Dylan Cease Is the Ace Up the Padres’ Sleeve for the NLDS

Game 1 of the NLDS between the San Diego Padres and Los Angeles Dodgers could be a terrific pitchers’ duel. The Dodgers’ Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) will take the mound against the Padres’ Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.47 ERA). Both pitchers have been excellent this year.

But it’s not supposed to be like this.

With a Game 1 pitching matchup this strong, you wouldn’t know the Padres had already burned two starters in the Wild Card Series: Michael King and Joe Musgrove.

One of the many advantages of earning a first-round bye is getting to use your number one starter in Game 1 of the Division Series. That guarantees your ace will get to make two starts in the series, if necessary.

Meanwhile, teams that have to play in the Wild Card Series are usually forced to start their number three or four starters in Game 1 of the Division Series. That can lead to some wildly uneven pitching matchups.

In this case, however, the Padres will call upon an ace-caliber starter for the third game in a row.

Dylan Cease Has Been an Ace for the Padres

Over the past four seasons, no pitcher in Major League Baseball has made more starts than Dylan Cease. His 891 strikeouts rank first in that time. His 17.2 FanGraphs WAR ranks sixth. He has a 3.52 ERA and a 3.32 FIP. His teams are 74-56 (.569) in his starts.

We’re talking about one of the most talented and reliable starters in the game. This much is clear.

Cease had another excellent season in 2024. He tied for the MLB lead with 33 starts. His 189.1 IP ranked tenth. He also finished among the top 10 qualified pitchers in xERA (3.32), FIP (3.10), and SIERA (3.46).

According to fWAR, only four pitchers in baseball were more valuable: Chris Sale, Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, and Cole Ragans.

Skubal and Ragans started Game 1 of the Wild Card Series for the Tigers and Royals, respectively. Wheeler will start Game 1 of the NLDS for the Phillies. Sale would have started Game 1 of the Wild Card Series for the Braves if he hadn’t gotten hurt.

Meanwhile, consider who will start Game 1 of the LDS for the other Wild Card teams. The Royals are sending Michael Wacha up against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees. The Tigers will send Reese Olson to face Tanner Bibee and the Guardians. The Mets will likely go with Tylor Megill against Wheeler and the Phillies.

Those are all good pitchers – this is the playoffs, after all – but the Yankees, Guardians, and Phillies have a clear advantage. The Dodgers do not.

Dodgers-Padres Pitching Matchups

With Cease and Yamamoto starting Game 1, here’s what the pitching matchups could look like for the rest of the Dodgers-Padres series:

Joe Musgrove’s status for the NLDS is up in the air. He exited early on Wednesday with elbow tightness.

Musgrove would have been in line to start Game 4 of the NLDS. He still might. But even if he can’t, it’s hard not to think the Padres can go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers in every pitching matchup of the series.

Game 2

Jack Flaherty vs. Yu Darvish

Jack Flaherty has been durable, consistent, and excellent in 2024. He averaged more than 5.2 IP per start during the regular season. He set a new career high in strikeout-to-walk ratio. It was his best all-around season since 2019.

Yu Darvish, on the other hand, is no longer at the top of his game. The 38-year-old also missed significant time with injury in 2024. Still, he was solid when called upon, putting up a 3.31 ERA and 3.64 xERA and averaging just over five innings per start.

The Padres could have gone with Michael King on regular rest in Game 2, but they clearly have faith in Darvish to get the job done.

Game 3

Walker Buehler vs. Michael King

The fully healthy version of Walker Buehler we last saw in 2021 would make this another great pitchers’ duel. I can’t say the same about the version we’ve seen in 2024 (5.38 ERA, 4.68 xERA).

Buehler seemed to have turned a corner during his final few starts in September, but there’s no way to argue the Padres don’t have the edge in this one.

Michael King went at least five innings in all but two of his outings dating back to the beginning of May. He put up a 2.42 ERA and 2.56 FIP over 24 starts in that time. He also gave one of the best performances of his career earlier this week in the Wild Card Series, tossing seven scoreless innings and striking out 12.

Game 4

Landon Knack vs. Martín Pérez

Interestingly, this could be another a close matchup. Landon Knack is a rookie with promise and upside. But Martín Pérez is a veteran, and you know what you’re going to get when he takes the mound.

Knack (3.65 ERA, 3.78 xERA) has better numbers this season, but Pérez (4.53 ERA, 5.38 xERA) pitched more regularly and pitched deeper into games. It’s also worth keeping in mind that he put up noticeably better numbers with the Padres post-trade deadline (3.46 ERA in 10 starts).

And, of course, if Musgrove is available for Game 4, the scales will certainly tip in San Diego’s favor.

Game 5

Yoshinobu Yamamoto/Jack Flaherty vs. Dylan Cease

The Dodgers have suggested they could go with either Yamamoto or Flaherty in Game 5. As for the Padres, it’s hard to think they wouldn’t hand the ball back to Cease.

The Dodgers are still the favorites in the NLDS. They finished five games ahead of the Padres in the standings. They outscored the Padres in the regular by 82 runs. Home-field advantage is real, and it will work in the Dodgers’ favor.

But the Padres have momentum. They had a better record in the second half, a better record in September, and they just swept the Braves in the Wild Card Series.

The Padres could pull off an upset. And if they do, their starting rotation, led in this series by Dylan Cease, will be a major reason why.