MLB Picks Today, Best Bets, Predictions for Saturday, July 13, 2024
The Diamondbacks! They took a 2-0 lead before surrendering it in the sixth inning. They added two more runs to make it 4-2; we were in deep trouble. However, with runners on second and third, Alek Thomas came up clutch to tie it up. We moved to the ninth inning, and watched Arizona win it on a sac fly. Such an electric game, and a much needed win.
That’s three straight winning days, let’s make it a fourth. I have a total I’m looking at as well as a prop worth the price.
These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500
2024 Record: 81-86 (-8.55 U)
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers @ 4:10 PM EST
Pitching Matchup: Mitchell Parker (3.44 ERA) vs. Dallas Keuchel (4.61 ERA)
I woke up this morning feeling that Keuchel was getting lit up today. It would make absolutely zero sense that the Nationals, of all teams, would be the team to get to Keuchel after he threw a four-inning shutout against the Dodgers, which is precisely why they will. When I looked into the game, I realized that Mitchell Parker’s matchup is troublesome, and the Nationals bullpen isn’t rested or good. This feels like an over.
Let’s talk about Mitchell Parker before we dive into Keuchel. The Nationals left-hander is stepping into a challenging situation. The Brewers are 24-16 after losses this season, averaging 4.9 runs per game. They also average 4.97 runs per game at home versus 4.53 on the road, with an OPS 30 points higher. Generally speaking, the Brewers are excellent in bounce-back spots.
They’ll bounce back against Mitchell Parker and a below-average bullpen. The Brewers are seeing lefties well at the moment. They have a 137 wRC+ over the previous two weeks with a slash line of .302/.365/.475 for a .840 OPS.
The books account for this. Parker has a 16.5 Pitching Outs line, and a 2.5 earned runs line juiced towards the over. He’s been over that outs line in eight of ten starts, and he’s coming off a one-run performance over seven innings. Parker is also due for some regression, as both his xERA and SIERA are over four. He’s a fine pitcher, but he’s facing a Brewers lineup that tends to bounce back, and they are seeing lefties exceptionally well lately.
After Parker exits, we should see runs continue from Milwaukee. Kyle Finnegan (closer) and Hunter Harvey (set up) are not likely to pitch after throwing back-to-back games. Derek Law and Dylan Floro have thrown two of the last three games. Outside of those four arms, this bullpen cannot be trusted. I don’t see how the Nationals hold it down today.
Admittingly, I’m going off feel here. The Nationals are not an elite offense against lefties, ranking 27th in wRC+ over the previous two weeks and 25th over the last month. Over the entire season, this is the second-worst offense against lefties in the league.
Is it weird that I think the worst offense is ultimately Keuchel’s undoing? He allowed seven runs in nine innings over two starts against two offenses that rank in the bottom ten against lefties this year in the Rangers and Rockies. Then, he shut out the number one offense against lefties in the Dodgers. These are major league hitters; any team can crush him.
The tightrope he walked in his last start was insane. He threw 4.1 innings and walked five batters without giving up a run. He had a 6.46 FIP, 5.45 xERA, and 5.64 SIERA. He’s arguably the worst pitcher in the game, and while the Nationals aren’t good against lefties, this isn’t an average left-hander.
He’s projected to go under five innings, and I see 3-4 runs in his future. From there, we get a Brewers bullpen that is definitely solid, and I’m not exactly fading. With the way I project this game, they’ll have to throw a four-inning shutout for this total to stay under. They will likely not have either lefty today, as Hudson and Milner have both thrown a lot of pitches over the last two days.
The Nationals offense is red-hot right now against right-handed pitching, putting up a 125 wRC+ over the last two weeks, ranking fourth in the league. They can get a run or two against this bullpen.
Both starters have three runs or more in their futures, and the Nationals bullpen has two or three of their own. We add 1-2 runs against the Brewers bullpen, and we are over nine runs comfortably. I project six runs from the starters and four runs from the bullpen. That puts us at ten, so with a total of nine at +100, I have to play it. Take this to 9 at -115 or better.
The Pick: Nationals vs. Brewers Over 9 (+100) Risk 1 Unit
Player Prop
Dylan Cease Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100) Risk 0.5 Units
I was interested in backing the Padres today on the ML, but I can’t back their offense right now. They are in their classic Padres melt mode, where they put up the worst ABs you’ve ever seen. The reason to back the Padres today is Dylan Cease. I’m backing the talented right-hander to rack up strikeouts today.
This shouldn’t be a plus number. Dylan Cease has exceeded 7.5 strikeouts in 6 straight games at home (8.7 strikeouts/game average). The last time he went under this line at home was April 27th against the Phillies. He’s a strikeout artist, and the Braves are rocking a 24.9% strikeout rate, the third highest in the league over the last 30 days. So why is it a plus number?
It’s worth noting that Cease’s previous game against the Braves was on May 20th in Atlanta, where he allowed five earned runs in four innings and only struck out five. However, it’s important to remember that the Braves lineup has since evolved. The lineup on that day included Ronald Acuna Jr and Michael Harris, two players known for their low strikeout rates and success against Cease. This is not the same Braves lineup that Cease faced in the past.
Over the last two weeks, the Braves have been striking out even more. The strikeout rate against righties is over 25%, ranking fifth highest in the league.
The Braves have the third-highest whiff rate in the league against right-handers with a four-seam, knuckle curve, slider, and curveball mix. That 29.1% whiff rate only trails the Rockies and the Marlins. He went over this number twice against the Rockies in two starts.
Despite Cease’s previous games against the Braves, it’s important to remember that this is not the same Braves lineup he’s faced in the past. With the Braves’ current high strikeout rate and Cease’s strong performance at home, there’s a good chance that he exceeds the eight strikeouts mark. This betting opportunity should be more favorable, but it’s not. Therefore, it’s a good decision to back Cease to record eight strikeouts or more at -110 or better.