shined at times as well, as his 4.36 ERA kept the Red Sox in many games. However, their rotation is far from complete.

If they can’t land one of the big fish of the starting pitching market this off-season, settling for Sean Manaea is far from the worst-case scenario. Manaea was consistent all year long, which is something Boston really needs in their rotation.

Also, Nick Pivetta was offered a qualifying offer but rejected it in favor of free agency this winter. If the Red Sox aren’t able to retain Pivetta, this makes their need for a pitcher like Manaea even stronger.

Boston is searching for a pitcher who can stand in and be a leader in this rotation, and after his 2024 campaign, Manaea is the perfect player to fill this role. Something else to note: Manaea has become a ground ball pitcher, which will play incredibly well in the hitter-friendly Fenway Park.

Take a look at his splits below, to see just how he stacks up

When you take all of these factors into consideration, Sean Manaea and the Boston Red Sox make a good pairing. At the end of the day, it’ll likely come down to whether or not Boston is willing to fork over the contract that he may be looking for.

Houston Astros

The Houston Astros are coming into this year’s MLB off-season in a very interesting place.

One of the franchise’s key superstars, Alex Bregman, is hitting free agency, and likely won’t be returning. They’ve also lost Kikuchi to the Angels, which is a huge blow to the rotation.

Kikuchi was one of the better pitchers in the game after his trade, recording an ERA of just 3.49 and 89 strikeouts in just under 70 innings innings with the club. With some serious money coming off of the books, and the Astros losing Kikuchi, who better to add than Sean Manaea?

As I mentioned earlier with Boston, Manaea is a ground ball pitcher first and foremost. This will be extremely helpful playing in Houston. With the Crawford Boxes being a lethal threat to any fly-ball pitcher, Manaea is the exact type of pitcher who can work them on a regular basis.

Manaea could easily step in as the number two or number three starter in this rotation, likely only competing with Hunter Brown and Framber Valdez as the top arms in the rotation.

This isn’t to discount Ronel Blanco, who was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season, pitching to a 141 ERA+.

In my opinion, Manaea is the perfect player to fill the shoes of Kikuchi, if they choose to do so.

Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers are entering this off-season as this past year’s surprise team.

After selling off Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha, and other key pieces at the deadline, the team wasn’t expected to go far. However, they snuck into the Postseason as a Wild Card team, making it to the American League Division Series before they were sent home.

There’s been rumors that the Tigers are looking to upgrade their arms this off-season, potentially with a reunion with Flaherty, or seeking outside reinforcements. If they choose to look elsewhere, I think Sean Manaea deserves consideration.

The Tigers have a fairly interesting young core of pitchers they’ve put together, headlined by Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal. They also have former 2018 number-one overall pick Casey Mize, as well as Reese Olson, who really held his own down the stretch for Detroit.

Skubal was the only pitcher on the roster who recorded over 115 innings pitched last year. His 192 innings were nearly 80 more than the next-closest Tiger, as Olson and Kenta Maeda each checked in at 112 1/3 IP. This is truly unsustainable, and getting another workhorse in this rotation would do wonders for their playoff odds in 2025.

Manaea would be heading to another pitcher-friendly environment, which may have him become an even better pitcher than he already is. Looking at his home run totals alone, Manaea would’ve allowed four fewer home runs in 2024 if he had been with Detroit.

This pairing may not feel as obvious as some of the other ones we’ve covered, but all things considered, there’s no denying that Sean Manaea would make a lot of sense for the 2025 Detroit Tigers.