Does Michael King’s Padres Surge Prove the Juan Soto Trade Is a Win-Win?

The San Diego Padres began the 2024 season with pockets nearly $100 million lighter after an offseason of various decisions revolved around shedding payroll.

And the most noticeable move made by A.J. Preller and his staff was sending league superstar Juan Soto to the New York Yankees in early December.

Any team that gets a player of Soto’s caliber is already poised to lean towards the winning side of the deal, and Soto did not disappoint in his first year in the Bronx posting a career high 8.1 fWAR and 41 homers, as per FanGraphs, and help lead the Yankees back to the postseason with the best record in the American League.

The Padres definitely landed a solid return though, featuring young promising arms in Drew Thorpe and Jhony Brito alongside Michael King, who put together an impressive 3.9 fWAR in a combination of starts and relief appearances for New York in 2023.

But after San Diego subsequently sent Thorpe in a package to Chicago to bring in former Cy Young runner-up Dylan Cease from the White Sox, it looked as though Cease would be the biggest win for the Padres in the Soto saga heading into 2024.

However, this season King proved why the Padres were so determined to land him in a deal for Soto. And after he followed up a remarkable regular season with an outstanding Game 1 start against the Atlanta Braves in their Wild Card series on Tuesday night, King has proven why this deal is firmly a win-win deal for both parties.

King Already Had the Trade Heading Towards a Win-Win Case Scenario

As I mentioned already, King was excellent in not only his first full year with the Padres, but his first full season as a starting pitcher.

In 31 outings, 30 of which were starts, he posted a 2.95 ERA and a 3.33 FIP to go along with a 1.19 WHIP, a .220 AVG against and 201 strikeouts in a 173.2 innings.

King lead all Padres starters, with at least 80+ innings pitched, in ERA and trailed only Cease in fWAR and FIP.

And King posted very impressive advanced metrics in 2024. He sported above average rates in both xERA and xBA this season. His xERA of 3.54 and xBA of .228 both ranked in the 69th percentile of MLB pitchers.

His swing and miss metrics ranked even better amongst big league arms. He landed in the 81st percentile in K-rate at 27.7%, the 78th percentile in whiff rate at 29.2% and the 70th percentile of chase rate at 30.5%.

And he shone when it came to the how opponents had against him, as they struggled make quality contact off of him. His 85.7 mph average exit velocity placed him in the 99th percentile of MLB this season. He paired that with a 97th percentile hard-hit rate of 30.3% and a 79th percentile barrel rate of 6.2%.

This culminated in some excellent results for a majority of his five individual pitch offerings, including sub .210 AVG against numbers for his sinker, changeup and sweeper.

King Took it to Another Level When it Mattered Most

It’s vitally important to have regular season success, as good results over 162 games usually results in postseason baseball.

And the postseason, more importantly World Series glory, is what every team ultimately plays for.

So when Michael King went out and threw seven innings of shutout ball with 12 strikeouts and no walks allowed against the Braves on Tuesday, those seven innings solidified what the 173.2 innings of regular season baseball started to prove…that the both the Padres and the Yankees are firmly in the win column of the Juan Soto deal.

King pitched like an ace in his first career postseason start, as he’s now the first pitcher to strikeout 12 while posting no earned runs or walks in their first postseason start.

We already knew what Cease and Darvish were both capable of and the ace upside they each possess, but after Tuesday night, paired with that impressive 2024 regular season, the Padres could have a third ace on their hands in King.

And given the fact that all three are still under control through 2025, the Padres have another year with their “big three” on the mound.

This definitely puts San Diego in a better place at the moment in terms of their return in the Soto deal, as the Soto becomes an unrestricted free agent this offseason and the Yankees could end up with nothing but bench outfielder Trent Grisham from this trade beyond 2024.

Michael King has already made both parties winners in this deal, but if this is just the start of a magical postseason run that builds momentum into 2025, then the Padres could be outright winners in a matter of weeks, despite giving up a top five talent in baseball.