The Mets and Phillies Share the Same Weakness in the NLDS

While they are bitter division rivals, the New York Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies are more alike than they are different. Especially this year.

Two teams built around star-studded lineups, the Mets and Phillies have proven that they have some of the most firepower in baseball. These teams were both ranked in the top 10 in runs scored, home runs, OPS and wRC+ during the regular season.

During Game 2 of the NLDS, we saw those lineups going back-and-forth in a classic playoff game, where the Phillies scored three runs to tie the game in the 6th, only for the Mets to go up in the 7th, the Phillies to go up in the 8th, the Mets to tie it in the top of the 9th, before Philly walked it off in the bottom half to even the series.

These lineups have proven that they can score at will when they see the right matchups, and so far this series, most of those hitter-friendly at-bats have come late in games. In fact, 18 of the 21 runs scored across Game 1 and 2 in Philly came in the 6th inning or later.

These late-inning barrages have showed a potential Achilles heel that each of these teams share. And that is the real concern about who is getting big outs for them out of the bullpen.

Teams Led by Their Starting Pitching

Another interesting similarity between the Mets and Phillies is how much they leaned on their starting pitching throughout the 2024 season. Both teams finished in the top-five in MLB when it comes to innings pitched by their starters, with each rotation pitching to a sub 4.00 ERA.

The Phillies had the better rotation, led by Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez and Aaron Nola, along with a great first half from All-Star Ranger Suarez. The Phillies starters pitched to a 3.81 ERA.

In New York, a group that leaned heavily on Sean Manaea, Luis Severino, Jose Quintana and David Peterson combined to pitch to a 3.91 ERA. The Mets starters outperformed the Phillies from June on by a wide margin, pitching to a 3.67 ERA compared to a 4.51 ERA.

The same could be said when it comes to the Phillies to start the season however, as they had the best rotation in baseball up until June, having pitched to an MLB-best 2.69 ERA through the month of May.

Regardless of how their seasons broke down, the Mets and Phillies entered this series feeling good about the innings that would be able to get from their starting pitching, based on their performance this year and track record in the past.

The Mets hold the edge when it comes to their starter depth, as Kodai Senga has returned this series to give the Mets six starting pitchers that they trust to pitch innings for them.

In Game 1, that meant two innings from Senga and three from David Peterson. Tylor Megill pitched in relief in Game 2. Where the Phillies lack in depth, they make up for in top-end talent, as Zack Wheeler is far and away the best pitcher in this series.

Behind Wheeler, Sanchez is coming off a great season, and a strong playoff debut on Sunday. Nola is as battle-tested as they come. The wild card for the Phillies is their slated No. 4 starter Ranger Suarez, who pitched to an ERA over 6.00 in his final 10 starts.

Still, Suarez has been nails in the past two postseasons, pitching to a career 1.62 ERA in October. We will see if he can rediscover that past form in these playoffs.

Suarez will face off against Jose Quintana, who has been on a tear lately and is coming off a great performance in Game 3 of the Wild Card round.

Quintana has been at the top of his game since September, but also doesn’t posses the stuff of a front-end starter, which should give the Phillies lineup an opportunity to knock him out of the game early. Even if they don’t fully get to him.

Tonight, we will see a matchup of Nola vs. Manaea, where each team is throwing a frontline starter that can give them length. After this game, one team will be facing elimination, and the pitching matchup of Suarez and Quintana leads plenty of room for some more crazy finishes to this NLDS.

When push comes to shove, these games could very well all be decided late. With each lineup using every last out to try to push enough runs across to be victorious. If that is the case, the team with the better bullpen might win this series. So which team has an edge there?

Who’s Bullpen Will Blow The Series?

Nothing in the sport of baseball is more volatile then bullpens. These units evolve constantly throughout the season, with arms shuttled back and forth from Triple-A, as teams are always in search of finding that winning combination.

During the regular season, the Phillies relievers were sixth in fWAR in MLB, and ranked third in K/9 and were 14th in ERA. The Mets bullpen led the MLB in strikeouts (10.61 K/9), but were 17th in ERA and 13th in fWAR.

For teams that were ranked top five in MLB for innings pitched by their starters, the Mets and Phillies were naturally in the bottom-five when it comes to the innings their relievers covered.

Looking at the names the Phillies can roll out with Jeff Hoffman (2.17 ERA), Matt Strahm (1.87 ERA), Orion Kerkering (2.29 ERA), and Carlos Estevez (2.45 ERA), you could say Philly has the advantage, but all of those pitchers (outside of Estevez) have given up runs in this series so far.

On the Mets side, Edwin Diaz is clearly the top weapon, but he has been used an incredible amount so far in October. Diaz’s performance has been inconsistent all year, which you could say about his set-up men in Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek and Reed Garrett as well.

As this series wears on, there is every chance we see each team leaning into their starting pitching depth to get around the lack of trust they have in their relievers. Based on the off-days for travel, each team can start both their Game 1 and Game 2 staters twice in this series.

For the Phillies, this would mean having both Zack Wheeler and Cristopher Sanchez available for Game 5, for the Mets that would mean Kodai Senga and Luis Severino would each be available.

Considering the fact that Senga is only likely available for three innings, being able to turn to Severino, or David Peterson again, is a huge advantage to avoid leaning on their shaky bullpen.

For the Phillies, there might be temptation to pitch Wheeler on three days rest in Game 4, if they are either facing elimination, or if they have a good chance to clinch the series early and avoid a Game 5 altogether.

This series could very well be won by which manager pieces things together better down the stretch.

Only time will tell which team’s Achilles heel will be exposed in this series, and which team can overcome their weaknesses to advance to the NLCS. If the first two games have been any indication though, we are about to watch a series that could turn into an absolute dogfight.