Yesterday stunk. The Phillies offense never gave us a chance—plenty of runners left in scoring positions and some putrid at-bats. The Braves won 3-1, and we lost our Phillies ML wager.

If we aren’t going to win, at least learn something. I feel that I have after watching last night’s game, and we are going right back to Atlanta for Wednesday’s play of the day.

2024 Record: 102-108 (-10.16 U)

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Aaron Nola (3.45 ERA) vs. Max Fried (3.62 ERA)

Neither offense did anything last night. The Braves scored one of their runs off a four-walk performance from Jose Alvarado. Whit Merrifield likely won’t have a double and a triple tonight, and outside of Ozuna, I don’t have much faith in the Braves’ offense. On that note, the Phillies offense could not have looked worse, and I don’t see that changing much tonight. All this leads us towards the under, as we meet outstanding pitchers and bullpens on the mound.

Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler have similar numbers against the Braves. Both pitchers have a lengthy track record of success, whether they are the red-hot Braves of 2023 or the current 2024 Braves lineup that’s been gutted by injuries.

Through 289 PA against the Braves’ current roster, Nola has posted a .234 batting average against, a .291 xwOBA, and a 29.1% strikeout rate. Newcomers Jorge Soler and Gio Urshela have yet to hit Nola, combining 7-29 (.241) with seven strikeouts and only one extra-base hit.

This year, Nola has struggled against the Braves, which makes me think he’s due for an excellent start. His first start of the year against them was a disaster, allowing six earned runs in 4.1 innings. He rebounded in his second start, throwing six innings of three-run ball.

In that start, he allowed two home runs, which produced all three of those runs. Those were hit by Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies, two hitters who won’t be in the lineup today.

That game ended 8-6, and Max Fried got blown up for 11 hits and five runs over six innings. Fried’s numbers against the Phillies are not good, as they are rocking a .383 xwOBA against him, but I have faith that Fried can turn the corner and give the Braves a good start.

You can go one of two ways with Fried in this matchup. You either believe he continues to struggle and gets hit by a team he’s struggled against before, or he rises to the occasion in a game where the Braves need him to perform and makes the proper adjustment to carve through this Phillies lineup. Based on what I saw yesterday and my respect for Freid, I’m going with the latter.

Fried’s season numbers are still really solid. His 3.63 ERA is solid, and his underlying metrics align with that ERA. He has to have at least one good start against his division rival. At home against a Phillies team that doesn’t look good right now feels the spot to do it.

I also love the way the bullpens are set up. Thankfully, Jose Alvarado won’t pitch after throwing 34 pitches and walking four yesterday. We will likely see the three best arms the Phillies have: Jeff Hoffman, Matt Strahm, and Carlos Estevez. For the Braves, we have Dylan Lee (1.85 ERA), Aaron Bummer (3.63 ERA), Pierce Johnson (3.40 ERA), and both Iglesias and Jimenez could go again if needed. I see very few runs being scored late.

I’m confident Nola will give us a classic six-inning, two-run performance. His numbers against the Braves’ current roster are elite, and in the past two months, he’s posted an ERA in the mid-threes. It’s up to Fried. We should stay under if he can give us a quality start (six innings while allowing three runs).

On top of it all, we have 8 MPH wind blowing in for this game with average temperatures. Truist Park is a hitters’ park, but the conditions could be better for hitters today. It’s not a huge difference, but it’s worth mentioning that the wind should not be blowing out. Braves’ home unders have been a cash cow this year, especially lately. The under has hit in 18 of the last 25 Braves’ home games.

I’m projecting five runs from the starters and two runs allowed by the bullpens. I’m confident enough in this under to take it down to 7.5 at +100.

The Pick: Under 8 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.