How Can the Reds Fix their Outfield Problems?

The more I think about it, the stranger last season feels. From the long list of injuries to the number of underwhelming players, things certainly went sideways, fast. However, it was not all bad. Hunter Greene was one of the better pitchers in baseball and Elly De LA Cruz flashed brilliance.

Although last season was a disappointment, Cincinnati is still a young team with plenty of talent. That should not hold the front office back from making a number of moves to improve the roster immediately. Of all the areas to start, I thought focusing on the most underperforming position group would be a good start, the outfield.

You all know the names. Jake Fraley, Spencer Steer, TJ Frield, Stuart Fairchild, Will Benson, and so on. A group of solid players who all experienced some kind of struggles in 2024. A group with talent, but not exactly a jersey seller or superstar. A group that can, and should, see stronger competition and a shake-up of the depth chart.

40 Man Rostered Outfielders

Options: Will Benson (L), Blake Dunn (R), Stuart Fairchild (R), Jake Fraley (L), TJ Friedl (L), Rece Hinds (R), Jacob Hurtubise (L), Spencer Steer (R), Joey Wiemer (R)

When looking at this group the first thing that came to mind was “no one really took a big step forward last year”. Will Benson was a complete mess, striking out almost 40% of the time while also seeing his power dip (.190 ISO).

Fraley dealt with a terrible health situation with his daughter combined with an injury and didn’t really look like the Fraley we know. Friedl had a list of injuries and Fairchild held his own considering his role but proved unplayable against righties.

Outside of the primary group, the minor league depth is closer to long shots than proven Major Leaguers. Hinds had an incredible first few games but was not given much opportunity as strikeout concerns still loom. Dunn, who also had an early season injury, looked far off from 2023. Hurtubise and Wiemer are off a major league tool, but not enough of them.

As I look ahead to 2025, there’s room for improvement, but also reason to believe a couple of these players can, and should, be back in their roles. Steer put up a 20/20 season but was not the same hitter from 2023.

I think there’s enough talent there to bank on a better season and his versatility allows opportunity elsewhere if needed. I’m willing to see what a healthy Fraley and Friedl can bring whether it be as a starter, platoon, or bench outfielder.

Possible Starting Options

With Steer being able to move around, Fraley far from a sure thing, and Friedl’s injury past, there’s definitely room to add an everyday player. Stuart Fairchild is out of options and while he’s an okay option and good platoon player, an upgrade wouldn’t hurt.

Let’s take a look at a few names I think make sense and could have a role.

Michael Conforto – 31 – L/R

2024 Stats: 488 PA, .237/.309/.450, 20 HR, 112 wRC+

The more I think about it, the more I talk myself into Conforto being the right move.

While he has not been the same player we saw early in his career with the Mets, Conforto brings a professional approach, a good eye for the zone, and power that will play up in Great American Ballpark. He still makes quality contact and a move to Cincinnati would help some of those doubles turn into home runs.

Nothing about his profile or style of play concern me about a quick decline. His defense is below average, but all players in the Reds budget are going to come with some variation of red flags. A veteran bat with a swing that would fit the ballpark.

A similar thought process and projection to what the Reds did with Jeimer Candelario last season, but Conforto has a better, or at least longer, track record. Entering his age 32 season, Conforto likely will not demand too much in terms of salary or term that would steer Cincinnati away.

Tyler O’Neill – 29 – R/R

2024 Stats: 473 PA, .241/.336/.511, 31 HR, 131 wRC+

Signing an often injured player coming off a year he’s only repeated once (2021) comes with obvious concerns. For the majority of his career, O’Neill has been a high strikeout player with power and injury after injury. He’s a lefty masher (.923 career OPS vs LHP) but is solid against righties as well. The Reds need more power, and O’Neill has some of the best pure power on the market.

His defense has trended in the wrong direction but is still passable and not yet a DH only. Although you would be paying him as a starter, and he will be getting starter at bats, you can get creative with his off days to ensure he’s in the lineup against lefties.

I’ll be excited if the Reds signed O’Neill, but I would also my fingers crossed. Conforto has his own injury past, but O’Neill’s is even more concerning. If O’Neill starts to get five year offers, I’m out. Anything less? Interested.

Teoscar Hernandez – 32 – R/R

2024 Stats: 652 PA, .272/.339/.501, 33 HR, 134 wRC+

Hernandez is the big-ticket name on this list. Outside of a good not great 2023 with Seattle, Hernandez has been around a 130 wRC+ player with 25+ home run power. If no other factors played in, he’d be at the top of my list. Power, consistency over time, and fit all make him a great target.

Hernandez would slot into the middle of the order and take the spot we saw so many different, less impactful bats, try to fill last year. The team could use a veteran, especially one coming off a World Series win.

The question I have is who will the competition be? He’ll be the primary target for several teams and bidding wars are not kind to the Reds. If AAV is not the decider, do you see the Reds giving him the extra year(s) in order to lock him up? I do not personally see it.

Bench Option

Randal Grichuk – 33 – R/R, 279 PA, .291/.348/.528, 13 HR, 139 wRC+

I’ve been on the Grichuk to Cincinnati train for a couple of years now. Known as a lefty mashing platoon bat, Grichuk actually played well against righties last season as well posting a .801 OPS in 91 at bats. He could be a platoon with Fraley and essentially replace Stuart Fairchild.

There’s some give and take there – brings more power and a better bat, but loses some speed and defense. Short-term, one or two-year deal, and shouldn’t cost too much.

Luis Robert Situation

Luis Robert is a name that has been thrown around a lot as the assumption is the White Sox are going to move him. The Reds are a great fit for a few reasons.

His contract – $15 million is ’25, $20 million club options for ’26,’27 – lines up well with the Reds’ contracts and when core players beg bigger pay raises. The Reds could use a super tooled-up center fielder who’s only 27 years old and could be the 1A/1B to Elly.

However, I’m starting to think a deal with the Reds is less and less likely. I often say the Reds need to take some risk, especially as a small market team, and I do think Robert is a risk worth taking.

Where I struggle to see the Reds’ visions aligning with mine is in the trade package. Cincinnati’s system is not as strong or deep as it was a few years back. I think the front office will not want to deal three top prospects from an average system for a player who’s played over 100 games once.

Again, I would do it. Three years of a below-market value deal for a player as talented as Robert does not come around often. Roll the dice. If you are not able to spend the money to sign high-impact players, you have to be willing to spend the prospect capital on one, when it makes sense. I guess we could debate if it makes sense…

Thoughts On Players I Left Off

Alex Verdugo – I think people have a very skewed idea on what Alex Verdugo actually is. Offensively, he has about the same floor as TJ Friedl and is not different enough from Jake Fraley to make it worth the money. I’d prefer internal options over Verdugo.

Joc Pederson – Pederson in Cincinnati is a fit I have always wanted to see. I think the time to make that commitment was last season, and not after one of his best years. He’s going to be rather expensive and I do not see the Reds signing someone who will just play DH. Great platoon player and I’d be thrilled if he signed, but I just do not think it is going to happen.

Max Kepler – An up and down career who could be a sneaky good pick up. A plus defender who had a weird 2024. He did not impact the baseball and his power numbers dropped off drastically. My question is, how much of an upgrade is Kepler over Fraley? Probably a higher ceiling and a better defender, but him and Fraley on the same roster is tough to understand.

Eloy Jimenez – I’d let Jimenez be someone else’s project. DH only, often injured, and not as much power as you’d think. In a different year, sure. But I think the Reds are trying to compete, not find players to flip at the deadline.

Jurickson Profar – Profar is an infectious personality who has had pop up years before. This past season, at age 31, was a career year by a large margin. I’m not comfortable giving multiple years to him. There’s something about San Diego that just seems to fit him and I think he returns to the Padres.

Conclusion

The Reds entire outfield underperformed in 2024. I think some of their options can, and will, improve closer to the expected norm next year. However, external options are still needed. While there are not a ton of options that truly look like a fit, I do think there are enough that they can find one or two to sign.

I should mention that Matt McLain could be an option in the outfield, as well. That should not be plan A or hold the Reds back from making a move. McLain still has to prove he can play a major league caliber outfield, and stay healthy.

Regardless of who they ultimately sign, Cincinnati should be an attractive designation for middle-tier players. A young and talented team, a new and proven manager, and a hitter-friendly ballpark. We’ll see just how much money they are willing to spend.