Did the Giants Make the Right Decision Not to Trade Blake Snell?

Rewinding back to the morning of July 26th, the Giants sit 5.5 GB from a Wild Card spot and their hopes for a divisional title out of the picture. For Giants President of Baseball Operations, Farhan Zaidi, the next four and a half days before the deadline would be critical.

Coming out of the All-Star break, his squad was 2-5 and playing uninspiring baseball after series losses to the Rockies and Dodgers. His fanbase begging for him to be removed from the front office and the rest of the league licking their chops for Blake Snell, Lamonte Wade Jr and Matt Chapman. All signs pointed to selling at the deadline and accepting a failed season.

Some players could receive decent returns such as rumored interests in star third-baseman Matt Chapman and on base machine Lamonte Wade Jr. However, the pretty penny would result from moving former two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Who was hard to watch from March to May posting a 10.47 ERA through five starts.

However when Snell came off the injured list for the second time, the official Snellzilla arrived. Across four starts in July prior to the trade deadline, Snell pitched to a 0.75 ERA. He put an exclamation point on his pre-deadline audition for other teams by becoming the first Giants pitcher since Tim Lincecum to strike out 15 batters in game, exactly 15 years after Lincecum did it.

While the Giants finally celebrated watching a true Blake Snell start, the former Cy Young’s trade stock boomed. A dilemma which if played poorly, could mean Farhan Zaidis’ LinkedIn page would update to “open to network.”

The Giants shopped Snell at the deadline, but when the clock struck 6:00 p.m. EST on Tuesday, July 30th, the left-handed ace would never change hands, keeping him in San Francisco for the rest of the season.

Ultimately, Zaidi did what he’s done at pretty much every deadline since joining the organization in 2018… making moves without swaying one way or the other.

Above proves it’s obvious Zaidi has confidence in this team to make a playoff push surrounding this strong rotation which he also called “the best rotation in baseball.” Trading Snell at the deadline would certainly distinguish that belief.

In his defense, he’s right. Trading Snell would be an aggressive move telling everyone in his clubhouse they’re folding on the season. However, I would argue keeping Snell is just as aggressive. Relying on this deep rotation mixed with potential, accolades, and aces while relying on a young offense to propel you into a wild card spot with your job on the line? I mean talk about confidence.

San Francisco was instantly rewarded for their decision to keep Snell last night, as he completed the first no-hitter of his career, and the first for the Giants since Chris Heston back in 2015.

The night prior, the Giants won a game 1-0 as Logan Webb pitched a shutout against the A’s. It was the first time that two teammates pitched back-to-back complete game shutouts since Adam Wainwright and Shelby Miller back in 2013.

Now only 4.0 GB from a Wild Card spot, winning six of their last seven. Looking forward to their next nine games, the Giants play the Reds, Nationals and Tigers all under .500. Baseball is a long season, so I hate over exaggerating one week but this could be the most important road trip of the Giants season as it could determine if they play October baseball.

The confidence in “The best rotation in baseball” according to Zaidi, relies on a handful of offensive possibilities:

• The veteran Matt Chapman continues to hit (.360/.467/.600 in last 7 games)

• The kids Heliot Ramos, Patrick Bailey and Tyler Fitzgerald continue to rake

• Reinforcements/role players step up: Marco Luciano, Brett Wisely and Michael Conforto

If all of this can come together which according to Fan Graphs is a whopping 11% chance, then yes, Zaidi made the right call to bet on his team and not to trade Blake Snell.

What if the Giants did trade Blake Snell?

This is the world almost every Giants fan wishes they were living in as of today. If the Giants were to shop the left handed ace elsewhere, confirmed talks included Baltimore, San Diego and the Yankees. If it helps, according to Giants insider Alex Pavlovic, who interviewed Zaidi, phone calls were made and received with a focus around trading Snell.

Pavlovic also confirmed with Zaidi that deals hit a roadblock after the Orioles and Padres refused to include their top three prospects in any trade. The Astros were also suitors but discussions went quiet with concerns around Snell’s contract and they eventually acquired Blue Jays lefty Yusei Kikuchi instead.

Snell signed a two-year $62 million dollar contract with the Giants including a player opt-out after this season. If opted in, Snell would be paid $30 million for the next season. Although Snell has been an inconsistent arm this year, if he were to excel the rest of the season it’s likely he would test free agency again giving Scott Boras round two with the market.

Or if Snell went back to his early season numbers, obviously he would opt in forcing his new team to eat his $30 million dollar contract. Teams like the Orioles and Padres have other commitments they need use that $30 million for. Therefore, the risk in trading away their top prospects weren’t worth the trade.

A return from Snell was the real attraction Giants fans were hoping for. Ever since their dynasty run from 2010 to 2014, Giants fans have begged for their next core. This is the first season the Giants are without a single member from any of those championship teams after fan favorite Brandon Crawford signed with St. Louis this offseason.

Since their dynasty, the Giants have developed more busts then booms drafting one of the worst farm systems until recently. Between 2014 and 2019, here are the Giants last six first round picks:

• 2014: Tyler Beede – RHP

• 2015: Phil Bickford – RHP

• 2015: Chris Shaw – OF

• 2017: Heliot Ramos – OF

• 2018: Joey Bart – C

• 2019: Hunter Bishop – OF

All no longer with the team except minor leaguer Hunter Bishop and Heliot Ramos who was the first homegrown Giants outfielder to make an All-Star game appearance since Chili Davis in 1986.

The point being, the Snell trade could have brought a borderline top 15 system into the top 10 and help build a new young core like they did between 2010 and 2014. I can remember watching Brandon Belt, Brandon Crawford, Buster Posey and Pablo Sandoval play for their Single-A affiliate, the San Jose Giants growing up.

They’re at a solid starting point with Patrick Bailey, Hayden Birdsong, Heliot Ramos and Kyle Harrison all 25 years old or younger and playing important roles down the stretch of the season. However, trading for Blake Snell would support the farm which is only two years away from graduating most of their top 10 prospects.

What would you have done if you were Farhan Zaidi? Are you selling Blake Snell and potentially more key pieces in hopes of building a stronger future? Or betting on the short run with a strong rotation and young offense?

I will tell you one thing that is for sure. Watching Snell throw a no-hitter on Friday night, there had to be a few GMs around the game that were kicking themselves for not pushing the chips in for Snell.