It was a truly embarrassing performance from me yesterday.

I took the under in the Red Sox and Rays game. That was lost in the third inning, but I gave up in the second as everyone with eyeballs could see that Tanner Houck didn’t have it. He got destroyed, and the Rays put up 16 runs.

I took Dustin May under 5.5 strikeouts, which was also lost early in the game. He mowed down Rockies hitters with ease. That marked five straight losses after an incredible heater to start the season. We are still in the green, and all it takes is one good day to get back on another heater.

2025 Record: 15-11 (+4.27 Units)

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Detroit Tigers vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup:

Tigers: Jack Flahrety (1.62 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 16.2 Innings)

Brewers: Quinn Priester (1.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 5 Innings)

Jack Flahrety is off to a great start, but the velocity drop I’ve seen will eventually bite him. The Brewers have excellent numbers against him; this offense will break out sooner or later. I smell a perfect storm brewing, and we get it at a plus number, and if it’s tied through five innings, we get our money back.

I’m willing to play Milwaukee to the end, but because of the uncertainty surrounding rookie Quinn Priester, we get ten more cents on the first five innings ML. That shows the most value in this game because I project most of Milwaukee’s runs against Jack Flahrety.

Flahrety slowed down during the second half of last season, pitching to a 3.90 FIP compared to a 3.18 FIP in the first half. His walk rate nearly doubled, and his strikeout rate fell five percent. For a pitcher of his caliber, it was interesting that he could only grab a two-year deal worth $35M. Some teams, including the Dodgers, saw the writing on the wall that he would eventually take a step back if he’s only averaging 92 MPH with the fastball.

We’ve already seen that trend, as his fastball averaged 93.7 MPH in his first start and then below 92.5 MPH in his next two starts. His fastball and slider have seen great results so far, but I don’t expect that to continue, as both pitchers have an xwOBA above .340 to start the season. His knuckle curve is still a great pitch, and he is an above-average pitcher. The issue is that he’s being priced near ace levels, and I don’t expect that to continue.

This is the spot where I expect a slight fall-off. Flahrety threw once in Milwaukee last season, allowing three earned runs through five innings. Brewers’ bats have seen Flahrety plenty of times with success. They are only hitting .235, but the contact quality is excellent: .384 xwOBA with a .527 xSLG. Among pitchers with at least 50 PA against a current roster today, those are the worst numbers on the board.

Milwaukee has blown two straight leads and got blown out yesterday. They are 8-9 to start the year, but the problem hasn’t been the offense, sitting with a 107 wRC+ and the fourth-highest Hard-Hit rate this season. The Tigers have gotten off to an impressive start against right-handed pitching with a 126 wRC+, but I expect it to fall back to earth a bit soon. They are rocking the fourth-highest batting average on balls in play and rank 22nd in Hard-Hit rate.

The Quinn Priester trade shocked the baseball world; the Brewers gave up an excellent prospect and a high draft pick for him. He made his debut in Coors Field, and while he didn’t light up the radar gun, he performed in the best hitting environment in the sport. The Rockies are a garbage offense, but still, that’s a challenging spot for your first start in 2025.

I trust the Brewers’ ability to identify pitching, and Priester will likely be a name I’m targeting throughout the season. He keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate, and his walk rate in 2024 was just six percent. He throws strikes, and he’s difficult to square up, and the Brewers will continue to tweak his pitch mix. With no experience against him, I see the Tigers struggling after putting up a nine spot yesterday.

Due to the uncertainty surrounding Priester, I’m limiting this play to a half-unit wager. This is a fade of Flahrety in this spot, and considering we get a push if it’s tied, the first five moneyline is the way to go. I would take this down to +105.

Player Prop #1

Mitch Keller’s name routinely pops up among above-average starters in baseball, and respectfully, I’m not sold he’s earned that placement. Keller consistently eats innings, which is rare among starters these days. His availability and ability to turn in an incredible start occasionally keep him in those conversations. After his best start of the season against St. Louis, I’m fading him.

With a fresh arm on Opening Day, Mitch Keller threw six innings while allowing five hits against the Marlins. In his second start, he got bludgeoned by the Yankees for eight hits and seven earned runs in less than four innings. In his most recent start, he threw 7.1 innings, only allowing four hits without a run.

Mitch Keller is a volume pitcher. When he takes the mound, he’s expected to go at least six innings in every start to spare the bullpen. He gives up many hits, gets strikeouts, walks people; he does it all. Due to this, his WHIP has always been high, and his xERA has been above 4.18 in every season outside of his rookie year. He’s not consistent in production, but he is in volume. He’s like Aaron Nola if he had worse stuff and less command.

Ultimately, this leads to more hits. He finished sixth last year among all pitchers in hits allowed, but only Patrick Corbin, Miles Mikolas, and Chris Bassitt threw fewer than 180 innings among the bottom ten pitchers. Keller allowed over one hit per inning, which has been a trend throughout his career.

It makes sense that he would have allowed over 5.5 hits in six of his last ten starts. In 2024, he allowed six hits or more in 19 of his 31 starts, a 61% hit rate. Over his last 17 home starts, he’s been over 5.5 hits in ten, a 59% hit rate.

He faced the Nationals twice last season, averaging 7.5 hits allowed and exceeding this number in both starts. In his first start, he allowed eight hits and five earned runs. In his second, he allowed seven hits and two earned runs. We don’t need those hits turning into runs; we need consistent contact.

The Nationals’ current roster has done just that against Keller. In 67 PA against the Nationals’ current roster, Washington is hitting .310 with a .328 xwOBA and a .413 xSLG. Six Nationals bats have hit at least .333 against Keller in their careers.

Washington has been slightly above average against right-handed pitching this season with a 104 weighted runs created per game plus, and he even gave Paul Skenes a few problems yesterday. After facing Skenes, Keller is a much easier matchup. They don’t have to deal with 98 MPH fastballs and 94 MPH splinkers. They get a 94 MPH fastball, and all five of his most-used pitches have a .360 xwOBA or higher against.

Even though the Pirates won 10-3 yesterday, they still used three of their better relief pitchers. Unless Keller gets destroyed (which is good for us), we should have plenty of chances to get here. I project him for six hits allowed, giving us a 60% chance of hitting this over. I would take his over 5.5 hits allowed to -120.