Was that our best bet of the season? We took the Astros at a great price of +140 and cruised to a 6-0 win. It was never a sweat, as once the Astros took control, the game was over, and the Orioles’ offense was nowhere to be found.

We stay with the underdog theme today with two teams at great prices. 1-1 today gets us in the green, making us profitable in five of our last six days. I want 2-0, let’s roll.

2024 Record: 104-108 (-7.78 U)

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Boston Red Sox @ 10:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Ryne Nelson (4.35 ERA) vs. Brayan Bello (4.80 ERA)

I’m not sure if anyone has noticed, but Ryne Nelson is pitching out of his mind right now. The Diamondbacks have the better bullpen; they’ll have a pitching advantage this entire game. Both offenses are hot, but with the Red Sox struggles in Fenway this season, Arizona should win this game.

Induced vertical breaks on four-seam fastballs give the appearance of the ball “rising” to the hitter. In reality, the ball just isn’t dropping at an average rate due to gravity. The high spin keeps the ball up, so Nelson has been blowing it past hitters for a while now. He put up a 2.41 ERA in July and posted a 3.38 ERA through three starts in August. His strikeout rate is up, his Stuff+ is up, and he has 58 strikeouts to just 11 walks over his last ten starts.

He has a tough start against this Red Sox offense, which has been excellent this season and lately. Over the past two weeks against right-handed pitching, the Red Sox have a 120 wRC+ and a .803 OPS, which place them eighth and fourth, respectively. Since August began, they have the fourth-best OPS and wRC+ in baseball.

Nelson can shutdown this Red Sox offense, but even if he’s around six innings and three runs, the Diamondbacks offense should have our backs.

Brayan Bello will get the ball for Boston. He’s coming off back-to-back excellent starts, but this is a short track record of success. The game before that start, he got hit up by the Royals and put up a 4.29 ERA in July. His ERA is an entire run worse in Fenway, and he also has a challenging matchup against Arizona.

Since August 1, no team has been better against right-handed pitching than the Arizona Diamondbacks. They have the number one OPS at .888 and number one wRC+ at 145. The second best is the Royals at 133, and we saw what they did to Bello. If we only look at the last two weeks, Arizona still ranks number one in OPS and wRC+.

These aren’t slap hitters in the Diamondbacks lineup either; they are hitting for power and ranking second in SLG and first in ISO. It’s a team firing on all cylinders offensively, and they get the weaker starter today.

The bullpen advantage goes toward the Diamondbacks. Both units were rested after an off-day yesterday, but Arizona ranks sixth in bullpen ERA since July 1st, while the Red Sox rank dead last at 6.09. This Red Sox bullpen is terrible, so if the starters get locked in a stalemate, the Snakes have the advantage late.

The Diamondbacks are rolling on the road, winning ten of their last 14 games. The Red Sox are a strange 29-32 at home this year. The home-field advantage is zero here, as Boston has proved this season they are worse at home.

The Red Sox are playing excellent baseball, and Arizona is, too. This line should be closer to -110 on both sides, so I’m happy to play the Snakes as long as they are a plus price.

The Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+115) Risk 1 Unit

San Francisco Giants vs. Seattle Mariners @ 10:10 PM EST

Pitching Matchup: Hayden Birdsong (5.01 ERA) vs. Luis Castillo (3.51 ERA)

The Mariners are -155… in this economy?

I know they have Luis Castillo on the mound, and they’ve performed better at home, but this team is spiraling. They just finished up a 1-8 road trip, during which the offense continued to do nothing. They face a Giants team playing good baseball, winning four of their last five games.

We just faded this offense against Gavin Stone, whose best pitch is also a changeup. The Giants have the better bullpen and better offense. As long as Birdsong can hang with Castillo, we’ll be live this entire game.

They have a new manager, who can often be a jump-starter for a new team, but Dan Wilson will not magically get this team to hit. They rank in the bottom five in xwOBA against righties who feature fastballs, curveballs, sliders, and changeups.

Birdsong has faced two teams that rank below the Mariners against this mix. He dominated the Rockies, both in Coors and at Oracle, for a combined 11 innings of two-run ball with 20 strikeouts. He faced the Guardians on the road and was fine, allowing two runs in 4.2 innings with five strikeouts.

Hayden Birdsong is just 22 years old, and he’s been up and down. Similar to Arrighetti yesterday, there is upside here. In my opinion, the two most important ERA predictors are SIERA and xERA; we’ve spoken about those two at length this season. Birdsong has a 4.13 SIERA and 4.61 xERA, which are both lower than his 5.10 ERA.

I expect him to go at most five innings because he has a rested Giants bullpen behind him that ranks 8th in ERA since July 1st. Jordan Hicks moving back to the bullpen has been significant for him; he’s gone seven straight appearances without allowing a run. Ryan Walker, one of the better relievers in baseball, is fully rested. So are the Rogers brothers who both have ERA’s under three. Erik Miller is also available, a lefty who I’m buying stock in. Love how the arms are set up behind Birdsong.

Luis Castillo is a great pitcher, and he’s better at home, rocking a 2.85 ERA. Castillo’s numbers at home are fantastic; the Mariners are 7-7 in his home starts. Just because he’s excellent doesn’t mean the Mariners constantly win in his home starts.

Castillo has a 3.79 SIERA and a 3.88 xERA. He’s good, but he’s the Mariners’ fourth-best pitcher at the moment. However, he’s priced like an ace. I prefer Kirby and Gilbert, and Woo has been better lately. Regardless of where you rank these pitchers, the numbers say he’s not an ace. I don’t think he’s an ace, but I believe this is an ace price.

Behind Castillo is a bullpen in a good rest spot, but they haven’t been very good. Since July 1, they rank 18th in bullpen ERA, and outside of Munoz and Snider, I can’t rely on any of these arms.

The Mariners have a slight pitching advantage throughout the game just because of the gap between Castillo and Birdsong. It’s minimal at best, and there isn’t an advantage on offense, too. The Mariners have the higher wRC+ in the last two weeks, and the Giants have the lead over the past week.

The manager getting fired can spark a team, and maybe the Mariners do come to play today, but at this price, it’s well worth a shot to find out if that spark is there.

This game is much closer to a coin flip than the market says it is. If Birdsong doesn’t have a terrible outing, we should be live for the entire game. I make the Giants +110, so anything to +120 is a play for me.

The Pick: Giants ML (+130) Risk 1 Unit

These picks are available on BetMGM. Code “JustBaseball” for a first bet offer up to $1500.