Did the Phillies Wait Too Long To Extend Ranger Suárez?

Last summer, when Ranger Suárez was sitting on a 10-2 record and a 2.27 ERA at the end of June, I wondered if his success was flying too far under the radar for him to earn an All-Star selection.

There was no doubt he was deserving. By the end of the first half, he ranked fourth among all NL hurlers in FanGraphs WAR. Only six pitchers had thrown more innings, and only three qualified starters had a lower ERA.

Yet, his rotation-mate Zack Wheeler was one of the very few NL starters with a lower ERA. Another one of his teammates, Cristopher Sánchez, was one of the few NL starters with a higher fWAR.

Suárez was only the third-most famous (behind Wheeler and Aaron Nola) and third-most successful (behind Wheeler and Sánchez) pitcher in his own rotation.

What’s more, the Philadelphia Phillies had three position players starting the All-Star Game (Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Alec Bohm), and the top two relievers in the NL by fWAR (Jeff Hoffman and Matt Strahm).

If anyone was going to be the odd man out, I thought it would be Suárez, who was already 28 years old and playing in his seventh big league season but had yet to ever qualify for the ERA title.

I try to avoid leaning on the concept of “underrated-ness” in my writing because it’s a quality that’s all but impossible to quantify. So, I won’t say that Suárez was underrated, but I will say that I felt as if his greatness might easily be overlooked.

I was thrilled when All-Star rosters were announced and the name “Ranger Suárez” was listed as part of the National League pitching staff. There was no question he deserved it, but we all know that the most deserving players aren’t always the ones that make the cut.

Fast forward a year, and Suárez is pitching like an All-Star once again. Though he missed the first month of the 2025 season, he’s going to make it difficult for his fellow players to leave him off their ballots and/or for the commissioner’s office to ignore his All-Star case.

He has a 2.08 ERA through 10 games, and that includes his rough season debut, when he let seven runners cross the plate and couldn’t escape the fourth. Since that day, all nine of his outings have been quality starts. He’s pitched into the seventh in all but one. He has given up nine runs (eight earned) in 61.1 innings of work.

Suárez will not qualify for the ERA title by the All-Star Game. He might never qualify this season. He missed a significant chunk of time.

But if he did qualify? His 2.08 ERA would rank second only to Cy Young frontrunner Paul Skenes.

Despite his limited innings, Suárez ranks fifth among all NL starters in Run Expectancy Wins (REW) and sixth in Win Probability Added (WPA). He ranks fourth in both leveraged and context-neutral run value (per Statcast). His 1.9 fWAR ranks 12th, but if he keeps up his current pace over his next three starts, he could certainly jump into the top 10.

For what it’s worth, 11 starters have made the NL All-Star team in each of the last two years. There aren’t always that many, but after injury replacements, there are usually at least 10.

Am I confident that Suárez will be one of them again in 2025? No. But if he isn’t, the only reason will be a lack of playing time. In other words, I’m not concerned anymore about anyone overlooking Ranger Suárez. He has forced the league to take notice.

Instead, I’m worried that Suárez has become so good and so highly regarded that he won’t be pitching in Phillies pinstripes come 2026.

Since his breakout season in 2021, Suárez has thrown 602 innings with a 3.14 ERA and 13.1 fWAR. Out of 69 pitchers with a minimum of 500 IP over the last five seasons, his ERA ranks ninth, in between Cy Young winners Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole.

On top of that, he has built a reputation as a dominant postseason performer. In 37.2 playoff innings, he has a 1.43 ERA and a 2.79 FIP.

A lack of innings is his biggest red flag. He has spent time on the IL in five of the last six years and has never pitched more than 155.1 frames in a season. That said, he has never let his injuries keep him off the field for too long, and he has pitched well before and after each of his IL stints.

Consider this: Suárez pitched at least 100 innings with an fWAR over 2.0 every year from 2021-24. Only 12 other pitchers can say the same: Wheeler, Nola, Snell, Corbin Burnes, Logan Gilbert, Logan Webb, Dylan Cease, Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo, Pablo López, Kevin Gausman, and Chris Bassitt.

By the end of the 2025 campaign, Burnes will fall off that list. Snell and Nola likely will too, as could López. Castillo is on pace to fall just short of the 2.0 WAR cutoff.

So, Suárez might not be durable, but he is dependable. Indeed, only a small handful of pitchers have been as consistently dependable as Suárez over the past several years. Arguably the worst among them, Bassitt, signed a three-year, $63 million deal ($21MM AAV) entering his age-34 season.

If Suárez can stay healthy for the rest of this year, he will put himself in a great position to cash in big when he hits free agency in November.

In addition to Suárez, names like Cease, Framber Valdez, Zac Gallen, and Michael King will headline the 2025-26 free agent starting pitching class. Suárez doesn’t have the track record or the proven durability of Valdez or Cease, but right now, I’d be comfortable putting him ahead of Gallen and King in my free agent rankings.

That means he’s going to be looking for a multi-year commitment worth upwards of $20 million per year. Think Sean Manaea/Nathan Eovaldi money, but for a pitcher several years younger.

Will the Phillies be willing to pay top dollar for another starter? I’m skeptical.

Wheeler will earn $42 million next year, Nola $24.6 million, and Taijuan Walker $18 million. Jesús Luzardo is going to demand a significant raise in arbitration. Sánchez will make just $3.5 million on a criminally team-friendly extension, but still, the Phillies are spending a lot of cash on their starting rotation. With Andrew Painter and Mick Abel also in the fold, I think Philadelphia is almost certain to let Suárez walk.

I get it. But that doesn’t mean it’s not a damn shame. Suárez has been an amazing story for this club. He came practically out of nowhere and blossomed into an ace reliever in 2021. He then made a seamless transition into the rotation and has continued to excel. He has been so important to this team in the regular season and the playoffs.

Fans can and should give the Phillies plenty of credit for identifying Wheeler as an undervalued free agent, selecting Nola in the draft, and acquiring Sánchez in a trade with the Rays – and then helping all three become far better than anyone expected.

However, Wheeler was already an established talent when he signed with the Phillies. Nola was practically big league ready when they took him seventh overall out of LSU in 2014. Sánchez began his development in the Rays organization.

So, I’d argue Suárez is Philadelphia’s best completely homegrown pitching success story since Cole Hamels. What’s more, no current Phillie has been in the organization longer. With the obvious exceptions of Harper and Wheeler, I’m not sure any player on the Phillies roster is as universally beloved as Suárez.

Even if the team can survive without him as far as the standings go, losing Suárez would be a tremendous blow.

Hindsight is 20/20, but I can’t help but wish the Phillies had made a more serious effort to extend Ranger Suárez even just a little bit earlier.

Around this time last year, Dave Dombrowski suggested he’d love to extend Suárez but said such discussions probably wouldn’t happen until after the season (per The Athletic’s Matt Gelb).

Yet, if the Phillies had extended Suárez before his first All-Star appearance, before he finished what was arguably the best season of his career, before he left everything on the field in a dominant NLDS outing, and before he got off to such a hot start in 2025, perhaps they could have gotten it done for a lower price.

To be clear, I’ll be happy for Suárez no matter where he ends up. I’m still holding out hope that he remains a Phillie in 2026 and beyond, but he deserves a contract commensurate with his talent. He has earned every penny he’ll sign for and more.

At the same time, if he signs elsewhere, I’ll be sad to see him go, knowing that if the Phillies had acted sooner, perhaps they wouldn’t have had to say goodbye.

Stats and rankings updated prior to games on June 25.