Five Former Prospects Who Need a Change of Scenery
With the offseason in full swing, let's take a look at some former prospects who need a change of scenery for the 2025 season.
Sometimes, high-level prospects don’t always work out. It’s unfortunate to see your team’s best youngster fly through the minor league, dominating at every step, only to stall out and underperform once they get their shot with the big league squad.
Former first-round draft picks like Joey Bart, Nick Madrigal, Ryan Weathers, and Mickey Moniak introduced themselves to the baseball world as big-time prospects. For them, everything didn’t pan out the way that fans expected it to. Instead of becoming the face of their respective franchise after being selected in the top 10 picks of the draft, they became middling Major Leaguers.
The good news is that sometimes, you only need a change of scenery.
This article will examine the cases of five big leaguers who may benefit from playing for a new team in 2025. With the Winter Meetings right around the corner, trade season is upon us. Look out for these players to potentially be on the move.
*Former Prospect Rankings via FanGraphs
Five Former Top Prospects Who Could Use a Change of Scenery
Brett Baty / 3B / New York Mets / Age: 25
2024 fWAR: 0.5 / Former Prospect Ranking: 19 OVR (2023)
Baty was one of baseball’s top prospects not too long ago. He was selected 12th overall by the Mets as a high schooler, signing for $3.9 million.
The lefty-swinging third baseman really burst onto the scene after his dominant 2022 season in the minors. He posted a 160 wRC+ in 40 games at Double-A, prompting a promotion to Triple-A. Baty wasn’t there for long as he spent just six games in Triple-A before getting called up for his major league debut.
When he got to the show, the then 22-year-old experienced some expected struggles, but those struggles remained. Since then, he’s split his time between Triple-A and the MLB.
In his 602 career major league plate appearances, Baty has slashed a mere .215/.306/.327, good for a 72 wRC+.
The worst news for Baty is how Mark Vientos performed in 2024. As a prospect, Vientos lived in the shadow of Brett Baty. Now, he has cemented himself as a part of the Mets’ future plans. In 111 games in 2024, Vientos hit 27 homers and posted a 133 wRC+. He spend 108 of those games at third base.
To further worsen the situation for Baty, Vientos is currently projected by FanGraphs’ Depth Chart projection model to lead all third basemen in homers in 2025 (34).
The way I see it, the only way that Baty has a future with the Mets is if Pete Alonso chooses to sign with a different team this offseason. The Polar Bear will be a free agent for the first time in his career. His exit from Queens would open up the first base position.
Vientos is not as good defensively at third base as Baty, meaning that hypothetically, if Alonso walks, Baty could have another run with the Mets at third base while Vientos assumes the responsibility of being the everyday first baseman.
It seems unlikely that Alonso will leave the Mets. Therefore, Baty could (and should) be on the trade market this Winter. Baty ranks as the 21st-best third baseman by the Depth Charts model in fWAR. Notable teams that might be in the market for Baty are the Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and Miami Marlins.
Spencer Torkelson / 1B / Detroit Tigers / Age: 25
2024 fWAR: 0.1 / Former Prospect Ranking: 4th OVR (2022)
The former first-overall pick in the 2020 MLB Draft had no trouble progressing through Detroit’s farm system. He was expected to be a fast-moving prospect as Torkelson dominated the 2019 college season.
At Arizona State, Tork posted an OPS North of 1.100 and averaged an exit velocity of 97.6 MPH. He was undoubtedly a stud college bat.
He made his MLB debut in 2022 and got off to a rocky start. However, his full-season results from the following season were much improved. Torkelson was the everyday first baseman in Detroit, playing in 159 games and posting a 108 wRC+. While that wRC+ figure is below average for a first baseman in the majors, he was just 23 years old that season.
2024 was a different story for the former top prospect.
Torkelson was sent down to Triple-A after a miserable start to the 2024 season. He finished the first half of the season with a 71 wRC+ and a sub-.600 OPS.
All in all, he finished the season with a 92 wRC+ in 381 plate appearances, hitting 10 homers in the process. Towards the end of the season, he started to see the ball better and took more walks, which improved his aggregate output.
I believe that a change of scenery for Tork would be a best-case scenario for him. However, I don’t think it would be wise for the Tigers to move on from him quite yet. His value is as low as it has ever been in his young career as of this moment.
On top of that, the first base free agency market could be a tough place to bank on for landing value. Christian Walker would be the best option, assuming Alonso is out of the Tigers’ budget.
If Detroit wants to get creative, a fun option could be to move Jace Jung to first base and make a play for Alex Bregman. The 31-year-old would pair very nicely in a lineup with Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter.
Casey Mize / RHP / Detroit Tigers / Age: 27
2024 fWAR: 1.3 / Former Prospect Ranking: 30th OVR (2021)
From one former Detroit Tigers first overall draft pick, to the next. Mize was selected first overall in the 2018 draft out of Auburn University. After a 2018 season with Auburn that saw the righty post nearly a 32% K-BB rate, he had Tigers fans hoping he’d be the future ace of the franchise.
His career to this point has not panned out that way. Mize has a career 4.36 ERA across 291 innings and has dealt with injuries.
In 2024, Mize posted a 4.49 ERA, 3.95 FIP, and a career-worst strikeout rate of just 17.3%. The good news is that the underlying numbers believe that next year could see improvement for Mize. The righty posted a career-high Stuff+ of 106 and his fastball velocity sat above 95 MPH for the first time in his career.
We’ve seen how successful pitchers can become when their environment changes. Notably from the 2024 season, Chris Sale, Luis Severino, and Sean Manaea were all low-risk, high-reward pickups who paid off.
With youngster Keider Montero and Jackson Jobe looking like they’ll be in the full-time rotation in 2025, the Tigers could opt to move on from Mize and seek a starter in the free agent market. Top-end options that make sense for Detroit are Blake Snell or Jack Flaherty, while more realistic options could be the aforementioned Manaea or Walker Buehler.
Luis Campusano / C / San Diego Padres / Age: 26
2024 fWAR: -0.5 / Former Prospect Ranking: 37 OVR (2022)
Campusano was scouted to bring a set of offensive tools to the catcher position for the San Diego Padres. He graded out as having plus-power potential and after three seasons of splitting time between the big leagues and Triple-A, Campusano got his first full run for the Padres in 2023.
2023 saw the catcher post a 133 wRC+ in 174 trips to the plate. He finished the season slashing .319/.356/.491.
Campusano isn’t the most sound defender behind home plate, but in 2023 when the Padres had Gary Sanchez, they had a good thing going. They could rely on the veteran, Sanchez, for defense and the youngster, Campusano, for offensive production. It was a match made in heaven.
However, 2024 was not as kind to Campusano. The now 26-year-old finished the season in Triple-A after slashing .227/.281/.361.
A total step back.
The biggest concern was his severe dropoff in power output. His slugging percentage floored after his impressive 2023 season. His numbers were down across the board, as he saw his average exit velocity drop, his groundball rate increase, and his pull rate drop.
Perhaps the most concerning thing was his barrel rate dropping from 7.7% in 2023, to 4.6% in 2024.
As it stands today, the Padres are expected to have Campusano in the lineup as the primary catcher. Their backup option is 30-year-old Brett Sullivan. Their top prospect, Ethan Salas, is still too far out to bank on. The 18-year-old has struggled with the bat, although, he’s being aggressively pushed through the minor leagues.
A realistic option for the Padres could be a short-term deal with a veteran backstop until Salas is ready. A remarriage of San Diego and Kyle Higashioka could be in the plans. Another option could be Danny Jansen.
This would open up the possibility of moving on from Campusano and give him the chance to return to his 2023 self elsewhere.
Reid Detmers / LHP / Los Angeles Angels / Age: 25
2024 fWAR: 0.7 / Former Prospect Ranking: 47th OVR (2022)
2024 was a weird year for Detmers. The southpaw got off to a rough start, posting an ERA above 9 in his first 12 starts of the season. This prompted the Angels to send the former top-50 prospect down to Triple-A.
Detmers spent 78 innings worth of baseball in Triple-A, pitching to an unimpressive 5.54 ERA but an above-average K-rate of nearly 30%.
With the Angels, he threw 87.1 innings to the tune of a 6.70 ERA and an MLB-career-high K-rate. Despite his improvements in his swing-and-miss game, Detmers’ Stuff+ was down. After posting an above-average Stuff+ for the first time in his career in 2023 (101), Detmers’ pitch quality regressed to the mean, posting a grade of 95 in 2024.
Barring a move, Detmers will certainly be a part of this rotation in 2025. A move away from the Angels would be an ideal situation for Detmers. He’s proven to be able to carry a Major League workload, posting back-to-back 2+ fWAR seasons in his age 22 and age 23 seasons.
Detmers is still very young, so the 25-year-old has plenty of time to rebound and get back on his feet. The first place I would start is redesigning his primary fastball. In 2024, he threw his four-seamer over 500 times and while the pitch was 94 MPH with above-average vertical break, Stuff models believed it to be well-below-average. The pitch graded out at 86, per Stuff+.
It’s difficult, if not, impossible to find a successful big league pitcher whose primary pitch ranks as being 14% worse than the league average.
Other organizations will see potential in the former top-10 draft pick and be willing to give up something for that arm. If the Angels plan to have him bounce back and forth between the Majors and Triple-A again, I think it would be wise for the Halos to move on from Detmers.
A new opportunity in a new place is exactly what Detmers needs for 2025 to be his bounce-back year.
Written by