MLB Best Bets May 11th, 2023
After a winning day yesterday we look to keep the momentum going, three plays catch our eye in today's limited MLB slate.
For those of you who have been watching the Not Gambling Advice stream, I’ve been appearing and giving my picks. Throughout the season I will continue to make my picks on the show, which streams on YouTube and Twitch every day 4:00 to 6:30 ET.
If you were following me on Twitter than you know we had ourselves a day yesterday. We went 4-1 picking up +4.65 units! If the Reds somehow could’ve gotten more than just two hits we could’ve had a perfect day. We are leaving yesterday in the past and we are focusing on today. In today’s limited slate we have three one unit plays. Let’s rock.
Just so we all know, I’m using BetMGM lines only this year. Here’s a link to get started with a risk-free $1000 bet. You can also use code “JBFANS” if you’re betting on MLB. Wager $10 on any MLB game and receive $200 instantly. All prop entries will be on PrizePicks: Here’s a link to get a 100% deposit match.
2023 Overall Record: 92-62-2 (+24.70 U)
San Diego Padres vs. Minnesota Twins @ 1:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Yu Darvish vs. Bailey Ober
System play! First off this game opened almost at a pick ’em the Padres were a -110 road favorite and that line has been steamed up to -120. Some of that respected money has come in on San Diego and we are going to back the better team.
We have multiple systems in this matchup. Interleague favorites have been a consistent system for us this season and interleague road favorites are 35-20, 64% this season. Road favorites who made the postseason against teams who didn’t are hitting at 62% and non-divisional road favorites are also hitting at 62%.
This is a fade spot for the Twins as well they are 2-8 as an underdog this season. I’m going to get behind Darvish and the Padres in this one. I expect them to pull off the win in today’s rubber match.
The Play: San Diego Padres ML (-115) 1.15 U to win 1 U
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees @ 7:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Drew Rasmussen vs. Domingo German
It’s Drew day! At this point in the season it’s almost a system play for me. Rasmussen is on the bump tonight in Yankee stadium and the Rays are coming off a series loss to Baltimore while New York just swept Oakland.
Rasmussen has a 3.54 ERA on the road entering this one and I see him outdueling Domingo German in the Bronx. This duo squared off a week ago with German getting the upperhand. He went five innings only giving up two runs over five frames. I see this Rays offense fairing much better this time out.
The Rays are still the best team in baseball and anytime I can get the Rays on a short line I’m going to play it until it backfires. The Rays are hitting .272 opposed to the Yankees who are batting .235. The Rays typically bounce back in these spots and I don’t see them losing three straight games on the road. They are 6-2 in their last eight road games and with the better pitcher tonight I’m backing Tampa.
The Play: Tampa Bay Rays F5 ML (-120) 1.2 U to win 1 U
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Alex Cobb vs. Tommy Henry
Can we take a second and appreciate how good Alex Cobb has pitched this season. He comes into this game with a 2.01 ERA striking out 38 batters in 40.1 IP. The veteran has shown great command of all his pitches this season he is walking batters 3.6% of the time which is in top 6% of the league according to statcast.
The Giants as of late have been one of the best hitting teams against lefties this season. They are taking on Tommy Henry who is coming off his best start of the season. Henry has struggled to stay consistent in his first couple of starts in 15.1 IP he has seven walks, if he allows a struggling Giants team to get free passes he might not last long in this start.
San Francisco is 5-0 in their last five games against a left-handed starter and have won five of their last seven games. I see this as a good bounce back spot after losing to the Nationals yesterday with their ace on the mound.
The Play: San Francisco Giants ML (-129) 1.29 U to win 1 U