I am trying to figure out what to say about yesterday’s loss on the Nationals ML (+110). The game started at 12:05 PM EST and ended at 5:45 PM EST. We sat through multiple rain delays and late-inning heroics coupled with four errors by Washington. Gut-wrenching.

Today, I’m targeting three teams to bring the bats. Well, it was three before the Yankees vs. Rangers game was rained out. Team totals have been nice to us lately; let’s keep running it.

2024 Record: 96-101 (-8.11 U)

Los Angeles Angels vs. Washington Nationals @ 6:45 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Jose Soriano (3.47 ERA) vs. Mitchell Parker (4.06 ERA)

This is a fade on Mitchell Parker and the tired Nationals bullpen. It will likely rain all day, but the rain is projected to let up near game time. The humidity should aid both offenses, but I have more confidence in the Angels hitting over the Nationals.

The Angels bats have looked great over their last five games. They have been over this number in three of their previous five games, including two straight where they destroyed balls left and right. When bad teams find the bats, I ride. There are always little pockets in the season where these bottom dwellers find some momentum.

Mitchell Parker is a fine starter, but he’s coming off a six-inning shutout against the Brewers. Now’s the time to go on the other side, as his xERA and SIERA sit in the mid-fours. He’s below average in every Statcast metric outside of extension, walk rate, and chase rate.

The Angels have a 103 wRC+ against lefties since the All-Star break, 3% above the league average. Since July began, Parker has made six starts, and the opposing offenses are 5-1 to the team total over. Parker put up a 7.89 ERA in July before that six-inning shutout against Milwaukee.

The Angels have the lowest walk rate and strikeout rate in the league since the All-Star break against lefties; they are making a lot of contact. Parker will fill the zone, but his strikeout rate is below 20%, and his overall stuff is below average. Another wrinkle: I hope Taylor Ward returns from paternity leave; he is projected to return today. I’m projecting three runs through 5-6 innings against Parker today with the potential for a blow-up outing.

The Angels should be able to keep the pedal on the gas against this Nationals bullpen. I can only back this Nationals bullpen when the key arms are available, but with multiple rain delays and playing a four-game series, this bullpen is wiped out. They have a 6.58 ERA over their last ten games, about when they traded away two relievers in Floro and Harvey.

Six relievers through 20+ pitches yesterday. Only Jose Ferrer (10.80 ERA) and Joan Adon (6.48 ERA) are on a good rest schedule. Even if Parker outperforms my projection, the Angels can put up multiple runs after he exists.

Soriano is also coming off a shutout outing, and the Angels bullpen is in a decent rest spot. The Angels pitching staff is not what I’m running to the window to bet; it’s the bats. They might win, but I have more faith in them scoring.

The Pick: Angels Team Total Over 4.5 (-105) Risk 1.05 Units

Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Zack Wheeler (2.77 ERA) vs. Ryne Nelson (4.65 ERA)

I don’t care who it is, when, or where it is; the Diamondbacks offense is too hot to have a 3.5-team total. Yes, Zack Wheeler is excellent, but there are reasons to believe the Diamondbacks can hit him today. Even if they struggle, the Phillies bullpen is so taxed that runs should be plentiful late in this game.

The Diamondbacks offense is red-hot against right-handed pitching. Since the All-Star break, they have a 149 wRC+, 49% above league average, while slashing .276/.355/.562 for a .918 OPS, the best in the league during that span.

In the last two weeks, the OPS has climbed to .950, as did the wRC+, climbing to 158, both the best marks in the league. Over the entire season, this Diamondbacks offense ranks in the top ten in wRC+, OPS, batting average, OBP, and Hard-Hit rate. They can hit anybody right now who throws with their right hand.

Wheeler is coming off a beautiful eight-inning shutout. His team needed it then, and of course, he stepped up. That was against the Mariners in T-Mobile Park. He got a lousy offense in a pitcher’s park. Now he gets the hottest offense in baseball against righties. I’ll pay to see him do it again.

He threw a seven-inning shutout against the Twins on July 23, then on July 29th, he gave up seven runs to the Yankees. I’m not implying that will happen, but it’s more likely than a second consecutive shutout.

Wheeler’s props look interesting to me. His lines are easily attainable based on what he’s been doing lately. It can’t be that easy, I think he’s in trouble today.

We bet Dylan Cease CY Young (+2000) because I’m hesitant to back Wheeler moving forward. Splitting hairs, he’s fantastic, but his SIERA is 3.55, FIP at 3.39, and xFIP at 3.53. He’s also worse on the road, with a 3.13 ERA versus a 2.48 ERA. The velocity on his fastball is also a tick lower than last year. He’s vulnerable, but even if I project six innings of two-run ball, I love this team total.

The Phillies bullpen is wiped out. Five of their best pitchers have thrown 28+ pitches over the last three days. Kerkering and Alvarado have thrown on back-to-back days, and Strahm, Estevez, and Hoffman have thrown in two of the previous three games. Jose Ruiz (4.19 ERA) and Yunior Marte (4.63 ERA) should see action tonight, or Tanner Banks, who has thrown seven innings for the Phillies since being acquired by the White Sox. We are fading this Phillies bullpen.

The way I see it, Wheeler gives up two, and the bullpen gives up two. Both units could do worse than these projections, but at 3.5 at this price, we have to fade Wheeler and the Phillies’ pitching staff.

The Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Over 3.5 (-110) Risk 1.1 Units

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500