Yesterday was wild. Unfortunately, we came up short 0.25 units. It’s no big deal, but it could have been a fantastic day.

We lost on the Royals team total, even though they won the game. That wasn’t a bad beat, but it’s a bad read, and I’ll wear that. The Luis Severino outs prop hurt, as his live outs line was -700 to the under in the fourth inning. The Mets kept him out there after they got a big lead.

However, we wrote almost all the wrongs with a big win on the Padres run line at +145. That got us close to breaking even, but today, we win.

All of these picks are on BetMGM. Use Promo Code: JUSTBASEBALL for a first bet offer up to $1500 in bonus bets if you lose your first wager.

Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros @ 2:30 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tyler Holton (2.19 ERA) vs. Hunter Brown (3.49 ERA)

There is something about those Gritty Tigs, and I want in.

The Tigers match up better against Hunter Brown than they did against Framber Valdez. The Tigers haven’t been hitting lefties all year, but they have been crushing righties during this hot streak. On the flip side, I think a Tigers bullpen game could be nearly as effective as Tarik Skubal going six innings and then handing it off to the bullpen.

What makes the Tigers so dangerous is they can mix and match better than almost any team in the playoffs. Kerry Carpenter is either the best hitter on the team or second to Riley Greene, and he didn’t even start against Framber Valdez. Riley Greene has a .873 OPS against right-handed pitching but a .698 OPS against lefties. Colt Keith gets inserted back in the starting lineup, who is 3-5 against Brown in his career.

Brown has pitched well against the Tigers this year, but again, Framber did as well, tossing seven innings while allowing two runs.

In September, against right-handed pitching, the Tigers rank ninth in baseball with a 107 wRC+. Houston is at a 101 wRC+ against right-handed pitching in September. Houston has been getting a lot of their offensive production against left-handed pitching, and while we will see a lefty opener, he’s likely to go at most an inning. AJ Hinch knows this, and I have faith he’ll deploy his lefties in the right spot against the team he used to manage.

The Tigers bullpen threw 141 innings in September, the most of any team, and they have the third-best ERA at 2.41. They brought up Jackson Jobe, the number one pitching prospect in baseball, to shoulder the load if need be. They have Reese Olson, who’s been slowly working himself back and, before he got hurt, was putting up an excellent season. Even a pitcher like Keider Montero has a 3.77 ERA in September. The pitching staff is on another level right now, and they have the best manager in baseball behind it against the team he used to manage.

I think the Tigers put on a bullpen clinic, and it’ll be up to them to put up enough runs against Hunter Brown. Brown was one of the best in baseball in the second half, but so was Framber, and the Tigers have been a lot better against righties.

The standard narrative is that the Astros have to bounce back, but since they changed the playoff format, teams like the Tigers are 7-1 in game two after winning game one. The Tigers are playing with house money and nothing to lose while the Astros sit with all the pressure. At this price, we have to be in Detroit. I would be in Detroit regardless of my World Series future in Houston.

The Pick: Detroit Tigers ML (+165) Risk 1 Unit

Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres @ 8:30 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Max Fried (3.25 ERA) vs. Joe Musgrove (3.88 ERA)

We took the Padres on the run line yesterday because of how bad the Braves’ spot was. While they get another day to recoup, the Padres still have many advantages. The money line has become much cheaper, as the difference between AJSS and Max Fried is massive. However, just because Fried is a lot better than AJSS doesn’t mean the Braves now inch this close to San Diego’s talent level.

The Padres don’t have every advantage in this game like they did in the last one, but they still hold more than the Braves.

Max Fried is a better pitcher than Joe Musgrove, but he’s pitching on short rest. He was incredibly dominant in his last start, going 8.2 innings while only allowing three hits against the Royals on September 27th. Now he turns around to face the Padres on four days rest to save the season.

Fried also doesn’t have an excellent track record in the playoffs. He has plenty of experience, appearing in 19 games and starting 11. He’s pitched to a 4.57 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP in 65 innings.

The Padres have seen Fried already this season, and they roughed him up for three runs on nine hits in 4.1 innings. I talked about this yesterday on the Just Baseball Show, with how bad the Braves offense looks right now, they will need an elite performance from Fried to win this game. I’m betting against that. I can’t back a pitcher on short rest, who has already gotten hit around by the team he’s facing, and without an excellent track record in the playoffs.

Max Fried ended the season strongly, posting a 2.14 ERA in September. On the flip side, Joe Musgrove also decided to end the year, putting up a 2.51 ERA. Musgrove has made three postseason starts in his career, tossing 18.2 innings. He’s posted a 2.89 ERA with 18 strikeouts.

The Padres lesser split is against left-handed pitching, posting a 98 wRC+ at home against lefties this season. This is hypothetically a better matchup for Atlanta to get a win here, but the Braves still fall short on offense when compared to the Padres, posting a 94 wRC+ against righties on the road. I still give the Padres the advantage on offense today.

The bullpen advantage also leans towards San Diego. Both bullpens have been elite, and I like the Braves more when everyone is rested. Every reliever on their roster has gotten work in the past two days, and the only relievers the Padres have used over the past two days are the guys we saw last night. The Braves’ talent level is slightly higher, but the Padres are much fresher. I’ll take the fresher arm with somewhat less talent any day of the week.

We talked about this yesterday; the Padres also do the little things better than Atlanta. They are the better baserunning team, and they play better defense. Even if everything else was the same, I’d give the Padres home field advantage and a slight bump on the line because of it. That’s why I had to jump on this price, which tells me that the starting pitching matchup and offense are a wash today. I disagree, I think the Padres hold small advantages throughout, which should make all the difference here. I would take the Padres to -130.

The Pick: Padres ML (-120) Risk 1.2 Units