I’m back to writing daily articles! We just finished up our NL Central tour and I’m finally back at home and I’m ready to roll.

Our last wager was the under in Oakland between the A’s and the Dodgers. It was 2-0 in the seventh, then 4-0 in the eighth, and then the Dodgers put up six runs in the top of the ninth. Brutal way to lose, but honestly, it’s been that way for most of the year. That can be the difference in the season; when the margins are close, how did we do?

The number of bad beats is staggering this season, but there is nothing else you can do but try to make the right plays. I hope the variance will flip to our side eventually.

I found a play I love today and increased it to a 1.5-unit wager. We’ve been solid this year when we increased the unit size. The last time we did so was when the Padres were on the ML, and they won by seven runs. Let’s do it again as we travel to Texas.

2024 Record: 93-98 (-8.43 U)

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers @ 8:05 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Hunter Brown (4.11 ERA) vs. Andrew Heaney (4.12 ERA)

Let’s start by excluding one of the pitchers in this matchup. Andrew Heaney has always been a tough pitcher to cap for me. He has solid numbers against the Astros with over 200+ PA, and Houston has been league-average against lefties since the All-Star break. They are coming off three straight against the Rays, where they struggled to score, so I’m not totally sure how to cap them right now. I feel confident about the Rangers side, so we’ll isolate that side of the game.

I like Hunter Brown. He has the potential to be a number two starter in this league, but he’s been very inconsistent. He flashes excellent stuff, but it rarely comes in a spot like this. He’s struggled on the road this season, and the Rangers seem to have his number.

The Rangers offense got a boost with Josh Jung coming back. They desperately needed it as this offense has been underwhelming all year. This is the spot where they typically score runs for multiple reasons.

This Rangers offense has a .721 OPS at home and a 97 wRC+ versus a .661 OPS and 84 wRC+ on the road. They also show up against Houston. They’ve played them ten times this season, averaging 5.1 runs per game. They’ve been over their team total in six of those ten games this season. They’ve played them four times at home this year, averaging 5.75 runs per game.

They’ve faced Hunter Brown more than a few times. Over 123 PA against the Rangers’ current roster, they have a .296 opponent batting average, a .371 xwOBA, a .494 xSLG, and a .323 xBA. To put that in perspective, players like Francisco Lindor, Jurickson Profar, Mookie Betts, Salvador Perez, and Bryce Harper have an xwOBA between .368 and .376. The quality of contact against Brown is fantastic for Texas. They also only strike out against him at a 20.8% rate, which is 5% lower than his average.

The middle of Texas’ lineup should do a lot of the damage. Marcus Semien is 11-16 with a .559 xwOBA; I recommend backing him in some way today. If Semien isn’t leading the charge, it could be Corey Seager, 5-13, with a .424 xwOBA. Adolis Garcia and Josh Smith are a combined 6-19. I hope Wyatt is back today after missing a few games; he has a .413 xwOBA against Brown. If he isn’t in the lineup, it’s not a huge deal, but I want him in there.

Brown has a 7.00 ERA against the Rangers this season over two starts. He’s allowed seven earned runs over nine innings. In Texas on April 5th, he allowed five earned runs in three innings. In Houston, where he’s been better all year, he allowed two runs over six innings. Last year, it was the same story; he allowed ten hits and three runs in Texas over four innings and pitched much better at home. Even in the playoffs in Arlington, he allowed one run in two innings.

Houston’s bullpen beyond Brown has mainly been mediocre. Since the All-Star break, they have been ninth in ERA, 23rd in FIP, 22nd in xFIP, and 20th in K-BB ratio. That ERA is due to inflate, and while they have solid arms, the Rangers are a team that’s seen them plenty.

We could hit this quickly against Hunter Brown; I would not be surprised to see him allow four runs himself. Even if I project him at two runs allowed through six innings, the Rangers can score two against this Astros bullpen. Texas has proven they can put up four runs or more in this spot, and I think they do it again.

The Pick: Rangers Team Total Over 3.5 (-120) Risk 1.5 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500