The Rangers! What a game. Tyler Mahle’s velocity was considerably down, and I was nervous when the Twins took a 3-0 lead. It looked as if the Twins would continue to score at will, but the Rangers bullpen did an excellent job keeping the score within striking distance. The seventh inning started and the Rangers went crazy, scoring five to give them the lead.

However, Carlos Santana came up in the ninth and tied the game. We went into extras, and the Rangers won it at the very end. Wild game, and thankfully we came away with the win.

Hopefully, today’s pick will have the same result without the stress. Let’s rock.

2024 Record: 101-107 (-9.91 U)

Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Dodgers @ 10:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Bryan Woo (2.06 ERA) vs. Gavin Stone (3.63 ERA)

We must downgrade the Dodgers’ offense now that they are without Freddie Freeman. He should only be out for the next few days. The Dodgers ‘ offense struggles today without the big-time lefty, especially against Bryan Woo. However, Gavin Stone and the Dodgers bullpen should be fine with this Mariners’ offense. Seattle is coming off a ten-run game, so we have to fade them now. All of this lines up for a lower-scoring game.

Bryan Woo has been nothing short of fantastic this season. His 2.06 ERA clearly says that, but his underlying metrics indicate continued success. His 2.23 xERA is in the 99th percentile among all pitchers in Major League Baseball. He is rocking the best xERA of any starter in baseball, and the only pitchers in front of him are Kirby Yates and Mason Miller, two lockdown closers.

His xERA is so low due to one of the lowest Hard-Hit rates in the league combined with a 2.5% walk rate, which also sits in the 99th percentile. He’s throwing strikes and getting weak contact. There’s not much else you can ask from a starting pitcher.

Bryan Woo is not considered one of the best pitchers in baseball because he’s often injured, and he needs to have a track record of eating innings. But he’s healthy now and has gone six innings or more in three straight starts. I have yet to see Woo look better than he is right now, and behind him is a rested bullpen after a recent series with the Pirates.

I wouldn’t call the Mariners bullpen elite by any stretch, but they can limit damage when rested. Andres Munoz (1.35 ERA) and Yimi Garcia (3.26 ERA) haven’t pitched since Thursday, and Colin Snyder (1.08 ERA) will also be available. The rest of the bullpen is mediocre, but I don’t see them allowing enough runs to make a real difference.

The Dodgers offense with Freddie Freeman has been mediocre, ranking 11th in wRC+ (111) against righties and 82 wRC+ against lefties. Bryan Woo’s only issue is facing left-handed hitting, and with Freddie out, that’s a significant loss for the Dodgers offense both early and late. Ohtani should get him based on the matchup, but he is hitting only .174 in August. I see the Dodger’s offense struggling today with so many right-handed bats that play into Woo’s strength (.417 OPS vs. RHH).

The Dodgers will roll out Gavin Stone. He’s not on Woo’s level this year, but he’s solid, with a 3.63 ERA and average underlying ERA predictors. He’s not some dominant pitcher, but he shouldn’t have much trouble with this Mariners offense.

Even though they scored ten runs yesterday off right-handed pitching, they are still below league average in wRC+ against righties over the last two weeks. Gavin Stone should be able to go five or six innings while allowing two runs. The Mariners are also the second-worst team in baseball against right-handed changeups by xwOBA, which is Stone’s most-used pitch.

Beyond Stone is a better bullpen than the Mariners’. This Dodgers bullpen has been in the top five of almost every metric since June 1. Overall this season, they rank seventh in bullpen ERA and third in WHIP. They are also in a decent rest spot.

Neither team has faced these starters before, and both had to travel for this game without an off day. I expect both teams to be sluggish offensively early, and when the bullpens come in, that continues as both teams will be facing solid arms all game.

The weather impact on this game is minimal. It’ll be a nice day, but there will be no real wind. The weather shouldn’t be much of a factor tonight.

I’m projecting four runs allowed by the starters and three from the bullpens. I expect this game to finish with a 4-3 score, so I’d take this down to 8 (+100) or 8.5 at (-120).

The Pick: Mariners vs Dodgers Under 8.5 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units