At this time of the year, selling high on players can make or break your fantasy season. Identifying the right candidates to sell, however, is a tricky task and that’s why we’re going to do it for you here at Just Baseball.
The players identified on the list below are placed there for a variety of different reasons. A few of the players’ value has never been higher and we expect significant regression coming in the second half while a few others’ name value might be at its pinnacle. With that being said, here are six hitters who we’ve identified as sell-high candidates.
Joey Wendle – INF – Tampa Bay Rays
Wendle has been a key piece for a Tampa Bay offense that ranks fourth in MLB in runs scored. His .281/.346/.465 slash-line gives the appearance of a well-rounded bat whose eligibility at SS, 2B, and 3B only adds to the package.
Hidden under these base stats are metrics that don’t inspire confidence going forward. His average exit velocity, hard hit%, xOBA, xSLG, and BB% all rank in the 25th percentile or below among qualified regulars. Also thrown into the equation is the arrival of Wander Franco, which should bump Wendle down in the lineup where he’ll see fewer RBI and R opportunities and could potentially limit his playing time. Now’s the time to sell high on Wendle who could potentially get you a decent, innings-eating starter or a back-end bullpen piece.
Adolis Garcia – OF – Texas Rangers
Garcia has absolutely mashed for Texas in 2021. His .867 OPS is certainly impressive, however, it’s his 20 homers that has really turned heads. While the batted ball metrics look good, there are some major red flags under the hood.
Garcia currently ranks in the eighth percentile in chase rate while ranking in the 11th percentile in Whiff% and ninth percentile in K%. He’s up there hacking. While this approach has certainly worked for players in the past, his swing and miss concerns are coupled with an inability to hit offspeed (.182 BA) and breaking pitches (.236 BA). He’s currently seeing fastballs 53.8% of the time, a number that will come crashing down, considering he’s hitting 341 with a 674 slugging percentage against all types of heat. Expect Garcia to get spun to death moving forward without much help in a Texas offense that ranks 21st in MLB in runs scored.
Buster Posey – C – San Francisco Giants
Salvador Perez – C – Kansas City Royals
Let me start this by saying that these two players are two of the greatest catchers of their generation and their placement on this list has everything to do with their age and nothing to do with any metrics that scream ‘Sell!’. Both players are on the wrong side of 30 and play the most demanding position in sports.
While I don’t believe either player will crash and burn, the mileage on their bodies suggest that the bulk of their 2021 production is already behind them. Catchers who hit are an absolute commodity in fantasy baseball in today’s game, however, if you can get a high quality bat or arm for an aging catcher, now is the time to pull the trigger.
Randy Arozarena – OF – Tampa Bay Rays
What happened to the version of Randy Arozarena that made playoff pitchers look like little leaguers? While that guy hasn’t shown up, Arozarena has produced at a well above average rate with a 120 OPS+ in 2021.
With the taste of his otherworldly playoffs still on many owner’s lips, now is the time to sell. His extreme swing and miss concerns (sixth percentile in Whiff%) coupled with the general streakiness at the plate, and high BABIP (.346), lead me to believe that he’s due for some significant regression in the second half.
Target fantasy owners who still believe Arozarena is on the cusp of a breakout and go get yourself an established star with less risk.
Yoan Moncada – 3B – Chicago White Sox
The former number one overall prospect has long tantalized fantasy baseball owners because of his potential to contribute with his power, speed, and average. Moncada’s vast potential finally turned into production in his breakout 2019 which saw him produce a gaudy .315/.367/.548 slash-line while adding 25 homers and 10 bags.
The main reason for the breakout was a change in approach at the plate that saw him become far more aggressive, swinging at 47.3% of all pitches, a huge jump from the 41.1% from the year before. Well, passive Moncada is back in full force, swinging at a career-low 40.3% of pitches. His flashy .403 OBP keeps his trade value high, but without a change back to his 2019 approach, the slugging will remain low and limits his fantasy impact. Moncada’s name value alone should be enough to obtain a sizable return. Cash in now.