Fantasy Baseball Buy Low and Sell High Targets: Late April 2024
Finding value in trades only increases your chances of winning a title.
Anyone who invests in the stock market knows the old adage of ‘buy low, sell high.’ The same holds true when testing the trade waters in fantasy baseball. If you can’t find anything worth enjoying on the waiver wire, exchanging assets with other teams is another way to go.
A big part of seeking value is simply asking owners how they feel about their players. Nobody wants to trade their solid performers, but most would love to get rid of their slow starters without having to drop them. People don’t want to trash someone they drafted high. It never hurts to simply ask how an owner feels about certain players you have an eye on. And then you can strike.
Let’s take a look at three players who have struggled so far yet have brighter days ahead. Then, we’ll get into some who are overachieving and would be better off elsewhere.
Enjoy the value game!
Buy Low
Kevin Gausman
Gausman hasn’t had the smoothest beginning to 2024, but by no means should we take away his ace title.
When fantasy managers look at a pitcher who started the season 0-3, their minds will go wild. So, if you are going to get the Blue Jays ace at any point this season, the time is now. The splitter king had a solid start against the Royals last week and followed it up with an even better outing against the Dodgers on Sunday, finally earning his first win and lowering his ERA to 4.50.
Gausman still refuses to issue walks, and batters are still hunting what he’s offering with a 33.0% chase rate. He has also been getting more grounders lately, which is a step in the right direction.
The guy is only 33 and too many are quickly dismissing him. Just last season, he put up a 3.16 ERA along with a 2.97 FIP and an AL-leading 237 strikeouts. The reigning third-place finisher in Cy Young Award voting deserves more respect, and I think fantasy general managers should look into buying while his price is still affordable.
Christopher Morel
Anyone who has read my past work knows I love these power/speed guys. The bummer here is that Craig Counsell is simply not letting his runners steal when they get on base. I have a feeling that could change for the better, even though it’s been a slow start for stolen bases on the North Side of Chicago.
Morel is still hitting the ball hard, and although he is in a mini-slump at the moment, now is the time to strike.
His expected batting average is .266, even though his actual batting average is well below that mark. He is still crushing the ball, and his plate discipline has gotten better too – he’s walking more often this season. That is a huge development for Morel, who struck out 31.0% of the time last year.
His three home runs are underwhelming, but don’t forget the incredible streaks he went on last season. His 26 home runs in 107 games was impressive.
What’s more, Morel just picked up third base eligibility on top of his outfield presence. Go and get him because I can almost guarantee his owners are open to talking.
Parker Meadows
Remember just one month ago when Meadows homered four times and stole three bases while hitting .358 over 20 spring training games?
Unfortunately, springtime is in the rearview mirror at this point, but his spring performance tells us that the potential is there. Even though Meadows only has six hits in 26 games this season, he still has two homers and three stolen bases. His average needs some work, but as you know, average only counts for one category. Power and speed make up multiple areas, which can be more valuable in the long run.
One thing about young guys trying to get a feel for the majors is that it can be hard to get into a rhythm if you are not playing every day. Not playing against lefties and hitting lower in the lineup because of his slow start might be making things difficult for Meadows.
He has done fine against lefties in the minor leagues, which gives me hope for more playing time down the road and the possibility that he will regain his leadoff spot in the order. This young Detroit Tigers team is young and hungry, so I would invest in Meadows before the true breakout happens.
Sell High
Ryan McMahon
The popular hitter choice to sell high is Taylor Ward. Sure, I can see the case for that considering his career high in home runs is just 23. He’s also 30 years old and playing in a mediocre lineup with a below-average back-of-the-baseball card. However, Ward’s Statcast numbers support his performance. That’s simply not the case with McMahon.
McMahon is hitting .308, while his expected batting average hovers around .254. He is chasing more, and he is also whiffing at a staggering amount of pitches.
Furthermore, it’s not just his Statcast page that raises my eyebrow, it’s his career as a whole. I mean are we really trusting a guy who has never hit more than 24 homers in a season? In the friendly air of Coors Field? I see him as a .240 stick with a bit of power and no speed. Ship him off while you still can.
Cristian Javier
Pitchers finding success even though they walk the world will always be confusing to me. It was Blake Snell last year, and before Javier got hurt, he was issuing free passes at an 11.6% pace this year.
I don’t think I’ll ever be able to trust guys who don’t mind walking opposing batters. I remember having Javier rostered on my team in 2023 and every single game was so stressful to watch with absolutely no flow. He would fall behind in almost every count, which only made me grow angrier as the game went on.
Do not forget Javier’s final line in 2023: a 4.26 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. His 8.8 strikeouts per nine innings was down compared to his breakout 2022 season, in which he sat at 11.7 K/9. I don’t think he’s anywhere close to what he showed that year.
Javier is close to coming back from his injury and is expected to pitch again in early May. So far in 2024, he’s found success, but I still don’t trust the underlying numbers. His five walks in his second start of the season reminded me too much of last year, and the strikeouts just haven’t been there. Save yourself the stress of watching Javier fall behind batters and let another owner in your league worry about that.
Tanner Bibee
A popular prediction back during draft season was that Gavin Williams would outperform his teammate on the Cleveland staff. Unfortunately, we haven’t been able to see Williams due to injury, but I still support that prediction.
Bibee helped me win a dynasty championship last season, so it pains me to write this, but it’s the truth. I don’t think Bibee performs like he did in 2023, and I think the league is onto him.
Before his dominant outing against the Braves on Saturday, Bibee owned a 4.44 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. What made him so special last year was his low walk rate and all the soft contact he induced. His strikeout rate is up this season, but so are his walk and barrel rates.
It’s also worth mentioning that he has already made two starts against the Athletics, one against the White Sox, and one against the struggling Twins. Those squads aren’t exactly setting the standard for offense in the league these days. His performance against Atlanta was promising, but is it a sign of more good things to come?
Because it’s early, you can still use his 2023 season as leverage for a high price in return, especially in dynasty leagues. I did just that in my own dynasty league and would advise the same for anyone who doesn’t have confidence in this Guardians hurler.