MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Tuesday, August 20, 2024
It was a nice hit on the under yesterday, but I made some mistakes while handicapping yesterday’s play. From my research, it seemed that Freddie Freeman would be out with an injured finger, but he ended up playing. I also should have mentioned that Max Muncy and Tommy Edman would be back in the lineup. That’s on me; it slipped my mind that they would return.
While the play hit, I apologize for the wrong information. Sometimes, my information is rock-solid, and we lose the pick. Sometimes, it’s the other way around, like last night. I pride myself on giving you the best research possible behind every pick, but I didn’t do that last night. Thankfully, it was a no-sweat winner.
Today, we are going to Atlanta to battle division rivals. I can’t wait to watch this game. Let’s go for three straight winners.
2024 Record: 102-107 (-8.91 U)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler (2.72 ERA) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (2.06 ERA)
I posted this on Twitter last night, highlighting the injury woes for the Braves this season. As soon as they take a step forward, someone else goes on the IL.
It’s not fair; baseball isn’t fair. Michael Harris returned to the team, and then they took three of four from the Giants and two of three from the Angels. Unfortunately, then Austin Riley hit the shelf for 6-8 weeks with a fractured hand after a pitch hit him. It’s a fluke injury in a rough season for Atlanta.
Austin Riley’s absence hurts them long-term, but it’s especially prevalent for Tuesday’s matchup. Wheeler had dominated the Braves at every turn, even when they were dominant last season. Last season, when they were at their best, he threw 19 innings at a 3.32 ERA with 21 strikeouts and a .186 opponent batting average.
Through 260 PA (an enormous sample) against the Braves’ current roster, Wheeler is rocking a 29.6% strikeout rate, a .226 opponent batting average, a .269 xwOBA, and a .343 xSLG. Those stats include Austin Riley, who is 11-46 with five doubles and a home run against Wheeler. He has the second-highest xwOBA on the team against Wheeler, and he’s posted a .850 OPS this month in general. He was swinging the bat well, and he’s been the primary guy against Wheeler in the past.
I don’t have to convince you that Zack Wheeler is fantastic. He has a 2.72 ERA with a 2.96 xERA and one of baseball’s best K-BB ratios. He’s terrific, and his prior history of the Braves gives me confidence he can come in and roll against this Braves offense with an 88 wRC+ over the last week against righties.
Facing off against this Phillies lineup is Reynaldo Lopez. This line makes sense if Lopez was at fulll strength, but I’m not so sure of that. He’s making his first start off the IL in about three weeks, as he exited his start on July 28th with forearm tightness. Thankfully it wasn’t something worse, and he made a rehab start to prepare for this outing.
The rehab start didn’t go well. Granted, he did face the Norfolk Tide, the Triple-A affiliate for the Orioles, which is stacked, but it is still a minor-league lineup. He threw 71 pitches in that start, allowing six hits and three earned runs with four strikeouts and one walk. Now he faces the Phillies, who want to spoil the Braves’ postseason chances.
Lopez’s regular season numbers on the surface are phenomenal, but when you look under the hood, there is reason for concern. Among EVERY starting pitcher in baseball, he has the most significant discrepancy between his actual ERA (2.06) and his xERA (4.40).
Statcast’s xERA expects him to regress because he’s below average in all the metrics they care about. His Hard-Hit and walk rates are below average, and his strikeout rates are slightly above average. A pitcher’s job is to limit hard contact and walks while racking up strikeouts. He’s also posted a 95 Stuff+ this year, which is below the league average. For reference, Wheeler is at 105.
Both pitchers threw six-inning shutouts against these lineups this season. However, Wheeler has a long track record of dominance, while Lopez does not. I have more faith in Wheeler, especially with Lopez’s recent arm troubles.
With the off-day, both bullpens are rested, and both have elite high-level arms. I give the Braves the advantage regarding arm talent, but the Phillies are just a little behind, and I prefer the Phillies offense by a decent margin. I’ll always take the better offense through the entire game.
I laid the juice on the Phillies last night. I would play 1.25 Units up to -135, or you can pivot to the first five run-line instead. Regardless, it’s a good idea to back the Phillies today in some way in my opinion.
The Pick: Phillies ML (-125) Risk 1.25 Units
These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.
Written by
Peter is the Co-Founder and Director of Content Strategy of Justbaseball.com and the Co-Host of the Just Baseball Show.