Yesterday’s pick was a real loser. I took Shota Imanaga under 17.5 pitching outs at a plus number, and it wasn’t even close. He dismantled this Diamondbacks team, tossing seven innings and rocking a no-hitter through four innings. I thought it had sneaky value, but it didn’t. That’s on me.

Luckily, we go again today. The beauty of baseball is that there is always tomorrow. Let’s win it back and then some with these two picks.

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500

2024 Record: 85-88 (-7.64 U)

Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians @ 6:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Tarik Skubal (2.41 ERA) vs. Carlos Carrasco (5.02 ERA)

This game brings a tear to my eye. My two loves, Tarik Skubal and the Cleveland Guardians, face off today. You’d think it would have happened with them in the same division by now, but nope, this is the year’s first matchup. It’s an excellent time for Skubal to face them; the Guardians’ offense has cooled while the Tigers’ offense is heating up. The pitching matchup isn’t even on the same planet, and while the Guardians indeed hold the bullpen advantage, the Tigers should be more significant favorites here.

The Guardians’ offense is slowing down. Before the All-Star break, they weren’t hitting, but they scored seven runs the day after the break. I was intrigued, thinking they were getting back to where they were. Then, they got blanked in two straight games, albeit against excellent pitching. They have to face an even better pitcher today, and one they have little experience against.

Let’s quantify those statements. Since July began, the Guardians rank 20th in wRC+ at 88, 12% below the league average. When the Guardians click, they can hit lefties, but Skubal isn’t any old left-hander. It’s way worse against righties, rocking a 75 wRC+ since July 1.

They did score seven runs in game one against the Padres, but six of the seven runs came off relievers with ERA’s over five. They got diced up by Matt Waldron, Dylan Cease, and Michael King. As long as the Tigers don’t throw the legit bottom of their bullpen, I don’t have much faith in this Guardians offense right now, and not against a rested Skubal.

The Tigers get Carlos Carrasco at a good time, seeing the ball well offensively. While the Guardians rank 29th in wRC+ against righties, the Tigers rank sixth at 125, 25% above the league average. They scored four runs against Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman, and they hit around Kikuchi as well.

Carrasco is pitching relatively well, posting a 3.94 ERA over three starts in July. He’s better than his 5.02 ERA indicates but can’t hold a candle to Tarik Skubal. Even if the offenses looked the same, the Tigers would have a clear advantage early. That’s not the case. The Tigers’ offense is trending up, while the Guardians’ are going in the opposite direction.

The Guardians hold a clear bullpen advantage, and that’s priced in. The Tigers are big favorites through the first five, but the full-game money line gets much tighter. The Tigers will have Jason Foley (3.38 ERA), Andrew Chafin (3.55 ERA), and potentially Tyler Holton (3.17 ERA). They also have Shelby Miller (5.08 ERA) available. Hopefully, he’s not the guy to spark the Guardians’ offense.

The Tigers have enough in the backend to make me confident in this wager. The bullpen advantage is overpriced, given how good the Tigers’ bats look. I would take the Tigers to -135.

The Pick: Tigers ML (-120) Risk 1.2 Units

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ranger Suarez (2.76 ERA) vs. Bailey Ober (4.14 ERA)

The first thought that hit my brain when looking at this game was the over. Something is up with Ranger Suarez, and the Phillies should tap into some power against Ober. The bullpens are solid but not in ideal rest spots. I think this total is too low at a critical number of eight.

When Ranger Suarez is on a heater, you do not fade him. When he’s looking like he is right now, you ride the train in the right matchup. He has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last four starts, and it hasn’t really mattered what competition he’s faced. He’s been crushed by the Marlins, A’s, Braves, and Tigers.

As you can see from the chart above, this Twins lineup is perfectly fine with left-handed pitching. Losing Correa is a big blow to this offense, but with the way Buxton is hitting (1.113 OPS Last 30 Games), he has slotted in as the heavy hitter in the lineup.

In a limited sample, Brooks Lee has stepped up and is hitting .300 against lefties in Royce Lewis’ absence. Ryan Jeffers, Carlos Santana, Willi Castro, and Manuel Margot all prefer hitting against lefties. These are a lot of excellent bats that Ranger will have to deal with.

I’m worried about Suarez. He made the All-Star team but elected to miss it due to back spasms. He said he intended to pitch in the All-Star game, but the Phillies wanted to rest him up. That’s who Ranger is—he’s a bulldog. He’s not coming out of the game if he isn’t gravely injured. If he’s not 100%, I think he struggles today against an excellent Twins lineup.

Backing the Twins as underdogs is a good bet, but I don’t like how the Twins bullpen lines up, and I can already see Ober allowing a home run or two against this Phillies lineup. Everyone is back; Realmuto, Harper, and Schwarber have all returned from injury, so this is the Phillies at full strength.

The Phillies have been so banged up, so it doesn’t make a ton of sense to look at recent numbers. What we do know is that they scored 14 runs in the past three games against the Pirates and put up 16 runs in three games against the A’s before the break.

As you can see from the chart above, the Phillies offense is not one to mess with. Facing off against righties who throw four-seamers, changeups, cutters, and sliders, the Phillies rank seventh in xwOBA.

The Phillies love elevating the baseball, and Ober doesn’t do a good job keeping the ball on the ground. He’s in the seventh percentile in ground-ball rate, which doesn’t bode well for the weather forecast.

Target Field is a good spot for hitters today. The wind is blowing out slightly, and temperatures are in the mid-80s. It will be hot at Target Field, which hits a profitable system. When the total is between 7 and 8.5 and the temperature is between 76 and 93 degrees, the over is 93-72 for a 6.7% ROI, with 11.1 units being made in that time. We already saw what the run environment looked like against Milwaukee; the balls were flying.

The Twins have used Alcala and Jax on back-to-back days, so we get the bottom of the Twins bullpen. Duran will come in if it’s a save situation, so if we haven’t hit the over yet, it’s likely time to say goodnight. After Ober, the innings will be filled with relievers that I’ve been a victim of many blow-ups. Complete confidence in the Phillies late.

The Phillies bullpen is in a decent spot; they have Kerkering and Hoffman ready. However, if Ranger struggles, we’ll get to the bottom of the bullpen with Alvarado and Strahm being used lately.

I feel confident in these offenses and the run environment, but I’m worried about both starters. Factor in less-than-ideal bullpen spots, and we have an over. I’m betting it flat because my history of betting overs could be better, so I want to put that out there. However, I feel good about this one. Make sure to get it at 8; 8.5 would lower my risk.

The Pick: Twins vs. Phillies Over 8 (-115) Risk 1 Unit