Free entertainment yesterday!

Yesterday, we went 1-1 (+0U) on our picks. We clicked buttons, watched sports, and broke even. We narrowly hit on Ben Lively under 4.5 strikeouts (thank you for taking him out at 80 pitches). We did lose on the White Sox team total over. They had a few chances to drive runs in, but they ultimately got shut out.

Let’s do better today with these two picks. I have another player prop and a total worth looking into.

2025 Record: 14-4 (+9.27 Units)

You can find all of my picks on BetMGM. For new users, use code JUSTBASEBALL for a first-bet offer up to $1500 if your first pick loses.

San Diego Padres vs. Athletics @ 3:35 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Padres: Randy Vasquez (1.69 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in 10.2 Innings)

Athletics: Osvaldo Bido (2.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP in 10 Innings)

This has gotten out of control.

The Cubs and A’s played a three-game set at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento. Every single game went over the total. This is the third and final game of a three-game set against the Padres, and the first two games have exceeded the total. That’s five straight overs, and now BetMGM has adjusted the line too far.

The total in the first two games was 8.5, granted with better pitching matchups. However, the Padres will likely be missing three of their stars, and both bullpens are in good spots to come in and put up zeros after the starters exit.

This is my model’s favorite total of the season so far.

I’m not making it a two-unit play because this park might be an automatic over, but I’m not buying that, and I am willing to wager against it.

Let’s talk about injuries first. Jackson Merrill (202 wRC+) was just put on the IL, didn’t play yesterday, and won’t be available for this one. Fernando Tatis Jr (175 wRC+) will likely be out of the lineup with a shoulder issue. He exited yesterday’s game after two at-bats.

Here’s what manager Mike Schidlt had to say about his injury: “Checking out medically, everything seems to be intact and good shape and strength good, and he’s not overly concerned. So we err on the side of caution tonight, and we’ll evaluate it.”

Jake Cronenworth (159 wRC+) hit a ground ball to second base in the third inning of yesterday’s ballgame and barely made it out of the box before bending over in pain. He’s a tough guy. He might play today, but I can’t imagine he’ll be 100%.

After the game, Mike Schildt has this to say: “Jake, some more cramping from two days ago from getting hit in the ribs and it just cramped up on him. … Again, not overly concerned.”

Schildt may not be concerned, but it didn’t look good. Regardless, this is not the Padres offense we are used to. If Cronenworth doesn’t play, the Padres will be without their three best hitters.

The A’s have a solid pitching plan today. Osvaldo Bido limits hard contact and keeps the ball off the barrel, ranking in the 70th percentile in both metrics. He pitched to a 2.72 xERA last season due to having the second-lowest Hard-Hit rate among all pitchers, both in the bullpen and the rotation. He’s a solid arm, and with the Padres’ lineup more barren than it has been all season, I expect him to keep it to three runs or below in his outing.

After Bido exits, the As have their high-leverage relievers ready to go. They have an off-day tomorrow, so we will undoubtedly see Mason Miller, who has yet to pitch in this series. We should also see Justin Sterner, who only threw 14 pitches yesterday, and his last outing was on Saturday. He has not allowed a run this season and is striking out batters at an elite 13.50 K/9. Tyler Ferguson is the same story. He’s been fantastic so far and only threw 15 pitches yesterday.

I feel confident enough in the A’s pitching plan to recommend Padres Team Total Under 4.5 at a plus number, but I’d rather sweat out the whole game because the Padres’ bullpen is also in a good spot with an off-day tomorrow.

Randy Vasquez is a five-starter. Sometimes, he can surprise you with a shutout, and other days, he looks like a five-starter. I will credit him; he worked on a lot this offseason, as his pitch mix seems completely different. He cut his four-seam fastball usage in half and utilized his cutter more, producing solid results. Vasquez has thrown his sweeper a lot more than usual as well. Similar to Bido, he’s been excellent at limiting hard contact.

After Vasquez exits, the Padres have most of their high-leverage arms ready to go, which ranks number two in ERA as a bullpen. Adrian Morejon, Robert Suarez, Jeremiah Estrada, and Jason Adam didn’t throw yesterday after losing 10-4, but we should see them today. Those are the four best relievers on the Padres and some of the best in the game, all with an ERA at 1.42 or lower.

Every A’s home game has gone over, but it’s not always because of the A’s offense. They have a 107 wRC+ against righties this year, which is above average, but barely, as they rank 13th. In that Cubs series, Chicago outscored them 35-9.

I don’t think they should have moved the total higher than nine, so I see a full run of value at ten, which we don’t often see when getting a -105 price. I have a tough time believing we see six straight overs. I would take this down to 9.5 (-110).

Player Prop #1

Jake Irvin is not off to a good start this season, posting a 5.40 ERA in ten innings with five strikeouts. He routinely opened at 5.5 strikeouts per game to start the year, as his average game last year ended with five strikeouts. However, he’s been under that line twice in a row, and now he gets a date with the Dodgers.

4.5 strikeouts is a line he was over in 52% of his starts last season, averaging five strikeouts per game. However, as the season continued, he took a downturn, going under this line in seven of his previous 11 starts.

Jake Irvin’s 5.40 ERA doesn’t tell the whole story about how ineffective he has been in his two starts this season. His 11.64 xERA is egregious, and his 5.13 SIERA says he deserves every run he’s allowed.

Everything is down, including his velocity. His fastball averaged 94 MPH last season, but now it’s 92.8 MPH. His curveball is nearly down 3 MPH, and the RPMs on the pitch are also down, so hitters have an elite .408 xwOBA against the pitch, his most-used offering.

Last season, he was under 4.5 strikeouts in seven of 13 home starts, a 54% hit rate. It makes sense that strikeouts in Nationals Park would be harder to come by. This season, they rank as the fourth hardest stadium to rack up strikeouts per Baseball Savant’s Park Factor. In 2024, it ranked as the second-worst park to strike hitters out.

The Dodgers saw him twice last year. Irvin faced them in LA, striking out six. He then faced them in Washington, and Irvin only struck out three hitters. The current Dodgers lineup has 62 PA against Irvin, and the numbers aren’t good for the Nationals’ right-hander.

They are hitting .333 with a xwOBA and a 14.5% strikeout rate. Every player, even bench bats, has faced him, and only four have ever struck out against him in those 62 PA.

I project Jake Irvin for 4.0 strikeouts, the same projection as Ben Lively yesterday. This gives us a 60% chance of going under 4.5 strikeouts. At +100, this is 100% worth a unit, and I would take it up to -130.

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