Jeimer Candelario’s Bounce Back is Needed for the Reds

The Cincinnati Reds’ signing Jeimer Candelario in December of 2023 was a surprise. A team with buddling young talent at first and third left many wondering how the puzzle would all fit. Like most roster situations, it worked itself out.

Third baseman Noelvi Marte was hit with an 80-game PED suspension, while first baseman Christian Encarnacion-Strand struggled mightily before a wrist injury ended his season. Even more than before, the Reds needed Candelario to be the veteran of this team, step up, and help stabilize the lineup. Instead, he put together a worse season than his 2022, a season which led to his non-tender.

Cincinnati will have Matt McLain back after missing all of last season. Encarnacion-Strand returns and the additions of Gavin Lux and Austin Hays should help lighten the load on Candelario.

While Candelario does not have to be a middle of the lineup force, he does need to be better than last season. Even if the baseline is a league average player, but I think he could be much more.

Before we jump into what Candelario’s 2025 might look like, let’s rewind to 2024. We need a full understanding of what went wrong and why his production took such a dip.

What Went Wrong in 2024

After inking a three-year, $45 million deal, Candelario was not the player the Reds had hoped for. The production dipped, defense took a step back, and his approach worsened as his confidence faded. For a player to go from non-tendered to signing a substantial deal probably comes with some pressure. Candelario struggled out of the gate, which isn’t too unusual for him, before settling in.

As the weather warmed up, so did his bat. In May, Candy posted a .759 OPS before exploding with a .894 OPS in June. Finally settling in and finding his stride, Candelario slashed .290/.302/.591 with eight home runs in June and looked like he was ready to take off.

Then injuries set in. In late June a hamstring injury popped up that would not cause him to miss significant time, but did effect his play. You could see a player who was battling through something and could not swing with the same comfort or balance. In July, Candy posted a .181/.243/.319 slash while striking out left and right. A completely different player than the month prior.

Similar struggles continued into August when a fractured toe ended his season. As much as I would love to push all the blame toward injury and promise a massive season simply because he is healthy, I’d be lying. There’s a few layers to his struggles that can still prove to be an issue in 2025.

Candelario was never known as much of a power hitter. His years in Detroit playing at Comerica Park robbed him of home run numbers but did help him rack up doubles.

A move to Great American Ballpark was always going to inflate his numbers and we did see that evidenced by his 20 home runs in in only 112 games. However, the batted ball data was worse than previous years and expected numbers tell a different story.

Another alarming development was his average exit velocity drop from roughly 88 mph to 86.9 mph last season. His max went from 111 mph each of the last four seasons to just 108.2 mph last season. This drop could be attributed to injury or some other factor but is an issue regardless.

A player who already struggles to make hard impact cannot afford to take a step back in this department.

Lastly, Candelario struggled against lefties, who he has historically hit well. While the same size was only 147 plate appearances, his .652 OPS against south paws was nearly .100 lower than his career numbers.

The drop off in power (.346 SLG) was a major concern and will need to be closely monitored this upcoming season. Being a switch-hitter is part of what made Candelario an attractive fit in this lineup and platooning him will only be another demerit on his report card.

Why a Bounce Back can Happen

What exactly does a bounce back look like? Well, if you believe in season seesaw types of trends, then you have found the right guy! In 2021 Candelario post a 119 wRC+, followed by an 80, 118, and 87 last year. So, we can go ahead an pencil him in for a 115 wRC+ or more, right?

Jokes aside, this type of up and down offensive production is more than just a coincidence, but a product of a player like Candelario who doesn’t have top notch power but can spray gaps. How many of those doubles turn into outs and how many turn into home runs can drastically change the season outlook for a player.

Which brings me back to Candelario’s fit in Great American Ballpark, a ballpark that his expected stats love. We all know how players can experience a power surge in Cincinnati, but Candelario’s is drastic. We saw a glimpse of this last season with 15 of his 20 home runs coming at home.

For a player who does not post high end exit velocities, playing a full, healthy, season in Great American Ball Park will help maximize his power.

Two problems listed above, injury and hitting against lefties, should both improve in 2025. I truly believe his injury impacted his performance more than any other factor. The player we saw post injury was vastly different than the player I have watched for a couple of years. Now healthy, we will see if regression could be blamed on health or if something else is a larger factor.

Another determining factor is how well Candelario hits fastballs. Sure, that sounds pretty elementary, but there’s a direct correlation in his best seasons and his success against velocity.

Hitting fastballs is Candelario’s bread and butter. This is where he taps into the majority of his power and where he makes up for his sub- .200 career average against breaking balls.

His value year-to-year has teetered on how well he hits velocity due to his lack of impact and lift on other pitches. We saw his success in June come with a .305 average on fastballs, which dropped after his injury to .217 in July and .242 in August.

Final Thoughts

I find it hard to believe that Candelario will be worse in 2025. I think there was some pressure coming off signing a substantial contract that led him to trying to do too much.

His approach slipped and he was making swing decisions he did not make it the past. At the very least, I think we see a more patient and less aggressive hitter which could result in better production.

We all know disappointment is nothing more than expectations minus reality. Without a doubt, 2024 was a disappointment but what should the reality be for 2025?

Most projection systems have Candelario around a 98-103 wRC+ with 18-20 home runs. To me, a reasonable expectation is anywhere from 100-115 wRC+ and 25 home runs.

The Reds need Candelario to be a stable veteran that helps balance some of the ups and downs we see from younger players. The team also needs some power production and reaching 25 is very doable if he can stay healthy.