Our two-unit play was a success! We are 2-0 on two-unit plays this season. Thank you Phillies.

It would have been a much better day if the Padres didn’t get shut out. I honestly couldn’t believe what I watched when they came to the plate. The amount of 95 MPH ground-outs and line-outs with bad ABs raised my blood pressure.

Profit if profit and we’ll take it every time. Let’s try to keep it moving with an afternoon pick.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 79-86 (-10.26 U)

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 2:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Paul Skenes (2.12 ERA) vs. Aaron Civale (5.18 ERA)

This should be a close and competitive game. While Aaron Civale’s season has not gone according to plan, he has a pretty easy matchup that he’s succeeded in before. Paul Skenes should succeed today with his high velocity (we’ll talk about why that’s important), and the bullpens are in a great spot to close the door. All of this lines up for an under.

Fine, I’ll say it. Paul Skenes is as good as any pitcher alive right now. Look at how the books are pricing him. He and the Pirates are road favorites in this spot after a 9-0 loss. He gets massive respect from the books, and for good reason.

We see the 102 MPH fastball, but his 94 MPH splinker is the best pitch in baseball by run value. His slider is an elite offering, but what stands out to me is the ground-ball rate. His ability to keep the ball on the ground at a 48.6% rate is very impressive, considering the high velocity. Pitchers who work up in the zone like that are susceptible to the long ball, and while he’s allowed seven home runs this year, I don’t think the Brewers are the team to take advantage.

The Brewers’ offense has been struggling when they face high velocity. On 98 MPH and above pitches, the Brewers rank 25th in xwOBA with the third-highest whiff rate. On pitches 99 MPH and above, that xwOBA drops further, and the whiff rate climbs to 42.9%, the second highest in the league. On pitches 100 MPH and above, they drop to a .189 xwOBA, the tenth worst in the league.

Nobody throws harder than Paul Skenes. He’s also been unbelievable in his road starts, rocking a 1.11 ERA over 24.1 innings against the Braves, Cardinals, Tigers, and Cubs. They are not elite offenses, but only the Tigers are worse against high velocity.

Milwaukee is not firing on only some cylinders against righties like they were. The wRC+ has dropped to 105 over the last two weeks, the same over the previous month. That’s around the league average. Quinn Preister just came in and threw six innings of one-run ball against them.

Paul Skenes is priced to go six innings (17.5 PO juiced -160 Over) and allow two runs (1.5 ER line juiced -150 to over). That makes sense to me, and if he can do that, we should be in business. I think he has the upside to outperform that, but we’ll go with that stat line for a total price.

Aaron Civale is scary to back with a total this low, but he has succeeded against the Pirates, and his pitch mix has given this team trouble.

The Pirates have put up a 110 wRC+ in the last two weeks against righties. They should compete here, but I don’t see a ton of scoring, and neither do the books. Civale is priced to go under his 2.5 earned run line even though he has a 5.18 ERA and allowed four runs in his last start.

However, there were things to like in that last start. He struck out eight Dodgers just using four pitches; sinker, cutter, curveball, sweeper. Against that mix from right-handers, the Pirates rank 19th in xwOBA with a bottom ten whiff rate.

That’s why I’m unsurprised to see their moderate struggles against him. Through 62 PA, he’s rocking a .254 batting average, a .326 xwOBA, and a 24.2% strikeout rate. Those are all above-average numbers.

Five innings, two runs. That’s all we need from Civale to set up this one nicely. He can accomplish that today based on the matchup at hand.

The bullpen situation is perfect on both sides. Both games have been blowouts so far, so neither team has used their quality arms. We know how good the Brewers bullpen is, ranking as one of the league’s best, and everyone is available so that they can mix and match at will.

The Pirates don’t have an outstanding bullpen overall, but I like their key arms. Colin Holderman (1.93 ERA) is fantastic, and Carmen Mlodzinski has an impressive arm and a 3.42 ERA. Aroldis Chapman is not my favorite pitcher but I do like him when he has plenty of rest (last threw on Monday). They also have Kyle Nicolas (4.00 ERA) if needed. All of those pitchers I named average at least 96 MPH, so the Brewers will be seeing fuel all game, something they’ve struggled with.

I project four runs from the starters and three runs from the bullpens. This would be a unit play if I could grab 8 when it opened, but it dropped too fast. 7.5 doesn’t provide much breathing room, but after two straight overs and fully rested bullpens, I’ll rock with 7.5 down to -115.

The Pick: Pirates vs Brewers Under 7.5 (-105) Risk 0.75 Units