A Fully Healthy Brandon Nimmo is Ready to Bounce Back in 2025

After a 2024 that was a tale of two seasons, Brandon Nimmo is one of our picks to bounce back in a big way in 2025.

Brandon Nimmo of the New York Mets up to bat against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field.
MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - SEPTEMBER 19: Brandon Nimmo #9 of the New York Mets up to bat against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on September 19, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

Long considered one of the most underrated players in the game, Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo was viewed as one of the premier center fielders in Major League Baseball as recently as the spring of 2024. Entering 2025, he finds himself on our list of bounce back candidate

Across 601 games played from 2020 through 2023, Nimmo hit .264/.364/.438, with a 127 wRC+, and racked up 17.3 fWAR. With 79 home runs during that span, Nimmo’s average 150-game sample is about 20 home runs per and over four wins per season.

All this equated to an on-base plus slugging (OPS) of .828. His defense also steadily improved from -3 outs above average (OAA) in 2020 (14th percentile), to as high as 6 OAA in 2022 (90th percentile).

Nimmo timed his free agency perfectly coming off that great year on both sides of the ball in 2022, as he hit free agency as the top center fielder on the market. The Mets rewarded Nimmo with an eight-year, $162 million contract, coming off a 5.4 fWAR season.

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In his first season on the new deal, Nimmo hit a career-high 24 home runs with a 130 wRC+ and posted a 4.2 fWAR. The slight dip in WAR was due to grading out less favorably in center field defensively, which resulted in a move into a corner in 2024.

In 2024, Nimmo added a new facet to his game: a perfect 15-for-15 rate on stolen bases, after he had previously said, “I am just not good at stealing bases.”

He also put together the best season of his career in terms of being a run producer, clearing his career-best in RBIs by more than 20 with a 90-RBI season. While the counting stats were there for Nimmo, the rest of his numbers fell off, as he particularly struggled in the second half.

Looking at the full picture of 2024, Nimmo posted the lowest on-base percentage of his career, which dropped his OPS and wRC+ to rates lower than we have seen since his first cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2016.

Will those numbers climb back to their prior rates in 2025, or become the start of a modest decline as Nimmo continues to evolve his game into his 30s? That’s what we are here to find out.

Nimmo’s 2024 Season

While Mets stars Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso struggled in the early season, Nimmo made himself a case for the National League All-Star team with a good first half. Despite a .248 batting average, Nimmo still reached base at a .361 clip, putting up a .815 OPS while slugging 16 home runs and driving in 63 runs. From there, however, it all went downhill.

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Nimmo had not adjusted as well to left field as the Mets would have liked as he posted an OAA in the 50th percentile over the course of the year, his lowest figure since 2020.

At the plate, his season took a hard turn as the over-.800 OPS in the first half became a .596 OPS after the break. This included a period which included a crucial West-coast roadtrip where Nimmo went 7-for-44 (.159) during a stretch where the Mets went 4-8.

The one thing that stood out during Nimmo’s otherwise pedestrian season, was his run production. The Wyoming native launched the second-most home runs of his career with 23 (second to only his 24 in 2023) and again set a career-best with 90 RBI — trumping his previous high-water mark of 68. He also hit .319 with runners in scoring position.

Promising underlying metrics

What looks like a mediocre season on the surface can partially be explained when you consider that it was reported that Nimmo played through plantar fasciitis from May onwards, an issue that was re-aggravated during the National League Division Series.

It is easy to see the direct impact of the injury, especially in the postseason.

Over the NL Wild Card series and first three games of the NLDS, Nimmo hit .304 with a home run and four RBI. He was then reported to feel pain at some point during Game 3, an injury which persisted through the Mets eventual exit in Game 6 of the NLCS.

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After re-injuring his left foot in Game 3 against Philadelphia, Nimmo slashed just .148/.258/.148 in the final seven games of New York’s playoff run.

The outfielder also dealt with a shoulder issue after making a diving catch against the Marlins on Aug. 18 and subsequently taking an awkward swing, sidelining him for just a game.

While he returned to the lineup on Aug. 20, lingering shoulder injury might have contributed to the 3-for-21 stretch that immediately followed his return.

Even with the up-and-down 2024 campaign, Nimmo’s batted ball numbers stayed true. His averaged exit velocity and barrel percentage both jumped from 2023 to 2024 while his hard-hit rate stayed the same.

According to Baseball Savant, his batting run value actually jumped from the 84th percentile to the 91st.

While Nimmo is never one to make excuses, he may have been the victim of some old-fashioned baseball misfortune. While he routinely hit the ball with as much authority as he has in his career, illustrated by his nearly identical hard hit rates in 2023 and 2024, he simply was not rewarded for it as his batting average fell exactly 50 points.

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His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) fell from .301 in the first half of 2024, to .222 in the latter half — both down from his career .322 BABIP while the league average sat at .295.

Moreover, his xwOBA was .335 — 14 points higher than his actual wOBA of .321 — further adding to his overall bad luck. It is clear that Nimmo let contact take a backseat in favor of slugging the baseball, which is evident by the highest first-pitch swing percentage of his career at 32.6%.

This aggression from Nimmo has resulted in more strikeouts. He saw a roughly 2% jump from 2023 to 2024 and has climbed from a 17.2% strikeout rate in 2022 to a 23.8% K rate in 2024.

This is partially due to an uncharacteristic increase in chases.

Long known as one of the most disciplined hitters in the sport, Nimmo’s chase percentage jumped from 19.9% in 2023 to 24.1% in 2024, still below the league average of 28.5%.

While he did swing at a few more balls, his walk percentage still managed to increase from 10.9% in 2023 to 11.6% in 2024, which was in the top 9% of all MLB hitters.

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Nimmo’s 2025 outlook

The outlook on Nimmo going forward is a good one. Entering his age-32 season, Nimmo has shown the ability to continue evolving year over year, as evidence by the climb in both his stolen bases and RBIs last year, despite the dip in his overall offensive production.

If Nimmo has a little more luck with some extra hits falling, stays healthy, and continues to get more comfortable playing in a corner, we could see a real spike in his WAR total compared to last year.

Nimmo spoke about his recovery at Amazin’ Day at Citi Field on Jan. 25. He revealed that he received an injection in his foot immediately after the season ended and is working to ramp up, adding that he has been able to partake in all baseball activities outside of sprinting thus far.

“For me, it’s going really well right now,” Nimmo told reporters. “I think that we have a plan going forward to try and mitigate it as much as possible.”

Nimmo said that he “fully plans” to be ready for the Mets’ season opener on March 27.

While his days of hitting leadoff may be over due to Lindor’s success in that spot, his increased focus on run production and slugging should certainly play a huge impact in a Mets lineup.

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Especially because at the time of writing, the Mets are still awaiting Pete Alonso’s free agency decision. If the Polar Bear does not wind up back in Queens, Nimmo figures to provide newcomer Juan Soto with lineup protection in Carlos Mendoza’s nightly starting nine.

Between the constant nagging injuries and some bad luck for Nimmo, it is best to just chalk up 2024 to a bizarre storm of events that created the outfielder’s worst full season in the big leagues according to OPS+.

A big piece in Nimmo’s success this year will rely on his consistent health. If he can stay injury free for most of the season, look for him to get back to his typical numbers as the Mets look to hunt down an NL East crown.