Profit was achieved yesterday. We had an early stinker with Aaron Nola’s strikeout prop at +110. I wouldn’t call it a bad beat, but it went down to the wire. He finished with six strikeouts, and he potentially could have gone longer, but he had three walks, the first time he’s done so since May 19th.

We awaited the evening matchup between the Royals and Diamondbacks. It started off horribly, with both teams getting runners on in the first, but both ended in double plays. It was that kind of game, we had seven runs scored in the first four innings even though no team had a hit with runners in scoring position. It was 4-3 in the ninth inning, but then both teams decided to go nuclear, and the total soared. Baseball, am I right?

We return to the well today with an excellent buy-low and sell-high opportunity.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 88-90 (-6.56 U)

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets @ 7:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Chris Sale (2.70 ERA) vs. Luis Severino (3.58 ERA)

There is a solid group of good pitchers in this league. Then, there are about ten elite pitchers in the game right now. Then, there are the “unfadeables,” the elite of the elite. Chris Sale is firmly in the latter, and he has the opportunity to strengthen his case for CY Young in game one of a divisional matchup. Not only am I trusting Sale, but this is an excellent “buy low, sell high” spot.

The Mets come into this game on a high; they just beat the crap out of the New York Yankees, a series in which they’ve won all four times they’ve played them. They demolished them in front of America on ESPN yesterday, and it has to be getting many people excited about them, especially as we inch towards the deadline.

The Braves are limping after the All-Star break, going 1-4 with plenty of rainouts. I don’t bet on doubleheaders because games often get weird, which happened to Atlanta. They took two of three from the Padres before the break, but after they got postponed, split a doubleheader, and lost the last game. They got shut down by Hunter Greene, then postponed again, and then had to spot-start Allan Winans, who never gave them a shot.

The word is that Atlanta is struggling, and the Mets are hot. That’s being priced in here, but it’s now way overpriced.

In this game, the Braves have a better starter and a better bullpen. They’ll have the pitching advantage throughout, and this Braves lineup has excellent numbers against Luis Severino.

Luis Severino faced the Braves in Citi Field back on May 12th. He threw five innings of two-run ball, which is fine. Beyond that start, it rarely goes well for Severino against the Braves. Through 63 PA against the Braves’ current roster, they have a .415 xwOBA with a .295 xBA. That is the highest xwOBA for any pitcher on the slate with at least 50 PA against their opponent. Which means the quality of contact against Severino is loud.

The Braves offense is projected to get Austin Riley back from the paternity list. His wife just gave birth, so maybe he has some dad strength to unleash. But on a serious note, he is 1-5 against Severino, so there is little to draw from there. Regardless, adding him to the lineup certainly helps. If he doesn’t play, it’s not a huge deal and wouldn’t keep me from backing Atlanta.

Sale has some strange numbers against the Mets over his career. They haven’t faced this electric version this season, but over 123 PA against the Mets’ current roster, he’s rocking a .257 xBA and a .315 xwOBA. So, regarding the expected quality of contact, he dominates Severino. In terms of batting average, Sale is at .322. Not great, but it’s been weaker contact, and they have not seen him this year.

When comparing these pitchers using our best ERA predictors, there is a nearly two-run difference in SIERA. Sale has a 2.67 SIERA, the third-best in baseball. Severino sits at 4.50, the 12th worst in all of baseball among qualified pitchers. FIP, xFIP, xERA, and K-BB ratios tell a similar story. This matchup isn’t close, yet it’s priced that way.

Chris Sale last pitched in 11 days ago. I overlooked that with an older pitcher like Lance Lynn and won’t repeat this mistake. Chris Sale has been pitching in this league since 2010; I can’t imagine he’s “rusty” after a prolonged stretch. His arm should be in excellent shape, which usually means the Braves win. The Braves have struggled this year, but not when Sale pitches. He is 13-3, and the Braves are 13-5 over his 18 starts. The Mets are 10-9 in Luis Severino starts.

The silver lining in losing and dealing with rainouts is your bullpen can rest up. The Braves have as good of a bullpen as any team in baseball, and the four best, Minter, Iglesias, Johnson, and Jimenez, have yet to pitch since Sunday or Monday. Aaron Bummer (3.31 ERA) and Dylan Lee (1.98 ERA) should be available.

The Mets bullpen is less than rested. Not a single arm has thrown 17 pitches or more in the last three days. We should see Jose Butto, who I like, but the rest is up in the air. I wouldn’t want to back the 17th-ranked bullpen by ERA, which isn’t in a good rest spot. We should see Edwin Diaz if the Mets have a lead, but he can blow a save, with five already this season.

The Mets have the better bats but a much tougher matchup. This is still the Atlanta Braves we are talking about, a tier above the Mets. I don’t give the Mets much of a home-field advantage, as they are 27-22 on the road with a higher Team OPS than at home, where they are 26-26. I have a thing about not betting against streaks, but I wouldn’t call splitting with the Marlins and sticking it to the Yankees over two games a “streak.”

We have yet to back the Braves much this season due to their offensive woes, but they should win this one. It’s a lopsided pitching matchup, and the Braves have great numbers against Severino. The Mets are overvalued after sticking it to the Yankees. Back the road team in this one to -130.

The Pick: Braves ML (-115) Risk 1.15 U