I love playoff baseball so much. We had a fantastic day yesterday, going 2-0, worth 2.65 units.

Yesterday, we took the Tigers’ money line (+165) against the Astros. The Tigers got a lead, gave it up, and then came roaring back to win, courtesy of Andy Ibanez. We took the Padres’ money line (-120) yesterday, and it was 5-0 by the second inning. That was a much different game, as we had to sweat out the Braves’ offense because the Padres didn’t score again, but thankfully, they still won.

Today, we dive into game three between the Brewers and the Mets.

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New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers @ 7:08 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jose Quintana (3.75 ERA) vs. Tobias Myers (3.00 ERA)

Since Major League Baseball adopted the best-of-three wild card format in 2022, teams that win game one have won 11 straight series. Going into this year, teams that won the first game were 8-0 in the series, and we saw three of the teams sweep yesterday. The Mets were the lone team that won game one but lost game two. If history repeats itself, the Mets should win this game.

We had different picks to win when Jack and I discussed this game last night on the Just Baseball Show. We talked about how razor-thin the margins are between these two teams, and it should be anyone’s ballgame. Jack went with the Brewers, and I went with the Mets, but we both agreed this game was 50/50. When I saw the Mets were the underdog and +110, I knew where I was putting my money.

What do you value in a pitcher regarding a winner-take-all game? Do you prefer Tobias Myers, the younger pitcher with a better track record this season, or the grizzly veteran who won’t let the moment get too big for him?

Tobias Myers is making his first-ever postseason start, while Quintana has four under his belt and has pitched to a 3.86 ERA. Myers is the better arm at this point, but experience is helpful. Overall, the pitching matchup is a wash; they’ll likely both give up a few runs before handing it off to the bullpen.

Here’s the thing: as much as I love the Brewers’ offense, what they’ve shown in this series does not feel sustainable. Most of their production has come from the 20-year-old budding superstar Jackson Chourio. The other runs have come from an RBI single, a bases-loaded hit by pitch, a fielder’s choice, a sac fly, and Garrett Mitchell’s big-time home run. Jackson Chourio has supplied the rest. If I’m the Mets, what’s the reason to pitch to him?

On the flip side, the Mets put up eight runs in a total team effort in game one. Then, in game two, they could not hit with RISP, and it ultimately did them in. Without late-game heroics, the Mets could have swept this Brewers team while not playing their best game yesterday.

While watching the first two games of this series, I feel the Mets offense is deeper, while the Brewers have gotten a historic performance from one player. The Mets’ MVP candidate, Francisco Lindor, has yet to make an impact at the plate, and the Mets have scored 11 runs in two games. It’s hard for me to imagine that he doesn’t get a big hit in this game.

The Brewers’ bullpen is more talented than the Mets’, but the Mets have enough to go to war with this Milwaukee bullpen. Edwin Diaz put in work during the series against the Braves, but after two days off and added adrenaline, he’ll be throwing fuel. Jose Butto can go multiple innings, and he’s fantastic. Ryne Stanek has flashed elite stuff and has been a proven playoff performer. David Peterson will be available out of the bullpen as well. The Mets have enough arms that I’m confident in.

The Brewers were so fantastic in the regular season because they did the little things. The bullpen was elite; they were well coached, played excellent defense, ran the bases well, and they can definitely hit the baseball.

However, I have yet to see much of that in this series. The offense has been centered mostly around one player, the defense has been a bit sloppy, and the Mets proved in game one they can hit this bullpen. Alvarez has been fantastic at stopping the Brewers on the bases with his 1.92 pop time. The Brewers are 0-1 in the stolen base department through two games, something you don’t often see, and that’s a testament to Francisco Alvarez.

All in all, you can’t convince me this game shouldn’t be -110 on both sides. If the Mets are +100 or better, they are my pick to win this game and move on to the NLDS.

The Pick: New York Mets ML (+110) Risk 1 Unit